JJ McCarthy 2024 NFL Draft Profile
JJ McCarthy is one of the biggest risers during the 2024 NFL Draft process. I guess it’s warranted when you win a National Championship at Michigan. McCarthy is going out on top for the college ranks but can he become a successful NFL starting quarterback? Let’s talk about it. Here is your JJ McCarthy 2024 NFL Draft Profile!
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McCarthy is one of the more intriguing prospects to talk about at the QB position. It feels like everyone has a different opinion of him. The truth is, a lot of these quarterbacks need help. Who is your head coach and who is your play caller? McCarthy has enough athletic traits that teams should feel confident a franchise quarterback is in there if they develop him correctly. Jordan Love never had a prayer if he had to start day one. I hope teams apply the same logic when trying to develop the former Michigan product.
Checking in at 6-foot-2, 219, the pure tools give teams a reason to feel excited about his future. People miss on quarterbacks for one reason more than anything else. They’re unable to project them forward. What people should be doing is comparing Sam Howell to the rest of the draft class. We have pro tape on Howell (who semi succeeded in Washington) and was traded for nothing. How much better is McCarthy (name whoever in this class) compared to Howell? That’s the question you should be asking.
With McCarthy, it’s pretty easy to project him forward. There are things to love with his future projection. He’s very athletic. Didn’t run at the Combine but it would have been a really good time. Speaking of the Combine, McCarthy had an unreal showing. Displayed a lot of skills translatable to the NFL level. Drives the ball off his back foot. Has real arm power. It’s a solid A- arm strength. Very compact in his movement skills. Doesn’t have an elongated release. Very easy mover. Struggles throwing left more than right but he throws a good ball and it comes out easy. Sometimes you actually want him to take some mustard off his throws.
By the way, McCarthy’s 3-Cone Drill time of 6.82 was tied for sixth-best at the combine and the best time for a QB. He’s fast. I don’t need to see it on a 40.
The recruiting background stacks up too. His high school tape is really good. Former four star guy bordering on five star. Was a top performer at the Elite 11 camp. Ended his high school career at powerhouse IMG and won a state title. Two year starter in college but got some run right away as a freshman. Has never looked out of place athletically.
McCarthy, 21, doesn’t have the biggest frame in terms of thickness but still has room to grow. Hasn’t hit his ceiling yet. When Bo Nix was 21, he sucked at Auburn and had to leave. When Michael Penix was 21, he looked like a CFL QB. When Jayden Daniels was 21, he posted a 10-10 TD to INT ratio and probably would have been taken in the 6th round out of Arizona State. McCarthy seized the job at Michigan and deserves credit for leading his team to a title at such a young age.
There is going to be discourse about how difficult life was for McCarthy at Michigan. In reality, there are two sides to the coin. Yes, the run game was the center of the universe for Michigan. Most notably the Penn State game where they didn’t attempt a single pass in the second half. Did Michigan not trust McCarthy? When you do more digging, you find out real quick that his left tackle sucked and Jim Harbaugh has always believed in a complimentary football style of play.
There is real growth here. In year one as a starter, McCarthy compiled a stat line that includes 64.6%, 22-5 TD to INT ratio, and 8.4 yards per attempt. Those numbers improved to 72.3%, a 22-4 TD to INT ratio, and nine yards per attempt. He has some production as a runner too notching over 500 yards over the last two years.
One thing can’t be denied with McCarthy. His third down tape is really good. The only concerning part is that the only game he had bad third down tape was against Alabama, a team that’s most similar to NFL competition. Again, the only downside to McCarthy right now is the fact that he tries to force the issue sometimes. Too much heat on the heater. If he can become a guy that throws the ball through the keyhole rather than trying to blast it though the door, he’s going to make it.
You can’t deny what he does on third down. Keep in mind, this is the part where Michigan asked him to make big plays. Sometimes when you run, run, run, you find yourself in third and long situations. Nobody was better in the country. McCarthy executed 55.1% of third down conversions when it was seven yards or longer. There wasn’t another quarterback in the draft class that was at 40%. On 4th or 7 or longer, McCarthy was a perfect seven for seven. Something to be said for a guy that can move the chains in difficult situations.
The NFL is becoming more and more about what you can on the second play. The great ones can adapt and turn something into nothing. On scramble situations, McCarthy completed 71.4% of his throws. Nobody else in the draft class was above 60%.
Throws like that win football games and there is something to being a winner. McCarthy can claim that title firmly. He was 36-2 in high school including an undefeated season at IMG. He also went 27-1 in college as a starter. He was trusted by Harbaugh and was tasked with setting protections. He’s a smart kid. Very familiar with being under center and running a pro style system. He’s also very comfortable operating in play action. In play action, McCarthy went 61-80 (76.3 percent) and 10.7 yards per attempt. Of course, a good amount of that damage was in RPO shotgun actions.
JJ McCarthy won his fair share of accolades beyond a National Championship. He won the Griese-Brees Big Ten QB of the Year, First-team All-Big Ten Conference, and was a finalist for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award. Also posted a school record completing 67.6 percent of his career passes and also had the lowest career INT percentage (1.54).
The feet are tied to the arm, which is very important. Operates really well throwing the ball in the middle of the field. Will miss his fair share of routine throws but that should come with maturity. Sometimes gets off balance when it’s not necessary. Struggles a bit with bodies in the paint and can make panic decisions. Keep in mind, he didn’t exactly have a 50-50 jump ball guy at Michigan. Tries to fit balls in tight windows but could let it go a little bit more in non-third down situations. Half field reader but functions better going right. Very good internal clock and can play fast. McCarthy’s career sack (4.3%) and pressure-to-sack (14.3%) are both among best in the class. Knows when to get rid of the ball. Just not perfect and has his fair share of turnover worthy plays.
The biggest stamp of approval has come from his former coach at Michigan. Harbaugh basically has said over and over again that he’s the best thing since sliced bread. Harbaugh says McCarthy is the best quarterback in the draft. Although, I think I actually might agree with him on the fact that he had the best Pro Day of any quarterback in the class. It was a really good workout. While some of Harbaugh’s praise comes with a position of leverage having Justin Herbert on the roster, what more teams should be doing is putting Jim’s money with his mouth is. If Harbaugh likes McCarthy so much, why aren’t more teams sending in offers for Herbert? What does Harbaugh say when you broach that subject? I’d love to be in the room when someone smart asks that question.
Harbaugh knows JJ McCarthy well and I don’t think he’s totally blowing smoke. Maybe some of it is inflated but there are reasons why Harbaugh feels this way. He’s got some swag and you can tell he’s got a chip on his shoulder. Cares about winning above stats and is selfless in that way. Has a good brain on him. Good at relocating to spots to complete balls and plays an efficient game while taking necessary risks down the field. Pure ball placement needs to improve but god does it look pretty when executed right. Big time throws is what beat Ohio State.
I have JJ McCarthy as QB 3 in this draft class behind Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. It’s a firm first round grade but is in need of a developmental year. Has the potential to become a more athletic Aaron Rodgers but needs to keep maturing and improving. Could see things going south for McCarthy. Could be another Kyle Allen if not taken care of properly. Just has too many things pointing in his favor to not be worth the risk. In reality, the risk is not doing your job as a development organization.
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