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UFC 279 Preview and Predictions

UFC 279

Chris Unger/Getty Images

UFC 279
Chris Unger/Getty Images

UFC 279 Preview and Predictions

The festivities for UFC 279 got started early, as during the presser Thursday night there was a wild skirmish, resulting in the press conference being canceled. There was hype aplenty around this card, as you have the last fight on Nate Diaz’s contract, Kevin Holland returning to the octagon, and Tony Ferguson looking to get back to his winning ways. As always, I am joined by VSM’s best and brightest: James Herrick and Chris Chick for our UFC 279 preview and predictions. Here is a quick recap of our records so far.

  • Garrett Burroughs: 30-18
  • James Herrick: 26-22
  • Chris Chick: 5-6

No. 13 Johnny Walker vs. Ion Cutelaba (Light Heavyweight)

Garrett: Our UFC 279 preview starts off with guys honestly looking to avoid the chopping block with the UFC. Both Johnny Walker and Ion Cutelaba are on really rough stretches right now, and one more loss for either guy could spell the end of their time with the organization. I have major concerns with Walker and his durability. I mean, the dude messed up his shoulder doing the worm after winning a fight. Durability aside, Walker does possess a great reach advantage in this fight. He should be able to use his length to keep Cutelaba at range, which will be vital because Cutelaba can swing. If this fight somehow manages to go the distance, which would be a miracle considering their gas tanks, I think it leans Walker due to damage done early. I’ll take Walker via TKO.

James: Johnny Walker and Ion Cutelaba are both amid career low stretches. Walker is coming off to knockout loss to Jamahal Hill that pushed him to 1-4 in his last five. On the other hand, Cutelaba is coming off a submission loss to Ryan Spann, making him 2-4-1 in his last seven. In fairness to each fighter, they have both fought elite members of the light heavyweight division. Regardless, this fight will have a massive impact on each fighter’s career. By no means will the winner receive a push in the division rankings, but the loser will be at risk of being cut from the promotion.

I really cannot tell you how this fight will go. Walker is known for his durability issues and Cutelaba could easily hunt his chin for three rounds. If he can find it, he has the power to get a finish. He is not a bad offensive wrestler, but I question if he will even attempt to take this fight to the ground. At 6-foot-6 Walker will be the much longer fighter. He can use that length to stay on the outside and land kicks. As far as cardio goes, both fighter struggles in that department. I do not expect either fighter to find an edge there. Ultimately, I think Cutelaba will struggle to get inside and land strikes. I will take Walker by decision.

Chris: Johnny Walker being No. 13 in the light heavyweight division despite having lost four out of his last five fights might prove it to be an underwhelming division, but no matter, he is ranked. With a long reach and a height advantage over Ion Cutelaba, I find Johnny Walker uses it to the fullest and gets it done. I’ll take Walker by second round KO.

No. 4 Irene Aldana vs. Macy Chiasson (Women’s Bantamweight)

Garrett: My immediate reaction when writing this UFC 279 preview for this pick was Aldana and just move on. But the more research I did, I am hesitant. I love a fighter who does great work with their clinch, I think it sets up so many things offensively. Aldana has a CLEAR advantage with her boxing and can keep almost anyone at bay, but if Chiasson can find a way to make this fight dirty and tie her up, things could go south for Aldana. On Saturday, though, I just don’t see the cards falling in Chiasson’s favor. Aldana has dynamite in her hands, and if she gets the combos going this could be a quick night. Chiasson is tough, so I will go Aldana by decision. Probably my toughest pick on this UFC 279 preview.

James: Irene Aldana and Macy Chiasson will be jockeying for position in the women’s bantamweight division as they each sit inside the top 10. This fight will be Aldana’s return to the UFC octagon after she earned an impressive win against Yana Kunitskaya in July of last year. She also finished Ketlen Vieira in 2019. In total, Aldana has tallied a 6-4 UFC record, while Chiasson is 5-2 in the UFC, but she does not have a win against a fighter of Aldana’s status.

