UFC Mexico City Best Bets
UFC Mexico City is a solid UFC fight night card that features several great fights. From a betting perspective, it has quite a few closely lined fights and several live underdogs. That creates a great betting slate for the event.
*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 1:00 p.m. on Friday, Feb. 23.*
Brian Ortega +124
The UFC Mexico City co-main event features an underdog that is a solid bet. Currently, Brian Ortega is a +124 underdog against Yair Rodiguez who sits as a -148 favorite.
I understand the concern with Ortega. In his last four fights, he is 1-3. At the same time, the context of his record matters. Ortega’s losses have come against Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Rodriguez- his upcoming opponent. The Rodriguez loss was injury and it is hard to hold that against him. As for Volkanovski and Holloway, Rodriguez lost to them as well. Plus, his win was a dominant decision against Chann Sung Jung. Yes, Ortega needs to fight more regularly, but he is only 33 and has plenty of fight left in the tank.
As far as skills go, Ortega should have a grappling edge. Rodriguez has solid submission off his back, but he can be taken down and his opponents have found success working from the top position. Additionally, Rodriguez’s kick-heavy attack will create more opportunities for Ortega to land a takedown. With that established, if Ortega consistently lands takedowns, he has submission and decision upside.
This could be a struggle for Ortega while the fight is standing. In their first matchup, Rodriguez was landing punches. What’s interesting is that Ortega has looked better in several other matchups. I would not be shocked to see a closer striking matchup this time around. Rodriguez would still hold an edge, but not as severe as many believe.
It should also be noted that Ortega was a favorite the first time this fight was booked. I understand some line movement, but I am not bullish on the idea that either fighter is significantly more or less skilled compared to where they were two years ago.
At the end of the day, I will always be interested in chasing an underdog when I think they have a grappling edge against a fighter with questionable takedown defense. That makes Ortega one of my favorite bets on UFC Mexico City.
Chris Duncan +160
The second bet that I like for UFC Mexico City is Chris Duncan to beat Manuel Torres. Duncan currently sits as a +160 underdog while Torres is a -192 favorite.
I am not entirely sold on Torres. In two UFC wins, he has fought a low level of competition. That allowed him to land two first-round knockouts. I am concerned with how Torres will look if he does not finish a fight in the first round. I am interested to see how he would look in a fight that goes into round two.
Duncan is not a perfect fighter, but I think he can give Torres a fight. On the feet, Torres is massive and hits hard. If he lands, he can hurt Duncan. However, Duncan should understand that he needs to stay safe in the early exchanges. Plus, Duncan could mix in grappling to survive the first round. In a worst-case scenario, he also hits hard and could land his own knockout.
I think Duncan has a chance to extend this fight and test Torres’ cardio. At +160, I am willing to run the risk that Torres will slow down when this fight gets deeper. That makes it a solid bet for UFC Mexico City.
Luis Rodriguez -118
The final bet that I like for UFC Mexico City is for Luis Rodriguez to beat Denys Bondar. Rodriguez is a slight favorite at -118 while Bondar sits at -102.
This is more of a Bondar fade than a bet on Rodriguez. Bondar is 0-2 in the UFC and has a regional record that is padded with awful opponents. That is a fighter that I want to bet against. In most cases, unproven fighters that struggle in the UFC continue to struggle. I expect that to be the case here.
As for Rodriguez, he is a 24-year-old making his UFC debut. I do not think he is the next big flyweight prospect, but I like his chances against Bondar. Rodriguez is physical, swings hard, attacks the body, and has shown competent grappling. That should be enough to take out Bondar.
This bout also has a couple of signs that point toward Rodriguez. First, Bondar has been significantly damaged in his two UFC outings. In his debut, he broke his arm in a grappling sequence. In his return, he was slammed and knocked out before eating a handful of massive elbows while unconscious. The bout was ruled a technical decision because of a clash of heads during the slam, but that does not change the fact that he was unconscious in an octagon. That is just a lot of damage.
If you are interested in narratives, that also favors Rodriguez. This is a fight between a debuting Mexican fighter against a Ukranian with a 0-2 promotional record. Oh, and the fight is taking place in Mexico. This bout was not booked to make sure the UFC had someone from Eastern Europe fighting in Middle America. That is just another small detail that adds to fighting abilities and trends.
Overall, there are quite a few reasons to bet on Rodriguez in this UFC Mexico City matchup. The -118 price tag is a fair number as well.
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