Can Saquon Barkley earn his new incentives?
Both the Giants and Saquon Barkley avoided a holdout with the two sides agreeing on a contract earlier Tuesday morning. It’s a one-year deal worth $10.1 million fully guaranteed with a $2 million signing bonus upfront. The deal gives him slightly more than he would get under the tag, especially if he can hit the incentives.
But how likely is it Barkley can actually earn these incentives? Are the Giants really doing this in good faith? Or is it a way to cover their ass in the eyes of the public and say they tried to work the best deal out? Let’s take a look and see.
Real quick let’s take a look at what exactly these incentives are.
Now I know you all would love to listen to me explain why I think this either will or will not happen. But for now, let’s instead focus on what the sportsbooks think is most likely.
According to the Barstool Sportsbook, Saquon Barkley is expected to rush for 1005.5 with his rushing touchdowns being set at 7.5, coming up a little short in both of these main categories.
Realistically, Barkley gets two of these done. The Giants’ offense could take a huge step and really allow Barkley to flourish. I don’t see that happening with Daniel Jones at quarterback, but hey, you never know.
What I really don’t see happening is the 65 receptions. He has only passed that number once, back during his rookie campaign, but hasn’t really been close since. Almost like this was the incentive they threw in there to make sure he doesn’t go 3/3.
With Daniel Jones behind center, any reception prop is a real shot in the dark. Barkley is no exception. Best case scenario he ends up completing two of the three. I still don’t think it gets him a long-term contract, but that’s a whole other issue I won’t get into.
There is another prop Barkley could hit should he want that incentive money. The only issue is that it’s virtually impossible to complete: Barkley would have to rush for over 1349.5 yards with the Giants also making the playoffs.
As great as Barkley is, I don’t see him hitting this number. Health has always been a concern for him and it’s very likely he misses extended periods of time this year. The Giants also likely don’t want to overwork him like they did last year. Especially after all the running backs they have signed in preparation for a Barkley holdout.
Overall, this still isn’t a great contrast for Saquon Barkley. Sure it’s technically better than a franchise tag, but you aren’t gaining that extra security you usually get from signing a contract. I don’t think Barkley will be healthy enough or make the improvements as a receiver to hit those numbers. But I’ve been wrong before and very well could be wrong again.
I’m glad I no longer have to hear these running backs complaining about their lack of money. I know it’s not ideal, but whining about it also doesn’t fix anything.
Barkley will be at training camp and avoid a major holdout, which is huge for this Giants team that runs the entire offense through him because if you go out there with just Daniel Jones, you may as well just forfeit the season and save everyone’s time.
The running back market is a mess right now and I don’t know what will fix it. The players want more money but executives are realizing how replaceable running backs are and how short their shelf life is. No reason to extend a running back to a long-term deal when you can draft one and pay him virtually nothing.
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