This is an interesting clash of styles. Aldana is known for her boxing while Chiasson excels in the clinch. This fight will come down to several factors. Chiasson will need to get inside while avoiding Aldana’s punches. Meanwhile, Aldana needs to minimize damage when Chiasson is able to get inside. In that type of fight, I lean Aldana. She is one of the more powerful strikers in the women’s bantamweight division. If she can make Chiasson pay as she enters the clinch, she can do a lot of damage over three rounds. I will take Aldana by decision.

Chris: After dominating Kunitskaya in her previous fight, Irene Aldana looks to keep looking good on her feet. She places her strikes with a lot of precision, and I believe that is what helps win her fights. I’ll take Aldana by decision.

Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez (Catchweight)

Garrett: This is my pick for fight of the night, right here. Guaranteed fireworks. Two guys who love to push forward and willingly trade bombs. Kevin Holland has impressed in the UFC. We all remember his 5-0 record in 2020. Back-to-back losses to Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori slowed his momentum some, but since making the move to 170, he is 2-0, with a submission finish against Tim Means and a TKO finish against Alex Oliveira. Maybe some of that momentum is back with “Trailblazer”.

But Daniel Rodriguez has some momentum of his own. Winner of his last three, most notably his last win over Kevin Lee, put the 35-year-old on the map. Rodriguez has a fantastic jab that he will look to lean heavily on, especially to set up combos. Don’t expect any takedowns in this one. If you see a fighter on the mat, it’s due to a knockdown. My gut is telling me Rodriguez, just because I don’t know how I feel about Holland just yet. I will take the +170 underdog in Rodriguez and will eat my crow if I doubted Holland. Give me Rodriguez via second-round TKO.

James: If I was asked to pick, Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez would be my pick for fight of the night. This fight should be entertaining for as long as it lasts. Since moving down to welterweight, Holland has impressed. In his two fights since returning to the division, he has gone 2-0 with two finishes. Rodriguez has been gaining notoriety in the MMA community as of late. He is currently on a three-fight win streak that includes victories over well-known fighters such as Mike Perry and Kevin Lee. Despite only becoming a well-known name recently, Rodriguez has been a great fighter for a while as he currently touts an MMA record of 26-2.

The large majority of this fight will be contested on the feet. Holland and Rodriguez are both tremendous boxers. The big difference between their striking is that Holland is much longer. He has an 81-inch reach in comparison to Rodriguez’s 74. That should help Holland as it will lessen the effectiveness of Rodriguez’s jab. I also believe that Holland is more accurate and can box from a wider range of angles. Plus, if an opportunity arises, Holland can land slick submission. I will take Holland by second-round knockout.

Chris: Man, it feels like it’s been forever since I’ve seen this guy, but now, we can see the hype and the commotion about Kevin Holland. Daniel Rodriguez, coming off his last victory against Kevin Lee, will be looking to continue his winning streak. But I don’t think it happens against Holland. No brainer on this UFC 279 preview. Holland by first-round KO.

No. 14 Li Jingliang vs. No. 11 Tony Ferguson (Welterweight)

Garrett: Do I have to? I just don’t want to. THIS is our co-main!?

Fine. Tony Ferguson is washed — I will say it. Dude is just goofy at this point. I want to be subjective and try to show a little professionalism here with our UFC 279 preview and predictions, but does anyone really expect Ferguson to win here? The Ferguson of old is gone. Gone is the guy fans clamored to see fight Khabib Nurmagomedov. Never to return again. I would just hate to see him get knocked out stone cold again. Jingliang via decision.

James: Tony Ferguson will be the first legend to step foot in the UFC octagon at UFC 279. Across the octagon from him will welterweight be Li Jingliang. That’s right. If you are not privy to the news, Ferguson is making the move from lightweight to welterweight. Ferguson has not competed at welterweight since he was on The Ultimate Fighter Season 13 in 2011. This comes after a rough stretch of fights where Ferguson has been consistently outmatched. Ferguson has been convincingly beaten in each of his last four fights. Aside from one round against Michael Chandler, Ferguson has not looked remotely competitive. In contrast, Jingliang has looked good recently. He looked great in his last fight against Muslim Salikhov where he earned a knockout in the second round. He put Santiago Ponzinibbio out cold in 2021 as well. It has not all been perfect for Jingliang. He struggled against ranked competition as he dropped fights to Khamzat Chimaev and Neil Magny. That put him at 2-2 in his last four.

