2023 AFC Divisional Round Preview: #4 Houston Texans at #1 Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are playing the Texans in the first game of the NFL Divisional Round slate. The No. 4-seed Houston Texans will look to keep their momentum going against the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens at 4:30 EST on ESPN and ABC.
These teams played back in Week 1, where the Ravens took a convincing 25-9 win. However, these teams are a lot different five months later with each team playing some of their best football. The Houston Texans are on fire right now with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud trying to continue his phenomenal season. The Ravens are fresh off a first-round bye after locking up the No. 1 seed with a fantastic 13-4 record. Let’s look at each team’s keys to victory for the upcoming 2023 AFC Divisional Round.
Here is how the Ravens can win:
Limit big plays and keep the pressure on C.J. Stroud
Matt Hanifan had this a key to victory for the Cleveland Browns last week, but they simply could not put enough pressure on Stroud. The point still stands that if the Ravens can pressure the rookie quarterback, they can get him out of his rhythm and force him to have a bad game. The Texans failed to score more than 21 points in seven games this season and they only won two of those games. Now, it is hard to believe the high-powered Baltimore offense will not be able to break the 21-point threshold.
This is why the Ravens’ defense needs to limit big plays because it will allow their offense to control the pace of the game. The Texans scored a 76-yard and 37-yard passing touchdown last weekend against the Browns. If the Ravens make the Texans sustain drives it will force Stroud into tougher situations possibly leading to more rookie mistakes from the young signal caller.
Get the ground game going strong:
Baltimore is one of the best-rushing teams in the league, even though they do not have the highest amount of rushing yards. Baltimore finished second in the NFL in yards per carry (4.9) and fourth in rushing touchdowns (26). The Ravens need to get the ground game going to better control the pace of the game.
Also, there is no need to get cute in the red zone as long as they keep pounding the rock they should have another multiple touchdown rushing game. Finally, a good run game will take the pressure off quarterback Lamar Jackson and allow him to pick his shots in the passing game. Jackson has played well all season, so let the possible 2023 MVP make plays in the passing game based on a strong rushing attack.
How the Texans can win:
Give the keys to Stroud and let him cook:
Stroud is a franchise quarterback and he will be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL for years to come. The Texans are not fully healthy, with No. 1 wide receiver Nathaniel Dell out for the rest of the season. Plus, Baltimore’s defense is fifth in yards against per game (301.4) and No. 1 in touchdowns allowed (26). This will be a tough game for Stroud and the Texans, and I believe that rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans should let Stroud go out on his shield on Saturday.
If they are gonna lose this game they need to lose with Stroud throwing the rock. They will not outpace or outplay the Ravens and are not likely to control the game script. They won’t pull off an upset against the No. 1 Ravens if they play a conservative game. Houston should put the game in Stroud’s hands and let the young star make plays.
Force turnovers:
Houston beat the Browns with a mix of great offense and defense. The defense stepped up hugely as they had two pick-sixes in the 45-14 win. The Texans will need a bit of luck on Saturday whether that be fumbles or more interceptions. If Houston can create more turnovers it will give Stroud more chances to put up points against the stout Baltimore defense.
Turnovers could also give Houston a better field position to make life easier for their offense. The Texans defense surprised everyone once these playoffs started, but do they have another stellar performance in them for Saturday?
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 31, Houston Texans 21
My 2023 AFC Divisional Round prediction is that the Ravens will get the win. The Cinderella story will end here for the Texans as the Ravens are too much of a complete team. The Ravens do not have the best record in the playoffs with Lamar Jackson, as he is 1-3. However, this is their best chance to prove to people they are capable of winning a championship. The Ravens’ defense will keep Stroud and the Texans in check for the most part.
Also, if the Ravens are up in the second half they have shown they can bury teams in the second half. This can be seen in their games against the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins this season. The Ravens have an elite defense, a great run game and a wild card factor in Jackson.
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