UFC Mexico City Preview and Predictions
The UFC is taking the octagon to Mexico for the first time since 2019. The promotion is putting up shop in Mexico City, Mexico, and bringing the organization’s top Mexican talent to help put on a show. That includes former champion Brandon Moreno and former interim champion Yair Rodriguez. The inclusion of former champions in the main and co-main event also resulted in a special five-round co-main event. If that is not enough, the main card is rounded out with some of the best up-and-coming Mexican talent.
Join Vendetta Sports Media as we preview and predict the UFC Mexico City main card. You can find our 2024 prediction records below.
James: 16-9
Garrett: 12-13
Anthony: 10-15
Jerry: 12-13
Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan- Lightweight Bout
James: The UFC Mexico City main card opponents with a lightweight banger between Manuel Torres and Chris Duncan. Torres and Duncan have both started their UFC careers strong with identical 2-0 UFC records. Torres has caught attention with two first-round knockouts while Duncan showed solid skills in decision victories.
In the first round, Torres carries a ton of knockout power. In 14 professional fights, he has 10 first-round finishes. That power is demonstrated in his straight shots, elbows, and counters.
Duncan is a brawler who has slightly changed his style upon entering the UFC. In recent fights, he has been more patient and wrestled more frequently to decrease the amount of boxing exchanges he participates in.
Duncan’s ability to survive early striking exchanges will determine the winner of the bout. The goal for Duncan should be to stay on the outside while initiating early grappling exchanges. That should keep him safe and help him elongate the fight. If he survives early, he should have the superior cardio. That said, the Mexico City elevation could affect any fighter’s cardio. Still, Duncan has shown to be a tough fighter that fights hard. That is always a positive. I will take Duncan by second-round knockout.
Garrett: Torres via submission
Jerry: Duncan via decision
Anthony: Torres via KO/TKO
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes- Women’s Strawweight Bout
James: The UFC Mexico City main card features a women’s strawweight bout between Yazmin Jauregui and Sam Hughes. Jauregui, 24, burst onto the scene with an absolute war against Iasmin Lucindo. That fight and her subsequent win over Istela Nunes made her a serious prospect to watch; however, her hype was stalled with a knockout loss to Denise Gomes. Now, she is looking to get back in the win column against Hughes. At 3-4, Hughes’ record is not appealing. Although, she has been successful in her most recent outings as she sports a 3-1 record in her last four. Despite not being an elite fighter, Hughes is a fair opponent for the 24-year-old prospect.
Jauregui is an aggressive boxer who pressures opponents with forward movement and volume. That typically yields success because she is physical and powerful with respectable technique. If she is forced to move backward, she can land hard counters. On the ground, she is raw, but her physicality translates to grappling. Plus, she is aggressive with ground-and-pound from the top position.
Hughes is a tough fighter with great cardio. In college, Hughes was a distance runner on the track team. That can be seen in her fight style as she can fight hard for three rounds. That allows her to become a much more efficient fighter in the later rounds.
This UFC Mexico City preview heavily favors Jauregui. In previous outings, she has shown the ability to fight hard for three rounds. That makes me optimistic that she can maintain pace against a fighter that relies on a cardio advantage. Plus, she is the more physical fighter and the more skilled striker. That is a lot to like about Jauregui. I will take Jauregui by second-round knockout.
Garrett: Jauregui via TKO
Jerry: Jauregui via decision
Anthony: Jauregui via decision
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios- Bantamweight Bout
James: At UFC Mexico City, Raul Rosas Jr. will fight Ricky Turcios. Rosas, 19, became the youngest fighter in UFC history when the UFC signed him at just 17 years old. In the UFC, he was rushed into a tough fight against Christian Rodriguez that stalled his progress. Still, he has a 2-1 record in the promotion and is skilled for his age. Turcios was the winner of The Ultimate Fighter Season 29, but his hype has fizzled out. At 2-1, his UFC run has not been bad and he is only 30. That gives him time to make a run.
Rosas is a very raw fighter. That is fair considering his age. The peak of his skill set is his submission ability. Rosas has shown solid takedowns and can transition to strong positions once he lands takedowns. The flaws in his game can largely be seen in his striking and cardio. On the feet, he can land shots, but he is not efficient or clean. What’s more concerning is that his only loss came after gassing out early in the fight.
Turcios is a chaotic fighter that grapples at a high rate. It is not clean grappling, but it comes early and often. Plus, he does not defend takedowns well which allows his opponent to find grappling success. On the feet, he is just as chaotic and he throws a ton of strikes.
This UFC Mexico City preview favors Rosas. It seems like he is being put in a position to find success. Turcios’ lack of takedown defense and chaotic grappling should allow Rosas to land takedowns and advance position. I expect Rosas to take Turcios’ back and land a rear naked choke. I will take Rosas by first-round submission.
Garrett: Rosas via decision
Jerry: Rosas via submission
Anthony: Rosas via submission
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado- Lightweight Division
James: The UFC Mexico City feature bout is a lightweight scrap between Daniel Zellhuber and Francisco Prado that previews to be a fight of the night contender. Zellhuber and Prado are both young prospects who have shown serious talent. Zellhuber has a career record of 14-1 with a 2-1 UFC record while Prado sits with a 12-1 career record and a 1-1 promotional record. That makes this bout impactful for both fighters’ careers as the winner will cement themselves as a high-level prospect.
