How Long Can Dricus Du Plessis Rule The UFC Middleweight Division?
At UFC 297, Dricus Du Plessis won the UFC middleweight championship with a decision win over Sean Strickland. Will Du Plessis rule the division for years to come or will he be a flash-in-the-pan champion? Let’s discuss.
The immediate threats:
The immediate threats to Du Plessis’ throne are fairly clear. The most likely upcoming contenders are Israel Adesanya and Khamzat Chimaev.
It seems like Adesanya will be given a crack at the belt relatively soon. The rivalry between Adesanya and Du Plessis will create a wild build-up; Adesanya has openly discussed wanting to headline UFC 300. The stars seemed aligned on this matchup.
From a stylistic standpoint, Du Plessis could have an edge on Adesanya. In theory, his physicality, power and wrestling could provide Adesanya with issues. For Adesanya to win, he will need to have a sensational performance demonstrating sensational range management and pinpoint counterpunching.
Chimaev is a tough fighter to call at this point in his career. In the first round, he can finish anybody on the planet, but what happens if he doesn’t? The cardio is a pretty serious concern. As for this matchup, Chimaev gasses, Du Plessis would be able to throw massive shots at a stationary target.
The future of the division:
Outside of Adesanya and Chimaev, it is massively difficult to determine which fighters will get a chance to fight for the belt. That is partially because the division is about to be hit with a large amount of turnover. In the coming year, fighters like Roman Dolidze, Nassourdine Imavov, Joe Pyfer, Ikram Akiskerov, Roman Kopylov, Brendan Allen, Caio Borralho and others will get a chance to climb into title contention.
Ultimately, some of those fighters will rise while others fall. Plus, veterans like Robert Whittaker, Jared Cannonier, Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa will have a chance to inch closer to the belt.
As I said, it is impossible to know who will rise to the top of the division and it’s impossible to predict. Obviously, some fighters are better than others, but specific matchups are what is important, but we can never predict injuries.
The verdict:
I could see Du Plessis breaking off a couple of title wins in his time as a champion. The stylistic matchups against Adesanya and Chimaev are winnable fights–even if Du Plessis is the less talented fighter. Conversely, a fighter like Cannonier would be a terrible matchup for Du Plessis–assuming his age does not finally catch up with him.
At the end of the day, Du Plessis’ size, physicality and uniqueness all make him a tough fighter to beat. That will hold even if he should theoretically lose a fight. The upset over Whittaker is a great example of that. That creates a volatile title reign that could end quickly or last longer than it should. Still, I think the most likely range of outcomes is a title reign that sits between zero and two defenses.
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