Don’t Eat The Cheese: 2023 Fantasy Hockey Goalie Busts
It’s another year to beat the piss out of ESPN’s fantasy hockey expert, Sean Allen. After how last year went, it’s actually kind of incredible that ESPN didn’t contact me. Don’t worry, we plan on humiliating that guy every single year until ESPN does something about it. The Don’t Eat The Cheese series returns and today we’re looking at goalie busts for fantasy hockey.
Before I begin, I just hope that people start to understand that the sport is changing. Goalies are the running backs of the NFL. Coaching and the blue line in front of you trumps all. They shouldn’t be paid top dollar under any circumstance. Last year I tried to warn you of this and was proven right on basically all my predictions on goalies last year. I was eight for eight last year on the Cheese list. I hope to do so again this year.
This year, I plan on making things simple. I have a golden rule in fantasy hockey and I encourage you to follow it. Do not pick a goalie inside the top 100 selections or you will live to regret it. The zero RB approach in fantasy football is what should be applied to goalies in fantasy hockey. Heed the warning or suffer the consequences later.
Without further ado, let’s get to the list.
1: Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders) – G1, 10th overall
Ilya Sorokin ranked third last year in goalie fantasy points and had about as good of a year as you can possibly have. Sorokin finished second in the Vezina while posting a .924 SV% and +36 GSAA. Even that monster year wasn’t nearly good enough to earn Sorokin a top-10 spot in fantasy. Sorokin doesn’t just need to outproduce those numbers, he also needs to collect 40 wins on an Islanders team that’s totally lost.
It’s not happening. There is basically no chance Sorokin finishes as a top-10 play in fantasy. Especially on this team. Don’t be an idiot. I really like Sorokin and respect his talent but this ranking is brain dead. The guy was basically a god in the net last year and finished third among goalies. He not only needs to repeat that but also needs to have the Islanders be a top seed in the East. This ranking is a noob move. I guarantee I win this one.
2: Jake Oettinger (Dallas Stars) – G2, 15th overall
Trey is a big fan of Jake Oettinger. I’m sorry but I’m just not taking him 15th overall. That’s just totally insane. Allen has Oettinger ranked ahead of Tim Stützle and Cale Makar. There’s just no world where I pass on those two to take a goalie. It’s fantasy suicide. Oettinger will likely perform well but the cost to acquire him based on ranking is outrageous. Hard pass. Oettinger needs to play out of his mind to justify this cost. He could play out of his mind and it still not be worth it. Just way too high.
3: Alexandar Georgiev (Colorado Avalanche) – G3, 19th overall
You’re a year too late, buddy. Last year I had Georgiev as a big-time sleeper and he finished as the second-best goalie in fantasy. You’re welcome to anyone that listened to me on that.
I understand wanting a piece of the Avalanche but now it’s gone too far. 19th overall? That’s insane. Just not a world where I’m passing on a guy like Mitch Marner who Allen has ranked lower. Not when there are guaranteed points playing next to Auston Matthews. Only a dummy ranks it that way.
By the way, Georgiev was really good last year but let’s not act like there isn’t a nightmare scenario that exists. Pavel Francouz is never healthy but he’s really good when he is. Francouz could easily steal this job if he gets hot at the right time. Justus Annunen is also a young goalie in the system that Colorado is really high on. Didn’t play well in limited time as a rookie but could pop at any time. If either of those two things happens, selecting Georgiev this high is asking to lose. Even if neither of those things happens, it’s still way too high.
4: Igor Shesterkin (New York Rangers) – G4, 23rd overall
We already talked about this last year. You would think Allen would learn his lesson but here we are anyway…
Two years ago, Shesterkin was a god and Allen got burned when he overranked him. Last year Shesterkin was really good and Allen is setting himself to get burned again.
I’ll say this: I have no issues taking Shesterkin. It would just have to be 30 spots lower than this. Just not worth passing on the top-end forward talent.
