2023 NFC Divisional Round Preview: #7 Green Bay Packers at #1 San Francisco 49ers
It has seemingly become a yearly tradition come January. Either the San Francisco 49ers travel to the other’s city to face off in an always classic playoff game. It will be the fifth time since 2012 that the two meet, with San Francisco winning all five of those matchups. But it’s a new year, and as we’ve seen, anything can happen. So, will it continue their domination and make easy work of the Packers? Or will Green Bay continue its miracle seven-seed run and stun the world by beating the Niners? Let’s find out.
How the Packers can win:
Rattle Jordan Love early
Love has looked like a completely different QB to end the season. I don’t know what they were doing with Love during those Aaron Rodgers, years, but it worked. Part of what has allowed Love to look so good has been how comfortable Matt LaFleur and this offense have allowed him to be. He’s able to get into a rhythm early and establish connections with these receivers to the point where this Packers offense can become deadly.
But Love is still very inexperienced when it comes to playoff games; last week was his first career postseason start. So if this San Francisco defensive front can get after him early and rattle him, it can go a long way in deciding the outcome of this game. This defense just needs to get after Love early and make things as uncomfortable as they possibly can for him.
Don’t get cute on offense:
This may seem like a silly reason, but I believe it’s the most important one to follow if the 49ers want to secure a win. We have seen this offense fire on all cylinders pretty much all year. It’s a well-oiled machine with every part working as intended.
Entering this game against the Packers, nothing needs to change. Green Bay doesn’t boast a defense that is world-beating and really shouldn’t give the 49ers too much trouble. If they just stick to the usual game plan of feeding Christian McCaffrey and using that to open up the play-action, then I don’t see how the Niners lose this game. But if they get off schedule early and start trying to do too much, it could quickly spell trouble.
Star players doing star-like things:
The advantage of star power clearly goes to San Francisco here. Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Trent Williams, McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel … the list goes on. Not to say the Packers don’t have star players, but it’s not near to the extent that San Francisco does.
When you get to these big-time playoff games, you need the star players to separate themselves. That’s what you’re paying them all that money for, to make the big plays in the biggest moments. Something the 49ers have plenty of. Even if the team isn’t playing great, this high-end talent can bail them out and squeak a win out for them.
How the Packers can win:
Get Jordan Love in rhythm early
For San Francisco, I said it was key for them to rattle Love early. So it makes sense that the opposite is true for Green Bay, who should look to get Love going early. Over the final five games, he finished with a TD:INT ratio of 12:0.
Part of what made that possible was them focusing on getting Jordan Love into a rhythm early. They get the play action going and it creates a lot of easy throws for Love, where he’s able to create a connection with his receivers. If Love comes out slow and sluggish, it could be a long night for the Packers. But if he comes to the play, they just may have a chance.
Get Aaron Jones going:
One of the biggest X-Factors for Green Bay in their win against the Cowboys was the play of Aaron Jones, who finished the game with 118 rushing yards and three touchdowns en route to the Packers’ offensive explosion.
Early in the year, the Packers struggled with getting the run game going. They just gave up on it too early and often, and it was clear that Jones wasn’t being put to full use. But last week against the Cowboys, we saw that completely change. Jones was not only used heavily on the ground, but he was making his usual impact as a receiver as well and really helped open up the rest of this offense.
So if the Packers truly want a chance this weekend, they are going to have to try and make sure they can get Jones involved a heavy amount.
Try and expose the secondary
These 49ers are almost perfect from top to bottom. But of course, in today’s NFL, that can almost never be the case, which is true for this 49ers team. While they may not have a glaring weakness you can expose, an area they aren’t “elite” in would be the secondary. If you want to expose this vaunted defense, it’s going to have to come through the torching of their secondary.
Thankfully for Love, airing it out has been a recipe for success for them. Doubs has been a great downfield threat for Love, and with Christian Watson back, that should be yet another downfield threat for the Packers. As the underdog, the Packers will have to make a lot of big plays to win–something this receiving core has shown an ability to do, especially down the stretch of this season.
Prediction:
Like it usually is, I feel that this will be another close and entertaining game. These two teams don’t like each other and likely are tired of seeing one another. I expect offenses to be in full force on both sides, with the difference coming in whose defense can make the stops when needed, which is why I’m going with the 49ers in my prediction.
The Packers will have the offense to keep it close and stay with the Niners for most of the game. But at a certain point, the raw defensive talent will show for San Francisco, and it will be too much for this Packers offense to deal with. 34-21 49ers
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