2023 NFC Championship Preview: #3 Detroit Lions at #1 San Francisco 49ers
The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers are set to square off in the NFC Championship Game. The Lions are looking to continue making history. Detroit ended its playoff win drought and won a division title for the first time in 30 years. Now, they are looking to make the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. Conversely, the 49ers are looking to return to the Super Bowl after last making it in 2019. An NFC Championship victory would also help affirm the 49ers’ position atop the conference.
Will the Detroit Lions continue to make history and cement themselves as the best team in franchise history or will the 49ers return to the Super Bowl for the second time in the Mike Shanahan era? Let’s analyze how each team can find victory and predict who comes out on top.
How 49ers Win
Pressure Jared Goff:
One of the biggest keys to beating the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game is pressuring Jared Goff. The book on Goff is fairly simple. If you give him time to sit in the pocket, make reads and allow plays to develop, he can find the open man and put up points. On the contrary, if you pressure him, specifically from the interior, Goff’s process becomes rushed and he is far more careless with the football. That is when turnovers skyrocket.
The 49ers’ best chance to pressure Goff will be with its interior pass rush. The Lions’ offensive line will be without starting left guard Jonah Jackson because of a torn meniscus. That injury comes after the Lions placed starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai on IR earlier in the season. The Lions have successfully replaced Vaitai with Graham Glasgow, but they will rely on rookie Colby Sorsdal on right guard.
If the 49ers can any of their stud pash rushers lined up against Sorsdal, they will have winnable matchups. On top of that, the Lions will need to contain Nick Bosa on the edge. Thankfully, Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker have been great pass blockers.
Stop the run:
The San Fransico 49ers have a stout defense with an impressive front seven. That unit will need to step up to the plate and stop the Lions’ run game.
The 49ers must slow down the Lions’ run games to win this game. One of the reasons Detroit is effective offensively is because they remain balanced, allowing them to keep the defense guessing while utilizing play-action. If the 49ers can hold the Lions’ run game they will force more third and long situations. Additionally, the Lions will become more predictable, which will stifle its overall effectiveness.
Brock Purdy makes big plays:
The San Francisco 49ers are going to need quarterback Brock Purdy to make big plays in this matchup. The Detroit Lions have been susceptible to big plays in the passing game, struggling to contain elite wide receivers in just about every game.
The 49ers are going to have chances down the field. The defense will likely sell out to stop the run, which we will discuss in more detail later, and Purdy needs to hit those throws. In all likelihood, Brandon Aiyuk will be able to create deep separation when Detroit goes with man coverage. If Purdy can find Aiyuk and make the throw, the 49ers will have a great chance to win this game.
How Lions Win
Slow Down Christian McCaffrey:
Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in football, and the Shanahan offense is absurd, which makes him look even better. If McCaffrey has a big game, the Lions will be in rough shape.
The positive for the Lions is that they have been great against the run all season long. In the regular season, they allowed the second-fewest rushing yards yards in the league with the third-fewest yards per carry. Detroit will need to take that rush defense to San Francisco.
Detroit has also been atrocious against the pass. The Lions gave up the sixth most passing yards in the NFL while allowing the third most net yards per attempt. If they cannot stop the run, it is hard to imagine the pass defense will hold up.
Win the turnover battle:
One of the biggest keys to winning the NFC Championship Game will be winning the turnover battle. This key hinges partially on quarterback play, defensive playmaking, and a slight bit of luck.
It is fair to say that Goff and Purdy are not top-tier quarterbacks. That is not a slight, but they are not premier-level talent. With that being said, each team finds success when their signal caller plays a clean game, limits turnovers and properly distributes the ball. The quarterback who continues that trend and does not turn the ball over will greatly help their team win. If either quarterback makes mistakes, it will become a tough game to win.
The defenses in this matchup will need to create plays and capitalize on mistakes. If either team makes a turnover-worthy play, the defense can’t let them off the hook. At the same time, if either team’s high-impact defender can make a big play, it could swing a close game in their direction.
Get unexpected playmakers involved:
The Detroit Lions have a lot of offensive weapons that help make the offense flow. The most obvious playmakers are Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and David Montgomery. If the Lions want to beat the 49ers, they will need production from unexpected playmakers like Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds and Donovan Peoples-Jones.
The San Francisco 49ers have a great defense. They will likely do their best to match up with the Lions’ top playmakers. If Detroit can get production from players lower on the depth chart, they could squeak out offensive production against a great defense.
It will be interesting to see how the 49ers attempt to stop Jameson Williams. The 49ers cornerback room may not have the depth to match up with Williams. Plus, Reynolds has quietly been consistently productive. The big play ability is not as deadly with Reynolds, but he can make impactful plays on third down and in the red zone. If Wiliams or Reynolds make plays, the Lions’ offense undoubtedly put up more points.
Prediction: Lions 31-28
I am taking the underdog Detroit Lions to upset the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. I am expecting a close and competitive game, but several important factors lean in Detroit’s favor. The 49ers did not perform well against the Green Bay Packers run game, which provides optimism that Detroit can run the football. In the passing game, Detroit will have more offensive playmakers and believe they are deeper than the 49ers secondary.
On the other side of the ball, Deebo Samuel is expected to play, but Detroit could present solid matchups with C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Brian Branch. Lastly, I trust Goff in a big game more than Purdy. Despite all the factors leading in Detroit’s favor, the 49ers will still be able to put the ball in the end zone. That will make this a great game between two high-scoring offenses, and I will take the Detroit Lions to win by a score of 31-28.
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