UFC 279 Best Bets
UFC 279 Best Bets is here! In UFC Paris Best Bets, I was able to find some winning bets and I look to do the same for UFC 279. This event will be a little more difficult to attack from a betting angle. The card features some inflated favorites and quite a few fighters that are tough to read due to age or fight-to-fight variability. That does not make for a good betting slate. Nonetheless, there are winners to be found. Here are three of the best bets for UFC 279. Plus, I threw in a fun long shot to spice things up a little.
*All lines are taken from FanDuel and are accurate as of 10 a.m. on Friday, Sept 9. *
Jailton Almeida By Submission +105
Jailton Almeida is a massive favorite in his fight with Anton Turkalj at UFC 279. This is understandable as he currently has an MMA record of 16-2 which includes a 2-0 UFC record. Almeida finished both of those UFC fights in the first round. His opponent, Turkalj, is 8-0, but he is making his UFC debut. Almeida currently sits as a -850 favorite. Realistically, when betting on this fight, you have to take a prop bet. Getting Almeida at plus money to win by submission is great execution of that. He will have a massive grappling advantage that he will likely look to utilize. With ten of his 16 career wins coming by submission, it is clearly his preferred way to finish a fight. This will only go awry if Almeida decides to hunt a knockout.
Johnny Walker +152
By absolutely no means, do I think Johnny Walker is a tremendous fighter. However, his opponent, Ion Cutelaba, is nothing to write home about either. Walker’s biggest flaw is that is not very durable. However, he will be much bigger than Cutelaba in this fight. That means he can use his length to stay on the outside and kick Cutelaba. This should help him avoid being hit clean. If he can employ that strategy he will have a good chance in this fight. From there, he has to defend against Cutelaba’s wrestling (if he uses it). This is not a home run of a bet, but at +152 I like the value on the side of Walker.
Hakeem Dawodu By Decision +145
Hakeem Dawodu will fight Julian Erosa on the UFC 279 prelims. This bout is a tale of two halves. On one side, Dawodu has gone to a decision in six of his eight UFC bouts. Meanwhile, Erosa has seen six of his eight fights end in a finish. As you can tell, I like Dawadou by decision. My reasoning for that is because Dawadou should be able to fight off Erosa’s submission attempts and outstrike him on the feet. At the same time, Dawadou is not a prolific finisher so he should not finish Erosa. Essentially, I think Dawadou is the better fighter. Plus, he is a bad stylistic matchup for Rosa. Since Dawadou wins most of his fights by decision, I will gladly take Dawadou by decision at plus money.
Sprinkle of the Week: Nate Diaz +700
If you are looking for a big line to sprinkle some change on, look no further. Obviously, Nate Diaz is the underdog for a reason at UFC 279. It does not seem likely that he beats Khamzat Chimaev. That does not make it impossible. It is plausible that Diaz finds a submission on the ground. Especially, if the fight reaches the later rounds. This is the sprinkle of the week for a reason though. Do not go and put a large amount down on Diaz. A quarter unit or less is reasonable for this one. If Diaz is able to get another historic upset, you will want a bet slip with his name on it.