The prediction for this fight hangs on the answer to one question. What version of Tony Ferguson shows up? If we get prime Ferguson, he beats Jingliang rather easily. We have seen that version of Ferguson for about five minutes since 2020. I would love to see Ferguson show up in prime fashion — it is just ignorant to expect that. I will take Jingliang by second-round knockout.

Chris: After a heart-shattering loss that saw Tony Ferguson get knocked out by a brutal front kick against Michael Chandler, Ferguson looks to put an end to his current losing streak. Jingliang looks to make easy work of Ferguson, but we know it’s going to be a dog fight. I got Jingliang by third round TKO.

No. 3 Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz (Welterweight)

Garrett: The UFC 279 main event sees the culmination of a legendary career for Stockton’s own, Nate Diaz. Diaz has been at the forefront of some of the biggest moments in UFC history and is a sure-fire Hall of Famer one day. But let’s not count Diaz out here, either. He does hold one of the biggest upsets in MMA history when he submitted Conor McGregor. Diaz has great boxing, and his ground game has always been underrated throughout his career. His cardio will be a clear advantage as well. The key to victory here for Diaz is to get through the initial onslaught that is coming in the form of Khamzat Chmaev.

Chimaev is a MASSIVE favorite (-1150) and rightfully so. He is a mauler. His wrestling is otherworldly and the pressure he brings is sure to get to the best of them, potentially even Diaz. While he may not have the striking skills Diaz has, Chimaev has power in his hands, something Diaz lacks. I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a takedown attempt in the first 15 seconds of the fight. If the takedowns come early and often, it’s only a matter of time before this one is over. One wildcard to consider here is the scar tissue over the eyes of Diaz. He has had a fight stopped before because of it, and it always opens up. It isn’t a Nate Diaz fight without a little blood.

Man, the thought of Diaz upsetting Chimaev and giving Dana White the middle finger inside the octagon as he walks out would be historic. One last F-you to the boss who practically set him up for failure here. Imagine the scenes inside the arena. However, I can’t do it. Chimaev is a future world champion, and his road to UFC gold does not stop with a loss to Diaz. I will take Chimaev via fifth round TKO.

James: Nate Diaz is making his last walk to the UFC octagon at UFC 279. The Stockton, California, native has made himself a star while giving fans some of the most memorable moments in the sport’s history. At UFC 279, the UFC did him no favors. Diaz’s last UFC fight will not come against another aging legend like Tony Ferguson or another star such as Conor McGregor or even Dustin Poirier. Instead, he will share the cage with Khamzat Chimaev, the next generation of UFC talent. Essentially, the UFC is attempting to grow the name of Chimaev off the back of Diaz.

Chimaev is the clear favorite here. It makes sense, too. Chimaev is a relentless wrestler who should not struggle to take Diaz down. From there, he can land ground-and-pound or chase a submission. On the feet, he will be much more powerful than Diaz too. Diaz does have some advantages in this fight. He will have far better cardio and he is a much better boxer. The issue is that he does not have much power. It will be tough for Diaz to get his boxing going as Chimaev will not need to respect his power. Diaz’s best chance here is to survive the early onslaught, wait for Chimaev to tire, and land a submission. For a prediction, I think Chimaev will land a relentless amount of ground-and-pound which will open Diaz’s scar tissue. Diaz will be bloody and bruised, but before we can see the finish, the doctor will step in a stop the fight. I will take Chimaev by round-three TKO.

Chris: Now the main event. The hype behind this is unreal, with the backstage madness happening mid-press conference, to them canceling face-offs for “everyone’s safety” is insane. I can’t wait to see it. I know Nate is going to want to scrap until his body refuses to go more, and that’s the only thing that makes me not want to bet against him. How good is Khamzat going into five rounds? He can beat a very good fighter in three, but will the two extra rounds affect him drastically? I think if he trains properly, he’ll be fine, who knows, after Diaz admits to giving up training, Khamzat may wipe the floor with Nate. Khamzat via fourth round TKO.

These were our UFC 279 preview and predictions! Let us know how we did in the comments below! We will see you next time.

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