Too Early 2023 NFL Hot Takes: Division Winners
Last year I told you that the Jacksonville Jaguars would win the AFC South. This year I’m just going to do an entire post on it. I’m sure we’ll do our Twitter space again but the written form of NFL Hot Takes is now here. We’re basically going to go over my favorite long term bets in order to win some $$$.
*No order.
1: Green Bay Packers NFC North +350
I would have felt better about this one if the Packers had a better draft. Now I’m a bit unsure of it. Still, +350 is outrageous and this division should be considered a totally wide-open race. Let’s just break each team down one by one.
Chicago: Hell no, we won’t go. This team still stinks and you’re not turning it around one year after having the first pick. Remember, Jacksonville did so after having the first pick twice. Both lines of scrimmage are totally brutal. It’s not happening.
Minnesota: I’m not betting anything in favor of Minnesota this year. This was a 13 win team last year while being 11-0 in one score games. Eric Kendricks, Patrick Peterson, Za’Darius Smith, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook are all gone. Don’t care that they’re older now. When you lose key vets like that it has an impact. It feels like the Vikings know they’re throwing this season away and are refusing to extend Kirk Cousins. I’m just not taking that team to win the division and that one-score game mark will likely go the other way this year.
Detroit: Am I really supposed to talk myself into Detroit? We’re positive they’re the team? Dan Campbell and all of his time management issues. That’s really what I’m supposed to bank on?
This is the Lions and you guys are WAY too optimistic about this team. What can go wrong will go wrong because it’s Detroit sports. The Lions as favorites with Jared Goof as the quarterback? Yeah, I’m just not doing it. I also think they’re worse at running back this year but that one can be debated. It was also an egregious draft class.
That leaves Green Bay just laying in the weeds. As long as David Bakhtiari is out there they usually find a way to be competitive. At +350 that’s a bet I’m just willing to take. The Packers also took care of Jordan Love. I listed him as a wildcard during the draft process but wildcards pan out more when you take care of them. This is a guy that sat and learned from Aaron Rodgers and was given proper time to develop. He’s going to be alright unlike what would have happened if he was thrown into the fire day one with the Jets.
This is the most trusted secondary in the division. Rashan Gary is the best pass rusher in the division. The Georgia guys Wyatt and Walker head into year two. Two good running backs and those weapons aren’t rookies anymore. I think we should be hopeful on Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. The tight end room is more loaded than ever.
Green Bay also plays a third place schedule and has that advantage of playing the Giants instead of the Eagles.
2: Carolina Panthers NFC South +340
Just remember that if it happens I was the first one on this.
Sorry not sorry but all of you are wrong. I’m ALWAYS a trade down guy. That being said Chicago got robbed. It’s obvious you guys don’t know the NFL Draft trade value chart. Ryan Poles has shown his cards. Total dope.
— Trey Daubert (@treydaubert) March 10, 2023
If CAR pick Stroud or Young they should be NFC South favs pic.twitter.com/oVI7FJXqzg
I think we can all rule out Tampa. They are facing Tom Brady cap hell with Tom Brady not playing anymore. Todd Bowles has proven he’s not head coach material and now a bum is playing quarterback. Let’s move on.
The Atlanta Falcons are terrible. Nobody with a brain should take them seriously. Anybody taking a team with Desmond Ridder as their quarterback to win the division belongs in an insane asylum. It’s not happening.
That basically leaves New Orleans and Carolina. All I know is Dennis Allen is 15-38 as a head coach and probably doesn’t have it.
Carolina almost won the division last year and Bryce Young is ready to play right now. The defense is also really underrated. Carolina also brings back their entire starting five along the offensive line. The DJ Moore loss is overstated. The trio of Terrace Marshall, Adam Thielen, and DJ Chark isn’t terrible. Jonathan Mingo might be a factor too and they also signed Miles Sanders.
If anything I think Carolina should be -150 and I think I’d still take them.
3: Miami Dolphins +290
I’m the least confident in this one but I absolutely think it can happen. The Patriots are a mess and are listed as +700 for a reason. The Jets aren’t winning this division even if Aaron Rodgers still has juice left. This overall roster just isn’t good enough and should be viewed as a downgrade from what Rodgers had with Green Bay.
The Bills are awesome but they also are facing some Stefon Diggs drama. I also think they really miss Brian Daboll. Buffalo also lost Tremaine Edmunds and aren’t the best along the offensive line either.
Miami can do it. It feels like only a matter of time before Dalvin Cook signs with the Dolphins. The Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combination is scary. Let’s also not forget that Miami added Jalen Ramsey. Their biggest addition was Vic Fangio as the defensive coordinator.
I think this team might end up being really good. +290 for Tua to stay healthy? I’ll take it. The Phins should be considered Super Bowl contenders. I truly believe that.
