2023 AFC Championship Preview: #3 Kansas City Chiefs at #1 Baltimore Ravens
Championship Sunday kicks off with an elite showdown that features two of the NFL’s top quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, who has an opportunity to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in his career. Mahomes, meanwhile, can advance to his fourth in five years. This marks the two’s first-ever playoff meeting, though Mahomes and the Chiefs have gotten the best of the Ravens in the regular season, winning three of their four meetings with the last being in Sept. of 2021.
Which team will represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVIII? Let’s preview and predict this much-anticipated AFC Championship and find out!
How the Chiefs will win:
Make Lamar Jackson beat you with his arm.
Jackson may be the most agile quarterback in the NFL. When he wants to, he can put stress on any defense with his legs–whether it’s by design or he’s extending a play. The biggest priority for Kansas City’s defense to is force unfavorable down-and-distance situations and contain Jackson’s legs. Make him beat you through the air. Baltimore will have Mark Andrews back in the fold, which gives Jackson another pass-catching weapon. But in shaky weather–it’s supposed to rain (no, I’m not a meteorologist)–Jackson could use his legs more often than not. Mitigating any semblance of the ground game–especially Jackson’s–is crucial to limiting Baltimore’s offense.
If you bend, don’t break.
The Ravens possess one of the NFL’s most potent offenses, especially at home. It averages 32.1 points per game and scored 34 at home in the Divisional Round against the Houston Texans. Baltimore scores touchdowns on 69.2 percent of its red zone possessions at home, the sixth-highest frequency in the league; for perspective, Kansas City ranked in the top 10 in both touchdown percentage allowed in the red zone for the season and on the road. If you stall Baltimore’s long, grueling drives and keep it close for Mahomes, you have a shot.
Sustain early down success, drives:
Baltimore owned the fifth-highest time-of-possession percentage across the NFL this season, which means its defense was on the field the fifth-least. It also sported the sixth-best third-down defense. Thus, Kansas City will need to find success on early downs in order to sustain drives. Isiah Pacheco, who’s battling multiple lower body injuries, must give KC a balanced rushing attack; its top pass catchers (Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice) must haul in important catches; Mahomes will need to make several throws against a vaunted Ravens secondary. Kansas City was tied for ninth in yards per play on first and second down (5.1) and must maintain that success Sunday.
How the Ravens will win:
Get the ground game going early and often:
Baltimore runs more often than any other team in the NFL. Kansas City was a bottom-five team in rush EPA/play allowed this season. It’s strength versus weakness. Baltimore has a litany of running back options in Justice Hill, Gus Edwards and Dalvin Cook … plus Jackson. All bring diverse skill sets that can thwart the Chiefs’ front. In general, Baltimore’s interior is better than Kansas City’s not named Chris Jones, who’s struggled against the run in the past. A successful run game makes life much more difficult for Kansas City … while opening up everything downfield.
Contain Mahomes:
Even though he’s playing his second-ever playoff game on the road, Mahomes is the best player on the field. He’s also the most experienced player on the field who’s an elite competitor. Him finding a rhythm against an elite back-seven is a nightmare scenario for Baltimore; Mahomes extending plays with his legs and his pass catchers is just as nightmarish. If it contains Mahomes–especially in the red zone-it has a good chance to win, should Jackson step up to the table.
Win the turnover battle:
I sound like a broken record–but making sure you win the turnover battle is important. Baltimore does not want to give Mahomes and Andy Reid extra bites at the apple. That’s a death wish … plain and simple.
Prediction: Ravens win 24-23
***
SUBSCRIBE to the Vendetta YouTube Channel!
SHOP for Vendetta Merch!
SUPPORT Vendetta on Patreon!
CHECK OUT our Vendetta NFL/Fantasy Football Content Here.
