Michael Penix Jr 2024 NFL Draft Profile
The 2024 NFL Draft Profile series tackles the task of evaluating Michael Penix Jr. Where does the Washington quarterback stack up to the rest of the class for the 2024 NFL Draft? We both know that’s why you’re here so let’s get on with it. Here is your Michael Penix Jr. 2024 NFL Draft Profile!
Before I begin, has anyone seen that Apple TV series ‘Dynasty’ on the Patriots? It’s complete trash. It’s basically a political campaign trying to tell you how great Robert Kraft is while trying to smear Bill Belichick having nothing to do with the success in New England. That’s how I feel about Penix. Someone deserves credit for what happened with Penix’s college career. I just don’t think it’s actually the player himself.
If you came for a puff piece on Penix, you came to the wrong place. I’m down on Penix compared to the rest of the pundits in the media and we’re going to go over why. Penix is a non-starter to me if you’re drafting him as a franchise quarterback. Something you won’t have problems finding why during the stock report series.
Whether it be the game against Michigan , how Cam Ward outperformed him in rivalry week, or the fact that he’s broken mechanically, I’m just out here. Credit where credit is due, he was fantastic against Texas (But the real college football consumers know Texas’ secondary was trash last year. They were good up front stopping the run though).
If you’re a Penix believer, you don’t have to listen to me. Just know that history is on my side. Quarterbacks who are too stiff in the lower half have failed over and over and over and over again at the NFL level. The best and most elastic quarterbacks at the position have found ways to rise to the top. It’s like Mitch Trubisky PTSD watching Penix. His front leg is planted the same as Trubisky on every single throw. I told you Trubisky was going to suck . Penix isn’t quite as terrible and comes with more production but he’s beyond broken in the lower half. By the way, if you think Penix is the same level pocket passer as Tua, please seek professional help. The Tua comps need to stop. They are not the same and they do not apply simply because both are lefties.
There are reasons to believe in Penix. If Al Davis were still alive, I can almost guarantee he would be their pick. While stiff and broken in the lower half, Penix is a plus athlete. I don’t know why anybody was surprised by his 40 time but he was recruited as a duel-threat guy and made big plays in the run game in the past. He has that one famous run in the end zone helping guide Indiana to a win over Penn State. Penix, a former three star guy out of the state of Florida, ran a 4.46 and jumped 36.5 inches on the vertical at his pro day. In reality, he’s probably a 4.57 guy without the fishy Pro Day Times. Still, a plus pure athlete for the position.
Penix is the Hendon Hooker of this draft. Got paired with a coach in the transfer portal and totally upped his draft stock. The way they play the game is similar too. Penix has this weird ability to cross his entire body up but place these layered throws on a dime. Penix averaged 9.2 yards per attempt ranking 11th in the nation. It’s all high low read where Penix is trusted to make big plays down the field. Had absurd efficiency on those deep ball throws too.
The problem is not every game is the same in the Pac 12. We saw what happened against Michigan. Too many bodies in the paint and Penix was terrible. It’s just worth mentioning that Penix never faced that level of adversity at any other point in the year. Penix was very good at avoiding sacks but a large part has to do with that Washington offensive line. He quite literally did not get sneezed on. Penix was sacked just 31 times in 1,759 career dropbacks. His offensive line won the Joe Moore Award and they will send multiple players to the NFL this year.
Michael Penix Under Pressure: 6.9 YPA, 39.2% completion rate, 12-7 TD to INT ratio
It’s by far the worst numbers of any top quarterback in this draft class. Keep in mind, he stunk under pressure while throwing to four weapons that are about to enter the NFL ranks. A top ten pick at receiver and two other receivers who will be drafted in the middle rounds. Plus a huge tight end that will be taken later as a flier. He was already throwing prayer balls up for Odunze as it was with him getting bailed out multiple times. On the rare occasions, Penix was under pressure (Which was about 3% of the time. Not even kidding. That’s a real number), mechanically it’s gross to watch. Stiff leg fadeaway cheese resulting in accurate throws. On the move on throws outside the pocket, it’s gross in a bad way.
The Combine revealed all of that stuff. Has absolutely no idea how to use his back foot. His lower half is broken. It’s the same reason why Carson Strong was never going to succeed and he had real arm talent. Bodies in the paint, he’s going to have bad misses. The one positive from the Combine is that he has enormous hands and throws a really good spiral. Checks in at 6-foot-2, 216, with 10.5 inch hands. The lower body stuff is just not going to improve. Multiple ACL tears and lower body injuries. ACL tears in 2018 and 2020. Then had bad shoulder problems in 2019 and 2021. He’s impossible to defend in the injury history department. It’s a solid B to B+ arm though. Can make rope throws down the field.
One thing to keep in mind is the fact that he was in shotgun about 90% of the time. I say that because it’s important to note that he’s been terrible in every single season Kalen DeBoer hasn’t been his head coach. Again, I mentioned this during the JJ McCarthy profile . Penix turns 24 in May. When Penix was 21, he was viewed as a CFL player. In 2021, he had a 4-7 TD to INT ratio prior to getting hurt. That’s as a 4th year starter completing under 54%. His only positive season at Indiana is with DeBoer as his offensive coordinator. The numbers at Indiana without DeBoer are tragic level terrible.
The numbers at Washington with DeBoer are obviously really good. 67-29 TD to INT ratio in two years with the Huskies. Won the Maxwell Award, Davey O’Brien Award (nation’s top QB), Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (nation’s top QB), and Walter Camp Player of the Year Award in 2023. Led all of FBS with 4,903 passing yards.
I have a 5th round grade on Michael Penix Jr. He’s just too flawed to me for the several reasons I’ve said. Too many years doing this where guys like him fail. Already at an advanced age and he’s probably already peaked into what he is. Wouldn’t mind having him in the room to be a backup but handing him the keys as a franchise quarterback and paying him big time money is a death sentence to being fired as a general manager.
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