A lot of times in fantasy, the environment makes or breaks the wide receiver. Does he have a bad defense behind him forcing more shoot outs? Is the head coach more committed to the run? Does he have an unproven quarterback? In the case of Stefon Diggs, he pretty much has everything stacked against him. Good defense, unproven quarterback, and a team that wants to run the ball. Diggs is even in Buffalo now. The difference between playing in a dome and playing in Buffalo with snow could ruin his fantasy projections alone. Diggs’ fantasy outlook doesn’t look at fruitful as it would on other teams. Having said all of that, there are reasons to be encouraged.
Will Stefon Diggs be a fantasy superstar with the Bills? There are reasons to say yes. Diggs’ target share decreased by a big margin this past year in Minnesota. The former 5th round pick from Maryland saw his target share get slashed by 37 percent from the 2018 season. It went from 149 in 2018 to just 94 last year. The Vikings were a very run heavy team with Dalvin Cook and that wouldn’t have changed this year.
While the move to Buffalo feels murky, it probably helps Diggs. John Brown was the leading receiver last year with 114. If Diggs simply just takes on that number in 2020, we’re looking at 20 additional balls thrown his way. There’s a chance that target share number could be even higher. Stefon Diggs is better than John Brown. There is also a good chance the Bills open up the offense more and let Josh Allen go out there and spin the ball around. It’s time to take the training wheels off him.
Speaking of Josh Allen, don’t you trust him to execute the deep ball more than Kirk Cousins? That’s where this fit with Diggs has a chance to exceed expectations. Diggs is the perfect wide receiver for a quarterback like Josh Allen. To this point, Allen has really played the game like a young Cam Newton. Big arm with a rushing component to his game. Accuracy? Hard pass. That’s been what Josh Allen has been thus far.
The good news is Buffalo didn’t make the mistakes Carolina did with Cam. Accuracy was a problem for both. Dumb ass Dave Gettleman thought it was a good idea to draft 6-foot-5 giants who couldn’t separate at all. Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess were both contested catch guys who could win the ball in the air but needed it thrown in a specific spot. That’s not what Cam needed and it wasn’t his strength. It did a big disservice to Cam during his prime years. Buffalo hasn’t made that mistake. They built a team around Josh Allen that should have been suited for Cam Newton many years prior.
*I should clarify. Buffalo was dumb enough to trade for Kelvin Benjamin but quickly realized how they needed the direct opposite skillset.
Buffalo has a type. Short wide outs who either have speed or can get open with route running. Cole Beasley can win with his route running. Allen doesn’t have to be precise with accuracy. John Brown can win with speed. All Allen has to do it chuck it deep and let Brown run under it. Arm strength isn’t a problem for Josh Allen. Stefon Diggs will fit in just fine.
Diggs averaged 17.9 yards per reception a year ago. He also scored 4 touchdowns of at least 40 yards or more which led the league. Both of those numbers seem more than achievable with a quarterback who is more catered to throw the deep ball anyway.
So how should you treat Stefon Diggs when it comes to fantasy? There isn’t an easy answer. There are reasons to like Diggs. There are reasons to not like him in terms of fantasy potential. It’s going to be a fascinating storyline to follow.