At six-foot-one with a 75-inch reach, Zellhuber, 24, is a long lightweight. In fights, he utilizes his length with straight punches, knees, and front kicks. Zellhuber will sit on the outside and throw jabs and teeps. This helps him win minutes. If he is looking to land more powerful shots, he is good at using a double jab to set up his right hand. If he opts to deviate from his typical center-line attacks, he has quality hooks and kicks. As he progresses, those tools should become more common.
Prado, 21, has impressive boxing skills on the interior. The Argentinian has power in his hands and lands with impact. In pocket exchanges, Prado moves his head, looks for counters, and throws tight hooks. Despite not being a great grappler, his ground-and-pound is impressive.
This fight is the toughest fight to preview on the UFC Mexico City main card. It is not easy to predict exactly how a 24 and 21-year-old will perform. Each fighter can fall to the pressure of a feature bout in front of a packed arena. At the same time, they could have made massive improvements in their time off. Based on the information we have, Zellhuber should be able to win the minutes with his jab and front kicks. Although, Prado could use his powerful interior boxing to land shots on the inside. In those highs, Prado will need to finish the fight or land enough damage to swing the scorecards in his favor. It is a risky pick, but I think he can accomplish that. I will take Prado by decision.
Garrett: Zellhuber via TKO
Jerry: Prado via KO/TKO
Anthony: Zellhuber via decision
No. 3 Yair Rodriguez vs. No. 4 Brian Ortega- Featherweight Rematch
James: The UFC Mexico City co-main event is a five-round fight between Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega. The bout serves as a rematch of their 2022 bout. That contest ended unceremoniously as Ortega suffered a shoulder injury in the first round. At UFC Mexico City, they are running it back with title implications on the line.
In a unique way, Rodriguez and Ortega have massively different styles but fit into a similar archetype. Both of these athletes are fighters with a mix of elite skills and serious flaws. On the Rodriguez side, he has utilized his elite kicks and speed to climb the rankings. On the other hand, Ortega has outstanding submission skills and can finish fights in an instant.
Rodriguez has been adding to his UFC skills in recent contests. The most notable areas of growth are his boxing and submission skills. Rodriguez has made boxing improvements that have helped round out his striking. That can be seen in his ability to land straight shots from range, exchange in the pocket, and mix punches into combinations. On the ground, he has utilized his long limbs to improve his submission threat. That has helped him find submissions; however, he still has flaws in his takedown defense which makes him overreliant on threatening submission from the bottom position.
Ortega is a BJJ ace with sensational submission skills. The highlights of that skill set are his guillotine and triangle choke. In the remainder of his game, he has worked to improve his boxing and wrestling. Recently, we have seen highs and lows in that progression. In striking situations, he has a stiff jab with solid uppercuts and hooks. It is not an overly technical offense, but he lands impactful strikes. The problem is that he is defensive progression has been much slower which has led to him absorbing alarming amounts of damage against elite strikers. As far as takedowns go, he has shown improvements in the quality of takedowns while adding various types of takedowns to his game.
The UFC Mexico City co-main event is difficult to preview for several reasons. First, these are two unique fighters which makes it a challenge to predict how their styles clash. Secondly, Ortega has not fought since injuring his shoulder in 2022. In the past, he has made significant improvements during downtime, but he was not facing an injury and was in his late 20s rather than early 30s. This bout carries a few questions.
Ultimately, I lean towards Ortega. The main reason is because I am not fully bought in on Rodriguez’s takedown defense. Furthermore, Ortega is good at catching or countering kicks. That will increase the chances he has to land takedowns. That said, Rodriguez should be able to use his quickness to touch Ortega while this fight is standing. I think this is a close bout, but I see Ortega finding grappling success at some point. I will take Ortega by third-round submission.
Garrett: Ortega via decision
Jerry: Rodriguez via KO/TKO
Anthony: Rodriguez via decision
No. 1 Brandon Moreno vs. No. 3 Brandon Royval- Flyweight Rematch
James: The UFC Mexico City main event features a flyweight rematch between Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval. The pair first fought in 2020 where Moreno was awarded a victory after Royval suffered a shoulder injury. In the time since Moreno has fought in six title fights and compiled a record of 3-2-1. Moreno finds himself hunting for another title fight after losing the belt to Alexandre Pantoja in his most recent outing. Royval finds himself in a similar position. The key difference is that he did not win the title; however, he is also coming off a loss to Pantoja and is working to get another shot at gold.
Moreno is a well-rounded fighter that gets the job done wherever the fight goes. In striking exchanges, he has fast hands and solid boxing technique. In addition to his hands, he adds kicks to his games. On the ground, he is an underrated wrestler with sweeps and submissions. All of those skills are paired with his cardio and willingness to scrap.
Royval seems to be in the midst of a style makeover. In the past, Royval fought at an insane pace while throwing the kitchen sink at his opponent. That has worked for a long time. Royval is capable of throwing just about any strike in MMA and is willing to use them. Royval will create a chaotic fight where he uses his toolbox of dangerous weapons to thrive. Similarly, in grappling exchanges, he does not defend takedowns well but constantly moves and hunts for scrambles. In recent fights, Royval has worked to implement more control and technicality into his style; however, that resulted in a loss against Pantoja. At UFC Mexico City, it will be interesting to see if Royval makes further improvements or embraces his chaotic past.
Moreno is a tough matchup for Royval. The main reason for that is because he can attempt takedowns and has the submission defense to stay safe when Royval gets aggressive. Furthermore, Moreno has solid striking defense and has never been knocked out. That limits the upside of Royval catching Moreno in a wild striking exchange. I will take Moreno by decision.
Garrett: Moreno via decision
Jerry: Moreno via decision
Anthony: Moreno via KO/TKO
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