Does Josh Allen Suck In Cold Weather?
Credit to NESN. They recently came out with a great post detailing weird stats for all the playoff teams. Oddly enough, it would appear Josh Allen is really bad in cold weather, which doesn’t really make any sense for a number of reasons. Maybe we should start to ask the question of whether Josh Allen is a bad cold weather quarterback?
“One stat to know: Josh Allen has a career 54.3 passer rating when the temperature is 32 degrees or colder
The Bills quarterback played his college ball at Wyoming and has spent his entire NFL career in Buffalo, so you’d think he’d know a thing or two about playing in frigid temperatures. In fact, it’s been the opposite, as he has completed just a tick above half of his pass attempts, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and seven interceptions. Of all the quarterbacks with at least 65 cold-weather dropbacks left in the playoffs, Allen’s passer rating is by far the worst. Somehow, Buffalo is 3-1 in those games and will seek another victory Saturday night versus the Patriots with temperatures hovering around zero.”
It’s an interesting stat but one that I think deserves context. Buffalo is the hardest cold weather environment that exists. Remember that game Mac Jones threw the ball twice? Allen deals with that weather every week. Allen is also winning a number of these games where the opposing quarterback performs way worse.
Derek Carr, whom I’m fond of, has bad cold weather stats too. Luckily, he plays in a dome. Buffalo or Green Bay has the most severe weather conditions. It’s just the way the cookie crumbles.
One could argue that maybe the Bills should invest in a dome for Allen. I just think it’s a bad interpretation. Allen has the best pure arm strength in the league. He gives the Bills an advantage with that arm strength in those bad weather games. Allen can simply make throws others can’t.
The numbers might say one thing but this stat feels like one of those bad analytical baseball stats. We understand what the numbers say but it would be rather stupid to suggest the Bills should build a dome to prevent the one advantage Allen gives the Bills over any other visiting team.
It should also be mentioned that the Bills can’t run the football at all. Zack Moss averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Buffalo doesn’t trust Devin Singletary at all even though his numbers are respectable. The lack of a run game obviously puts way too much pressure to carry an offense in bad weather conditions.
For now, this stat feels fluky but it will be interesting to monitor if the eyeball test says that Allen looks more uncomfortable than visiting quarterbacks in the playoffs moving forward.
