Too Early 2023 College Football Hot Takes: Big Ten
College football is so criminally under covered. Heading into the 2023 College Football season, I hope to change that. Yes, you will still get my NFL Draft notes, but I hope to do more pure college content this year. We’re going to open things up with hot takes for each conference and our first stop is the Big 10. Get ready for some spice.
Penn State Wins Conference +600
I’m not a total believer in this for the record. If I had to bet it tomorrow I’d probably take Michigan. They won the conference last year and basically return their whole team. At +185, that’s not even bad value. Except that’s exactly what they want you to think.
Ohio State recruits at another level and could easily bounce back to be that team. The quarterback spot is also really unproven and I’m not sure they have a guy in-house to replicate what CJ Stroud gave them. They also lost both tackles to the NFL and their quarterback didn’t get sneezed on last year. Will that hold up again?
However, +600 is sexy value and I think I know what I’m getting at quarterback with Penn State. I’m not 100% sure about Drew Allar’s NFL potential but I am a believer. I very much think he’s an NFL quarterback and will be miles better than what they got with Sean Clifford a year ago. Nick Singleton averaged 6.8 yards per carry as a true freshman and is probably the best talent at the running back position in the country.
The loss of Joey Porter and Ji’Ayir Brown hurt. No question about it. Kalen King is also a second round corner this year and wait until you see year two of Abdul Carter. That dude is built different. I don’t really worry about the defense. More so the offensive line. Then again, Olu Fashanu is probably a top ten pick next year. I’m just not sure how good the line is beyond him.
Picking Penn State to win the conference in 2024 is the better play. By then it’s too late from a gambling perspective. Take the shot now and live dangerously.
Northwestern Under 3.5 Wins
Maybe it’s not a hot take to say a team that sucks will continue to suck. I want you to also consider this. The line is 3.5 after they won a single game last year. That game being the Scott Frost Nebraska team in Ireland. Northwestern ranks last in the conference in returning production too and lost Peter Skoronski, Adetomiwa Adebawore, and Evan Hull to the NFL.
Their only winnable game on the schedule is Howard. They’re not beating Duke out of conference. They *might* beat Utep. Everyone else is a superior Big 10 opponent. Who are they beating in the Big 10 twice? Nobody. Under. Have to do it.
Rutgers Over 3.5 Wins
I can’t believe they have the same line as Northwestern. I’ll gladly take the over here. Remember that returning production thing? Rutgers is second in the conference and we’re now heading into year four of the Greg Schiano era. No, they won’t be dominant in conference play but who cares. They would have covered this line in 2021 and 2022. Why can’t they do it again?
We have to find four wins here. Northwestern is their week one opponent but they get them at home which helps. They beat Wagner 66-7 last year and should do something similar this year. They also beat Temple a year ago and will need to do so this year. Virginia Tech is another winnable game just saying… The Hokies won three games last year. Michigan State and Indiana are also struggling right now. I think we could get to five wins here.
Nicholas Singleton To Win The Heisman +6500
This is the best running back Penn State has ever had. I genuinely believe that. He’s better than Saquon Barkley. I think he’s better than Bijan Robinson too. 6-foot, 220, with track speed. Rushed for over 1,000 yards at a 6.8 YPC carry clip. Slept walked his way to 12 touchdowns as a true freshman. Can catch too averaging 7.7 through the air.
Singleton looks like faster Nick Chubb while being slightly less powerful. This guy won Big 10 Freshman of the Year for a reason. We also know the narrative matters. If Penn State gets into the playoff, it may be powerful enough to win the award right there.
Running backs have won this award plenty in the past. Derrick Henry last did so in 2015. If another running back is going to win the award, it’s this one.
This is the last year of Kirk Ferentz
The rest of the conference is modernizing while Iowa football remains the most unwatchable product in the conference. I don’t think this team can afford to underperform again. Wisconsin and Nebraska made splashy big money hires. I think Iowa will be pressured by the conference to do the same. Are they really going to make his son the fall guy? It’s time to start over and bring in a respectable name. Iowa can’t score and I just don’t see them putting up with it past this year.
Mason Graham is the best defensive player you don’t know
Just keep an eye on number 55 this year. All I know is that guy is good. Got some juice to him. Michigan is going to be really good again and I think this dude is the breakout guy.
Michigan State Under 5.5 Wins
This team won 5.5 games last year and I think they got worse. Payton Thorne left for Auburn. Keon Coleman left for Florida State. That means both receivers are gone cause Jayden Reed is off to the NFL. This team also couldn’t run the ball to save their lives last year ranking 104th in the country in that category. They had 56 more rushing yards last year than Colorado who won one singular football game. The last time this team could run the ball is when Kenneth Walker transferred in. I don’t see Kenneth Walker on this football team.
I don’t see how they beat a rising Washington team out of conference. Where are these 5 wins coming from? This team won three games a year ago and are trending in the wrong direction in a number of different ways. They haven’t brought in super strong recruiting classes either. I think they are more like a three-four win team again.
Jeff Sims becomes the quarterback draft people talk themselves into
I did list Jeff Sims on my quarterback list for next year. I’m not sure anybody else did. I can almost promise it’s going to happen. Nebraska will be better than they were a year ago and Sims has talent. He booted Casey Thompson from campus almost immediately. I’m not saying I’m the truth saying on Jeff Sims. I just have been doing this for awhile and can promise you he’s the quarterback this year where the narrative will become out of control. People won’t know what to do with the stuff he did at Georgia Tech and it will break their brains. Be ready for it.
I don’t think Nebraska is going to be dominant or anything. I just know that they will be more functional than Georgia Tech was even given Matt Rhule’s track record of being bad his first year on the job. Sims will do a couple things that surprise people and the narrative will become poison. Just remember I said it first.
Carnell Tate is the next great Ohio State receiver
I’ll just give you a peak behind the curtain here. Trey is grinning ear to ear writing this just knowing that I have Marvin Harrison Jr. on my fantasy team next year after I used my 2022 second round rookie pick on him. If we move past that we understand by this point that Ohio State is a wide receiver factory. Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, etc. They just keep coming but who is next? Remember the name Carnell Tate.
The wide receiver room is so loaded that Tate might not become a huge factor this year. By this time next year you will know the name Carnell Tate. Ohio State won’t miss a beat when it’s him and Jeremiah Smith are the starters. Tate is a five-star from IMG Academy. Looked pretty good in the Spring game too.