5: Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets) G5, 28th overall
The same thing I just said about Shesterkin except this one should be amplified. I want you to think about this. Hellebuyck is ranked 28th and these are the three players that follow him on the list – Mika Zibanejad, Brayden Point and Jack Eichel. That’s with Sasha Barkov slightly after.
Hellebuyck had a great year last year but now he has to repeat that in a place he’s not happy in while playing for a Jets team that could tank at any moment. He’s a lame duck waiting to get moved. Who knows if the landing spot is favorable either? Too much uncertainty to pull the trigger inside the top 30. Especially while playing for the Jets. How many wins is he racking up there? It will be fewer than the 37 he had a year ago, which is what he will need, and then some to justify this price point.
6: Juuse Saros (Nashville Predators) G6, 33rd overall
I absolutely love Juuse Saros. I think there is a case that can be made that he is the best goalie in the league. What he’s done while playing for a painful mediocre Nashville side should earn him far more praise than he gets.
At the same time, this is fantasy. The West is pretty stacked and Nashville is finally done playing this get into the dance as the No. 8 seed thing. This Preds team might be really bad and that’s by design. Barry Trotz has started selling off pieces and the new head coach coming in is an offensive-minded guy replacing a defensive-minded guy. None of that spells good news for Saros’ fantasy stock.
You’re basically asking a guy to carry a tanking team and finish inside the top six for goalies. Not just that but be a top-33 play in fantasy while playing for a team that won’t rack wins. I don’t see how it’s possible and that’s coming from someone that loves Saros.
7: Linus Ullmark (Boston Bruins) G7, 38th overall
We just went over this more in-depth. Please click the link here. Do people understand that the Bruins are going to take a major step back this year? Are you paying attention? Do you watch hockey? Do you understand that No. 37 isn’t on the team anymore?
Ullmark had an outlier year that likely will never repeat itself. The Bruins won 65 games and Ullmark went 40-6-1 on the season. Allen is ranking it like that’s going to happen again. God, he’s so damn clueless! Not a chance that repeats itself. Virtually impossible he even gets close. Don’t be an idiot. There is also a non-zero chance that Jeremy Swayman outscores him. Ullmark was picked No. 220 overall in the site league last year. He should go about 120 this year.
8: Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning) G8, 52nd overall
I’m skeptical to bet against Vasilevskiy but I’ve won every single year without him on my team. This is also his lowest ranking since I’ve been doing fantasy hockey. I actually don’t hate this draft cost but I’ll bet against it anyway. The Lightning are on the downside of the dynasty. Still a very good team but the days of winning a cup are over. The blue line is also a mess and hasn’t been the same since they gave away Ryan McDonagh.
This one might be close but still a tad too high for me. If I’m going to take a Lightning player, why not Steven Stamkos who’s ranked a few spots lower?
9: Filip Gustavsson (Minnesota Wild) G9, 77th overall
Talk about a breakout campaign a year ago. Gustavsson went nuts last year posting a .931 SV% for Minnesota. He’s the guy there now but will still split a lot of time with Marc-Andre Fleury limiting the upside. I also don’t see the Wild as a big-time contender in the West. Wins will be there but not to the point where it’s blowing you away. This team is still in cap hell with the Suter and Parise dead money deals and they feel it on a nightly basis.
Can I see Gustavsson do this one more year? I have a hard time believing he’s THIS good. If Gustavsson takes even a small step back, this ranking is too high. There are still too many good players on the board to be taking gambles like this.
10: Ilya Samsonov (Toronto Maple Leafs) G10, 79th overall
Amazing what one year can do for a goalie. When are you guys going to believe me that these guys should be treated as baseball relief pitchers? They get hot and then they go cold. Ride the stock market. Samsonov is no different.
A year ago nobody wanted him. He basically signed for the minimum in Toronto and was free in drafts. This is a classic sell-high situation. Samsonov posted a .919 SV% last year. His career mark in Washington is .902%.
Have you seen the Leafs’ blue line? The Leafs are going to be very good next year, but they are basically the Big 12 football version of hockey. They employ two of the worst defenders in the league in the form of Morgan Reilly and John Klingberg.
