Is the Buffalo Bills Early Success Sustainable?

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season so far. Not many NFL analysts would have predicted that the Bills would have a 4-1 record a quarter into the year. It’s a great start, but can they finish?

A Little Bit of Reality

Let’s get some of the bad out of the way first. A 4-1 record is nothing to take lightly. Though it is worth noting that the four teams that Buffalo beat are not that great (two of those four teams don’t have a win this season). The games have been close and the Bills offense hasn’t put up big numbers. The Bills offense ranks 28th in points scored per game (18) and 12th in yards per game (372.4). Each game, except for the win against the Giants, have been decided by a touchdown or less. I will always say that a win is a win, but beating bad teams buy a point or two is not a good look.

However, the defense has been the brightest spot for this team. The defense is giving up just 275 yards per game, good for 3rd in the entire NFL. The offense hasn’t had to score more than 20 points because the defense isn’t allowing teams to score more than two touchdowns.

Easy Wins/Probable Losses

Good news for Bills fans, they play the Miami Dolphins twice this year. Might as well as count both of those games as wins. The Bills also have what should be easy(ish) wins against the Redskins, Broncos and Steelers. Offense for these teams are pretty much nonexistent. The Bills defense should feast on the lack of QB quality. 5 easy wins gives the Bills 9 total. Not too shabby.

Sorry Bills fans, but another meeting with the Patriots, as well as the Cowboys and Eagles may not end well. Buffalo was able to keep it close with New England in their previous meeting, but next time will be in Foxborough, a tough place for anyone to come in and get a win.

What could be the Season

Let’s say what was previous said comes 100% true, the Bills would be rocking a record of 9-4. Nine wins is a good number, but the Raiders and Colts (assuming the Houston Texans win the AFC South) have played pretty well also. The magic number could be 10, maybe even 11 wins to make the Wild Card.

Three games could make or break the season: against the Browns, Ravens and Jets. The Bills have already played the Jets once this season and won. The Jets defense has gotten significantly worse because of injury, and Sam Darnold has missed most of the early season because of mono. Without Darnold, the Jets offense has been absolute trash. Barring anymore injury, he will be back in what will be the final game for both teams for the season.

The Browns and Ravens are intriguing games. The Browns have fallen flat on their butts this year. Quarterback Baker Mayfield talks a lot of talk but is yet to back any of it up. After a hot start, the Ravens and QB Lamar Jackson have come back down to earth and are the middle road team we expected them to be. In the early stages of the season, it looks like only one of these teams will make the playoffs (by way of division winner). Both QBs have something to prove and every game will be important.

Conclusion

If the Bills go 2-1 in these questionable games, then they will defiantly make the playoffs. The biggest factor will be the play of Josh Allen. Allen HAS to take a step forward for the Buffalo Bills to continue their success. An injury to a key defensive player or one bad game by the defense could mean a loss to a really awful team that should have been a win. That is a nightmare scenario for Bills fans.

I’m personally rooting for the Bills to keep it up. I love their defense and am a sucker for underdog stories. But for me, and the rest of America, to fully buy into the Buffalo Bills, Allen has to play at a high level. The Bills season rest in the hands of Allen. All he has to do is play consistent, and if he does, then the Bills have the potential to make some noise.

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