Don’t Eat The Cheese: 2023 Fantasy Hockey Forward Busts
Let me start out by saying this. During the time that I’ve been ripping Sean Allen (and I’ve been in the right 98.7% of the time) his forward rankings this year aren’t terrible. This list will probably be the shortest list of the year I do. The bottom line is, it’s just really hard to screw up the forwards that score the most. It’s clockwork by just looking at point leaders so we’ll be quick with this one. Let’s get right to the Don’t Eat The Cheese list of 2023 fantasy hockey forward busts.
Connor Bedard (Chicago Blackhawks) F16, 25th overall
I talked about this in a prior post already. Everything that I said back in January came true. Bedard was going to be ranked WAY too high as a rookie and here we are.
25? That’s nuts, dude. Totally nuts. Connor McDavid is the best athlete in any sport and he posted 48 points as a rookie. Leon Draisaitl had nine and then 51 the following year. What’s the best case scenario for Bedard? 60 points? That’s not getting you anywhere close to 25th overall.
The Blackhawks also suck. That team is going to stink again. His best teammate is Taylor Hall. After that it’s maybe Taylor Raddysh? Even if Bedard is awesome right away, he’s not exactly in a spot to collect easy assists.
I don’t see any way Bedard finishes this high. Almost no chance. I think he’s at least 25 spots too high.
JT Miller (Vancouver Canucks) F24, 42nd overall
I’ll fade JT Miller again. It’s hard to ignore the dysfunction going on between the two parties here. Miller was fine last year in fantasy posting 82 in 81 games. The Vancouver PP should still deliver but five on five he’s expected to skate with Ilya Mikheyev and Brock Boeser. Elias Pettersson is the star of this team and is clearly the Canucks guy you want. Obviously, it’s ranked accordingly but I just can’t buy in on Miller. They want to get rid of him which only creates more uncertainty. I’d project him in the 70 range not this high and ahead of Nico Hischier, John Tavares, and Roope Hinitz who are all better real-life players.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Edmonton Oilers) F28, 48th overall
Let me first start by saying that this one could backfire. Simply being part of the Oilers gives any player value. When you get to play on the best powerplay unit in the history of the sport, you’re going to rack up points. I highly recommend taking players from this Edmonton team.
At the same token, I’m betting against a weird outlier year not repeating itself. The eye test tells me that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is one of the most overrated players in the league. That if he played for any other team in the league, he’d be thought totally differently.
RNH notched 104 points last year. His prior career high is 69. If you take last year out, RNH averages 48 points per year for the duration of his career. Tricky one but I’ll bet on the regression hitting here. If he played for any other team, this would be a slam dunk but I get the Oilers thing is baked into the ranking.
Pierre-Luc Dubois (Los Angeles Kings) F29, 50th overall
Dubois has never finished higher than 76th in points for fantasy. 50 is way too rich for my blood. The Kings have basically tried to replicate the success that the Golden Knights have by being strong down the middle. I just don’t see a gap between Dubois and William Karlsson/Chandler Stephenson. What’s the gap?
In an elevated role last year, Dubois posted 63 points. He now goes to LA where he plays on the second line and second PP unit. Stephenson had 65 points last year and plays on the top PP unit. Stephenson is ranked 186th. I promise you at the end of the year the fantasy gap between those two won’t be drastic.
Just a really rich ranking to be taking Dubois here when he’s not even the best center on his own team. Speaking of which, why is Anze Kopitar ranked 122nd? I get that Kopitar is aging but he’s still the top dog on this team until further notice and outproduced Dubois last year.
Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis Blues) F30, 51st overall
I actually really like Jordan Kyrou and think he could pop but he has one major issue holding him back. The guy is small and refuses to hit. Kyrou played in 79 games last year averaging 18 minutes of ice time per game. Kyrou registered 14 total hits. By the way, his prior career high is eight hits for an entire season.
That may seem like no big deal but those hit points add up. Kyrou is going to have to be a 95-point guy to make up for it. That’s a tall ask on an average Blues team. Just no way I can pass on a proven talent like Kyle Connor who is ranked five spots lower.
Carter Verhaeghe (Florida Panthers) F31, 53rd overall
Trey is a big fan of Verhaeghe. I legit think he might be the most underrated player in the league. 53 overall is still insane. He’s higher than previously mentioned Connor and Alex Ovechkin. He’s ranked ahead of so many guys who are franchise icons for other teams.
Just a really rich ranking. Guy can definitely score goals but 53? That’s really, really high, man.
Travis Konecny (Philadelphia Flyers) F32, 54th overall
You know my rule when it comes to fantasy. I don’t want guys on bad teams. 54 overall is way too early to take any player on the Flyers. Konecny was very good last year posting 61 points in 60 games but it’s still the Flyers and I’m skeptical he can repeat that kind of point success over a full year on this dreadful team.
The Flyers are tanking and it’s not a secret. I just can’t go this high on a player knowing that I’m banking on a trade to squeeze the proper value out of this selection.
Bo Horvat (New York Islanders) F34, 56th overall
This one is easy and I tried to tell you exactly what was going to happen last year. In fact, I was basically on the money last year. Horvat’s fantasy stock sank like the Titanic after the trade to New York. Why do we believe it’s going to be any different this year?
In 30 games with the Islanders last year, Horvat notched 16 points. Compare that to the 54 points in 49 games he posted with Vancouver prior to the deal. This Islanders team doesn’t create enough offense and Horvat has been tasked with being more defensively responsible with the Islanders since Mat Barzal can’t.
We already have our sample size. It’s a matter of if you’re smart enough to pay attention. Sean Allen clearly is not, which is why I’ve been humiliating him for years now. Hard pass at this price point.
Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota Wild) F41, 64th overall
This is a classic example of fantasy and real-life success being two different things. I really like the real life player of Joel Eriksson Ek-aa really good center teams would love to have on their team. Just not a guy that’s going to be a fantasy hero.
Eriksson Ek posted a career high 61 points last year which was good enough for 91st in the NHL in 2022. 91st is about where he should be ranked, not inside the top 65. Eriksson Ek is a classic two-way center. This is not a guy that’s ever been asked to be a point machine. For this ranking to make sense, he needs to outproduce his new career high in a significant way while locking down top-line center duties, which still hasn’t happened. I don’t think they want him to do that either…
Just not a sharp fantasy player to take Eriksson Ek this high.
Owen Tippett (Philadelphia Flyers) F50, 82nd overall
What an outlandish ranking. Again, I don’t want any part of the Flyers inside the top 100. I’ll fade that all day. Tippett has some promise but this high? Tippett posted 49 points last year while receiving mega ice time. In what world is that going up to a point where he becomes a league winner? I don’t see it.
Kevin Fiala is ranked one spot higher and Nick Suzuki is one spot lower. Still awesome players available in this portion of the draft. Taking Tippett here is comical.
Vladimir Tarasenko (Ottawa Senators) F57, 90th overall
I get the intrigue but counting on Tarasenko at this spot feels really risky. The injury past has been fully documented. Tarasenko wasn’t that great with the Rangers either posting 21 points in 31 games with New York. I think the days of Tarasenko being this point-scoring sniper are dwindling. He’s also heading into age 32 season and it’s not like injury-prone guys become more healthy overnight. Too many high-upside plays I’d rather go with than take the gamble that Tarasenko recaptures magic that probably isn’t there anymore.
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