Last time I checked, TJ Brodie still stinks and Mark Giordano is another year older. It’s going to be a tall task for a guy that nobody wanted to repeat a magical year when the offseason saw the team add the single worst defender in the league. That part will never make sense to Sean Allen because he has rocks for brains. Give me Joe Woll at 10 cents on the dollar.
11: Jeremy Swayman (Boston Bruins) G11, 98th overall
I really like Jeremy Swayman but the same things working against Ullmark apply here. I’m sorry but there is just no chance this Bruins team breaks the single-season win total again. That’s what it’s going to take for Swayman to be G11.
Just an insane ranking. Not only are the Bruins going to be worse but you’re also signing up for the 1B and paying a premium for it. How many starts is Swayman going to get? If I’m taking a goalie in the top 100, he better be getting the lion’s share of work. The Maine product had 37 starts last year. What’s the best-case scenario 42?
Swayman may be valuable when he plays but his total points won’t be there unless Ullmark gets hurt. To bank on that happening is just not a smart thing to do. That’s what it’s going to take for Swayman to finish inside the top 100. Swayman also went 24-6-4 last year and I just have a hard time believing he’s going to win virtually every time he takes the ice again.
12: Tristan Jarry (Pittsburgh Penguins) G14, 114th overall
I actually don’t hate this ranking for Jarry but how can you trust him? I have been playing fantasy hockey for three straight years. He has finished the year on the shelf in all of those years. The guy never plays I don’t know what you want me to say. At least with Freddie Andersen, you feel good about Carolina winning when he takes the ice. This Pittsburgh team should be improved but they’re really old and didn’t make the playoffs last year. The Erik Karlsson trade doesn’t exactly help them in the defense department.
Unless I’m getting Jarry for free, I don’t want him.
13: Spencer Knight (Florida Panthers) G19, 209th overall
I get the intrigue but Knight should be free in drafts. Right now he’s not and is essentially being drafted as a G2 starter in fantasy. I just can’t understand why that’s the case.
Knight went into the player assistance program last year and we have no idea if he’s even going to be there this year. I’m guessing he will but how do we really know how that’s going to pan out? Does Sean Allen have some scoops into Knight’s personal life? Kinda creepy if so but I doubt it. The line of Knight starts next year is a pure guessing game.
What’s crazier is if you go to the Panthers website right now, he’s not even listed on the roster. On Daily Faceoff, Anthony Stolarz is listed as the backup behind Sergei Bobrovsky. It’s very possible Knight is stashed in the AHL to start the year. If that’s the case, why is he being drafted? Only in the idiotic brain of Sean Allen is this possible.
Does he watch the games? I don’t think he does. What’s the evidence that this guy watches the games? If he did, he would know that Knight made 21 starts last year and is being ranked as a G2 starter. Crazy town.
Also, the Panthers’ blue line is terrible. Florida was the 12th-worst team in goal prevention last year. It won’t be much different this year. Even when Knight starts, he’s going to have several games with negative points. Just a fact.
14: John Gibson (Anaheim Ducks) G29, Outside top 300
If you followed along with our journey last year, you know that Gibson had negative points last year. Until he’s traded, John Gibson shouldn’t be ranked in the top 60 goalies. Last year Gibson had 31 losses and the Ducks are going to suck again. It’s getting to the point where he also may refuse to even show up. It’s not a secret that he wants out.
Last year he had negative points. Why is he being ranked as one of the 29 best goalies? It’s just not possible.
15: Matt Murray (Toronto Maple Leafs) G38, Outside top 300
The odds that Matt Murray never plays for the Leafs again strongly outweigh the odds that he plays again. Toronto is over the cap right now and they need him to be on LTIR. They’re over the cap even with him on LTIR. He’s also made of complete glass. Shouldn’t even be on the list and he’s ranked ahead of Jordan Binnington who actually starts every game for St. Louis. Looney Tunes.
Subscribe to Vendetta’s Twitch
Check out the Vendetta Shop
Subscribe to Vendetta’s YouTube
Click here for more NHL content
