2023 NFC Divisional Round Preview: #4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at #3 Detroit Lions
The 2023 NFL Playoffs roll on Sunday with a Divisional Round matchup between the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Lions are riding hot after winning a home playoff game to end the longest playoff win drought in the NFL.
After the Green Bay Packers upset the Dallas Cowboys, the Lions were rewarded another playoff game at Ford Field. Despite being the lower seed, the Buccaneers enter this game with momentum as well. In the Wildcard Round, a 23-point victory over the Eagles gives fans hope Tampa Bay’s playoff run can continue.
At the end of the day, only one team can advance to the NFC Championship Game. Let’s dive into how each team can walk away victorious. After, I’ll provide a prediction for the game.
How the Lions can win:
Stop the run:
The Detroit Lions have been quality at shutting down opponents’ rushing attacks. That is a trend that they will want to continue in this game. If the Lions can stop the run on early downs they will have a much easier time getting off the field on third downs. Putting Tampa Bay in third and long situations will allow the defensive line to aggressively rush the passer or scheme up blitz packages. At a minimum, it will force Baker Mayfield to hit tough throws in clutch situations.
If the Buccaneers can establish the run with Rachaad White it will be much easier to convert on third down and it will open play-action shots down the field. That is something Detroit will hope to avoid.
Scheme around Vita Vea:
The Detroit Lions rely heavily on its run game to find offensive success. That was evident in the team’s Wildcat matchup against the Rams. The Lions scored 21 first-half points in comparison to three second-half points. The biggest difference was Detroit’s efficient rush attack in the first quarter. In the second half, that unit stalled.
Tampa Bay’s run defense is center-around defensive tackle Vita Vea. If the Lions want to run the ball against the Buccaneers they will need to scheme around the run-stopping expert. That begins with running outside the tackles with Jahmyr Gibbs. That said, interior runs will be needed. That will require the Lions to double Vea or find a way to create unique running lanes that take him out of the play.
Contain Mike Evans and Chris Godwin:
The Detroit Lions’ secondary has greatly struggled against elite receiving cores. In their wildcard matchup, Detroit gave up 181 yards to Puka Nacua; though it held Cooper Kupp to 27 yards. Still, the Lions have consistently allowed an elite receiver to go off for big games, which will need to change against the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay certainly has the talent at receiver that could present the Lions with problems. Mike Evans has had yet another elite year. If the Lions sell out to stop Evans, Chris Godwin should see quality opportunities. Either way, the Lions need to create a balanced game plan to contain the Buccaneers. They do not need to completely shut the duo down. If they can contain the duo, they will be in a solid position.
If the Buccaneers can hit explosive plays and convert on third and long, the Lions will be forced to rely on the offense to win the game. While that is possible, it certainly cannot be relied upon.
How the Buccaneers can win:
Take the top off the defense:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have opportunities to hit big plays against the Detroit Lions secondary. The ability to connect on those opportunities will play a massive part in the Buccaneers’ ability to win.
In the Wildcard Round, the Buccaneers had some uncharacteristic drops that took points off the board. That cannot happen against Detroit. As mentioned earlier, the Detroit secondary has had serious problems, so Tampa Bay needs to capitalize if Detroit makes a mistake.
If Tampa Bay can hit a few deep shots, it should help the run game as well. If the Buccaneers are hitting big plays, Detroit’s aggressive safeties–Brian Branch and C.J. Gardner-Johnson–will be forced to be more conservative in helping in the run game.
Get Baker Mayfield’s legs involved:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could benefit from getting Mayfield’s leg involved in this game. More specifically, Mayfield could find success scrambling on third down.
Mayfield is not a serious threat in the run, but he does not have to be to affect this game with his legs. The Lions’ defense does not focus on stopping the quarterback running game. That has resulted in mobile quarterbacks finding success in extending plays. In this game, if receivers are not open, Mayfield could make a massive impact looking to convert first downs with his legs.
I am not suggesting that this needs to be a consistent staple of this game; however, if Mayfield occasionally uses his legs to convert on third down, Tampa Bay will be more productive offensively.
Prioritze stopping Sam LaPorta:
Rookie right end Sam LaPorta was able to play through a knee injury in the Lions matchup against the Rams. That signals he should be able to play against Tampa Bay. In turn, the Buccaneers’ defense needs to work to take LaPorta out of the game.
The Lions have been a successful team on third down for a variety of reasons. In the pass game, LaPorta and Amon-Ra convert on third down. The offense also maintains flexibility with the run game. Tampa Bay will need to take something out of that equation.
Between St. Brown and LaPorta, the Buccaneers have a better chance of slowing down LaPorta. In part, that is because he will not be 100 percent. On top of that, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Lavonte David are quality options for stopping LaPorta.
If the Buccaneers can limit LaPorta on third down and in the red zone, the Lions offense will struggle to be miles less effective.
Prediction: Lions 28-14
I am favoring the Detroit Lions over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this NFL Playoff prediction. The Lions have already comfortably picked up one win over the Buccaneers and it seems likely that they can do it again. The Lions’ receivers should be able to find success against the Buccaneers’ corners. Specifically, St. Brown, but it would not be a shock to see Jameson Williams or Josh Reynolds have a quality game.
That provides optimism the Lions can find a decent amount of success even if the Buccaneers’ defense is stout against the run. On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay’s offense is not consistent and could help the Lions’ defense overperform typical expectations. I think the Detroit Lions get a 28-14 victory in this matchup.
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