Bo Nix 2024 NFL Draft Profile
Bo Nix feels like he was in college forever. Now he’s finally about to join the NFL ranks. Does the former Oregon quarterback have a chance to become a franchise quarterback? Let’s talk about it in this next volume of the 2024 NFL Draft Profile series!
Nix, 24, will turn 25 in February. Nobody has made more collegiate starts than Nix in this draft class. We have 61 college starts to work with here. There is no shortage of tape to look at with Nix. Ideally, you prefer a guy with a lot of collegiate experience. In this case, it may just be going a bit too far with it given that Nix is already at an advanced age.
We’re not just talking about a guy who has a lot of college starts. Nix has been on the national radar for a long time even prior to joining the college ranks. Nix was rated a four star prospect coming out of high school. He was listed as a five star for a long time but got a slight dip after what was a shaky performance at the Elite 11 camp. Reigning out of the state of Alabama, Nix was rated as the number two duel threat quarterback in the class and number three overall athlete in the state. The high school accolades are real. Nix won Gatorade Player of the Year in Alabama for 2018 and Alabama’s Mr. Football for 2018. They don’t just hand that award out to bums. Not in the South.
Nix attended Auburn and he has family ties to the University. His father, Patrick, played quarterback at Auburn and is a high school football coach. Yes, Nix is a coach’s son. However, it might be worth mentioning that the former Auburn quarterback threw some shade at the football culture in the South. Maybe these comments aren’t the end of the world but I’d prefer Nix to not take a dump on a place he didn’t succeed at. A place he has family ties to. The SEC is a different animal for a reason and if you can’t survive in that Conference, maybe you’re not an NFL player.
That’s going to be the crux of the argument with Nix. He was really, really, really bad at Auburn. We’ve already talked about that recruiting profile as a duel threat guy. Well, for three years the guy couldn’t throw the ball and if he stayed at Auburn maybe it would have never happened for him. In three years with the Tigers across 34 starts, Nix completed 59.4% of his throws with a 39-16 TD to INT ratio to go along with 6.9 yards per attempt. What’s worse is that he showed almost zero progression during that time. Keep in mind, JJ McCarthy is 21 ( link to McCarthy’s profile here ). At 21 Nix was viewed, at least by me, as completely undraftable .
The transfer portal is becoming a bigger and bigger focus on draft prospects. Something we don’t have a ton of historical data on. How much of Nix’s improvement was within and how much of it was Oregon redefining the player? Never underestimate the effect an environment can have on the quarterback. Nix has certainly maturated and there is one thing that can’t be denied. The recruiting industry deserves so much credit for spotting the talent because once Nix figured out how to throw the ball, he became a pretty good player.
If you’re drafting Nix, you really have to do a deep dive on this Oregon offense. Mostly because it’s a Mickey Mouse offense. It was a lot of smoke and mirrors while resembling nothing that he will be asked to do at the NFL level. Approximately 30% of Nix’s attempts in 2023 were thrown BEHIND the line of scrimmage. That’s a staggering amount. Oregon focused on getting the ball out of Nix’s hands as fast as possible. The depth of target being an obvious concern. Nix ranked first in the draft class in regards to release time per attempt (2.5 seconds). That mark would have ranked 4th in the NFL this past season. Tua Tagovailoa was at 2.38, which isn’t a surprise considering the unique nature of the Dolphins offense. It’s just pointing out the play style of Nix and what you’re going to ask him to do.
Ideally, a Sean Payton offense would be perfect for Nix. Quick minded and quick footed. Ball out quick. Read this read, read this read, make a decision, and protect the football. That’s what Nix does and he’s been productive when put in the proper environment. Can make plays outside of structure too. Has enough athletic traits and arm power.
In terms of pure movement stuff, I didn’t totally love what I saw at the Combine . I think it’s very much a B arm. Struggles just letting it rip. Pure ball accuracy isn’t elite. Plus athlete but the ball never jumps out of his hands. Inconsistent in the lower half.
What’s funny is the fact that Nix almost functions better in those off-platform throws. We saw that on display multiple times last year. Being able to be an adaptor while making big strikes down the field is an important element in modern football. Nix can very much do that.
Nix was really good at Oregon and his numbers are so jarring that they’re hard to ignore. Completed 71.9% of his throws in 2022 to go along with a 29-7 TD to INT ratio at 8.8 yards per attempt. This year those numbers jumped to 77.4% with a 45-3 TD to INT ratio at 9.6 yards per attempt. I don’t care who you are, 45-3 at nearly 80% is just insane production.
The problem is maybe we should get too carried away with it. Two quarterbacks that sort of look like Nix are Marcus Mariota and Zach Wilson. Mariota had a 42-4 TD to INT ratio his final year at Oregon (and I always thought Mariota sucked ). Wilson was at 33-3 his final year at BYU. What do those numbers look like if Nix finishes at Auburn and is forced to play in the SEC?
To his credit, there are obvious signs of maturity and growth. He’s done a great job at protecting the ball. He’s been dangerous throwing the ball on the move. Since his days at Auburn, he’s done an incredible job of avoiding sacks and creating positive plays that otherwise weren’t made early in his college career. His eye level has improved. He can create yards in the run game but has gotten way better building through reads making the right play. Just much better with the internal clock and even built confidence with a savvy pump fake.
Just don’t totally love everything as a pure pocket passer. Ball hangs up in the air too long sometimes. Dropping balls on a dime down the field isn’t always there. A lot of the production was created by Troy Franklin making YAC plays. Depth of target is way down compared to others in the class.
I have a third round grade on Bo Nix. There are reasons to believe Nix can develop into a capable starting quarterback. Something you would have never gotten me to say three years ago. However, he’s got enough athletic traits to survive at the NFL level and his recruiting profile stacks up to what’s required. Just don’t put him in a bad spot and ask him to do things he can’t or you will get another failed Marcus Mariota / Zach Wilson experience. He’s going to have to become the more athletic Drew Brees while building on his quick rhythm and timing game. That’s your best case scenario.
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