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The conclusion of Week 17 in the NFL schedule locks in the 2020 Draft order for non-playoff teams. Between now and April 23rd, multiple versions of this mock draft will be released. This first version will focus only on picks 1-20 since those are the only selections that are currently set in stone.
As a disclaimer, this and every future mock draft edition are based on what I think is best for each team and not on what I think they will actually do. Trades and selections all account for both present and long-term needs of every franchise.
This is the easiest pick to predict in this draft. Joe Burrow possesses all of the traits that a prototypical NFL QB needs to succeed. Selecting Burrow and releasing Andy Dalton frees up cap space that the Bengals can use to strengthen their offensive line. Zac Taylor will have no more excuses for a 2019 repeat performance.
The Redskins could use help at many spots on offense and defense. For a team in their position, the best bet is to go with the generational talent. Chase Young will solidify a defensive line that is already fortified by good, young players. With Young, that defensive front could rival the Gold Rush that has formed in San Francisco.
The Los Angeles Chargers trade the No. 6 overall pick, a 2020 2nd round pick, a 2020 4th round pick, and a 2021 1st round pick to the Detroit Lions for the No. 3 overall pick at a 2020 6th round pick.
With Chase Young off the board, there is no talent at this pick that the Lions cannot secure by moving back a few spots. Los Angeles needs to offer a competitive package in order to jump ahead of teams like Miami who will surely be on the phone with Detroit and New York on draft day. Detroit picks up additional picks to strengthen the multiple holes on both sides of the ball and the Chargers pick up….
The Chargers have everything necessary on both sides of the football to be Super Bowl contenders except for a QB. Tua’s status for 2020 is uncertain. Philip Rivers’ is as well. The Chargers have two options here. Retain Rivers and convince him to take the pay of a transition QB and mentor Tua. If Rivers does not go for that, then Los Angeles would be wise to rely on Tyrod Taylor for 2020 and implement an offense that Tua can easily slide into when his health permits. The success of this move for the Chargers is heavily contingent on their choice of offensive coordinator in the 2020 off season.
Heading into Week 1 of the 2019 season, the receiving options for New York were laughable. While guys like Darius Slayton stepped up nicely, the Giants are starving for a #1 option at the receiver position. Choosing between Jeudy and Lamb is tough, but Jeudy’s route-running ability is going to be critical to helping Daniel Jones get rid of the ball quickly. He needs to hit the jugs machine in order to keep teams like the Giants from focusing too much on his issue with drops this past season.
This is far from a flashy pick and it is certainly not what Dolphins fans are hoping for heading into this draft. It is, however, the smart move. Good offensive linemen are hard to find and this draft is not full of them. Securing a replacement for Laremy Tunsil is the first step in ensuring that whoever steps into the QB position in Miami will survive long enough to produce for them. Andrew Thomas has Pro Bowl ceiling and Brian Flores comes from a system in New England that values that kind of protection for the quarterback.
New England built its defense from back-to-front and that construction began while Matt Patricia was still there. Detroit needs to do the same thing. Partnering Okudah with Darius Slay will help the front-seven on the Lions’ defense get to the QB with more frequency. Thanks to the trade with Los Angeles, Detroit has plenty of picks remaining in this draft to continue beefing up a defense that needs to live up to its head coach’s strengths in order for this team to be successful and for Matt Patricia to stick around after 2020.
QB is currently a need for this team, but between now and April 23rd I am confident that Carolina will have either committed to Cam Newton, placed their faith in Kyle Allen/Will Grier, or resorted to free agency or trade to acquire a starting QB. If not, Justin Herbert would still not be the answer at this pick. The middle of the Panthers’ defense was the primary reason for their weak play against the run. Securing that gap will go a long way to making this defense elite and Brown will do just that.
There is a 0% chance that Kliff Kingsbury passes on a star WR if he falls to him at the eighth pick. CeeDee Lamb can get open quickly for Kyler Murray and he can go up for the big catches down the field. In fact, he did so while they were together in Oklahoma. If Larry Fitzgerald retires, a receiving corps composed of Kirk, Butler, Isabella, and Lamb would set up the Cardinals perfectly for a second run at the air raid offense.
Side note: this selection is an exception to my disclaimer and mainly centered on what I want to see and not what they should do. I really think the Cardinals should go defense with this pick, but Lamb would just be too much fun.
Yannick Ngakoue might be on his way out and ‘sacksonville‘ will need help in the front-seven if it is ever going to earn that nickname again. Simmons’ awareness and speed are elite. He needs to get stronger in order to overcome NFL-sized tackles, but the raw material is there for the Jaguars to secure a strong pass rusher and perennial Pro Bowl player. If they somehow manage to retain Ngakoue, this still would be their best option at this point in the draft. There are plenty of defensive backs that they can swipe in the second or third round.
I am a strong believer in John Dorsey and his ability to construct competitive teams. The offense as constructed is fine and Freddie Kitchens’ termination is a testament to that. The defense needs some work in the secondary. Adebo is long and can play man-coverage with the best of receivers. If Denzel Ward can live up to his potential on the other side, the Browns could walk into 2020 with two lockdown corners and a scary front-seven. Dorsey is doing a fine job of securing talent for this team. His tenure, however, could be cut short if he does not prove as effective in selecting his coaching staff.
This may look weird, but this pick is contingent on Le’Veon Bell getting traded either prior to or during this draft. I do not see both Adam Gase and Bell on the same team next season and it seems as though the Jets will stick with the former. Dobbins runs with the force of a smaller Ezekiel Elliott and has the speed and pass-catching abilities to be an all-purpose back for the Jets. New York could use a CB but, again, this draft is littered with them so there will be one available in the next couple of rounds. Dobbins could provide an upgrade to Bell at a significant discount.
One of the worst pass defenses in the NFL could use the best safety in the nation. The Raiders, as Jon Gruden consistently states, are building their football team. Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby anchor a defensive line that could use some help in the middle. Mayock and Gruden seem to be opting to stick with veterans at the linebacker position. That leaves the secondary to be constructed through the draft. Delpit will serve as a strong force along the returning Johnathan Abraham. If Trayvon Mullen and Isaiah Johnson can build off strong rookie campaigns, this defense could look drastically different as soon as they hit Las Vegas.
Jacoby Brissett is not the answer at QB for Indianapolis. The Colts have done an outstanding job of building a solid team on both sides of the football. This places them in a position where they do not have to trade up for a star QB. Herbert is not outstanding at any one thing, but he has NFL-caliber talent at every aspect of quarterback play. He has played behind an experienced offensive line this season at Oregon and would walk into the Colts’ locker room with similar quality protection. He also does not have to start right away and can have time to develop behind Brissett.
A true ‘shutdown corner’ is how Henderson is being characterized. The Bucs need to replace Vernon Hargreaves and start building a secondary that can compete with the outstanding performance of the front-seven in 2019. I don’t see Bruce Arians moving away from Jameis Winston, which means that Tampa Bay will have no need to trade up for a QB and can sit at this spot to work on their defense.
A receiver might be a good option, but there are plenty of those left in this draft and I do not see Vic Fangio resisting anybody who can beef up his defense. The front seven started looking like their ceiling could rival that of Fangio’s defense in Chicago. With Chris Harris Jr.’s future being uncertain, Hall could benefit Denver’s secondary greatly.
Kinlaw is pure speed and power. Atlanta’s defense has been just the opposite for the past two years. Dan Quinn plays in a division where he needs to apply pressure quickly to Drew Brees, clog up the middle against Christian McCaffrey, and maintain Tampa Bay’s stud receivers under control. Kinlaw can’t do that all on his own, but his presence as an anchor for that front seven will certainly be a huge help.
Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Justin Jefferson. Even Jason Garrett could not mismanage that trio. Right? Right??? The Cowboys could go in a number of different directions with this pick, but the drafting Jefferson and locking down Cooper could set up this offense for consistency in the years to come regardless of who ends up leading this ship. Jefferson’s Peach Bowl performance surely raised his draft stock, but if he is there at this pick then I am certain Jerry Jones will ensure that he stays in the south.
The Dolphins traded away Minkah Fitzpatrick, a former first-round safety from Alabama, to the Steelers for a first-round pick. Now, they replace Fitzpatrick with another first-round safety from Alabama. McKinney is a leader. He will not succeed in one-on-one coverage frequently, so it is critical that the defensive backfield surrounds him with shutdown corners that he can lead. This selection will provide Brian Flores with a young leader for his defense and can begin the construction of a secondary that can assist the pass rush by buying them a few more seconds of coverage.
Let the defensive construction continue. With Delpit already solidifying the center of the secondary, Davis’ selection will serve to provide much needed pressure up the middle of the defensive line. Ferrell and Crosby will benefit greatly in their pass rushing efforts and the run defense efficacy will improve as well on account of Davis.
There is no way to replace Jalen Ramsey, but the would-be Rams’ first-round pick will serve as an attempt to supplant some of the former Jaguar’s production. Fulton is not a lockdown corner and relied heavily on safety assistance from Delpit all season. Jacksonville’s defense, however, is one of the best at working together and Fulton will slide in perfectly with a system that relies on heavy pass rush and zone coverage.
That does it! Stay tuned for Mock Draft 2.0 coming after the Super Bowl in February.
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