2023 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates: Week 1
The 2023 NFL season is officially here, with the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs kicking off Thursday evening! Most of you have completed your fantasy football drafts already, but even if you haven’t, we both know that you’re always scouring the waiver wire to give yourself the best odds to be successful.
Each week, similar to last year, we will go over a few fantasy football breakout candidates you should consider picking up or starting (if you’re brave). Without further ado, here is our Week 1 breakout candidate list!
Van Jefferson, WR, Rams
Cooper Kupp will miss Week 1 with a hamstring injury, so Jefferson could receive a lionshare of the targets alongside Tyler Higbee in their season opener against the Seattle Seahawks.
In the final eight games without Kupp last year, Jefferson hauled in 21 catches for 342 yards and a pair of touchdowns, though all but one of those games were also without Matthew Stafford behind center. That won’t be the case in Week 1.
Seattle is a 5.5-point favorite at home and could jump out to an early lead, forcing Los Angeles–who lost practically everyone outside of Aaron Donald, one of the best defensive players in football, defensively–to play from behind. If that’s the case, they’re going to air it out if they can keep Stafford upright. There’s potential for Jefferson to have a breakout week.
Derek Carr, QB, Saints
New Orleans hosts the Tennessee Titans, who were a bottom-three pass defense last season. Conversely, Tennessee was arguably the league’s best run defense, and New Orleans has continually gotten worse at running the rock effectively since 2020.
I don’t think New Orleans will run the ball effectively against Tennessee–especially without Alvin Kamara, who’s suspended for the first three games of 2023. I’m very high on Chris Olave‘s year two potential; I’m also high on Juwan Johnson plus I’m interested to see how Michael Thomas bounces back. So there are some weapons on the outside that Carr, who’s coming off a down year, can work with.
I’m expecting New Orleans to air out early and often if they want to win this game. I’m eating the garbage.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions
This might be the riskiest pick on my list for this week. Rookie tight ends are difficult to project, especially in the opener. But Jameson Williams is suspended for the first six games and Chris Jones is expected to miss Kansas City’s season opener due to a contract dispute.
Jones holding in might indicate the Lions–who possess a top-5 offensive line–will run the ball with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery more often. Though Kansas City won’t be able to generate much of a pass rush, and LaPorta could an outlet alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown, Gibbs and Marvin Jones.
The 6-foot-4 tight end could also be a sneaky good red zone target as well, which helps his upside. It remains to be seen if LaPorta is featured in Ben Johnson’s offense right away, if at all, but that’s why he’s a possible breakout candidate this week.
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens
Flowers is the second-and-final rookie to crack our Week 1 breakout list, though I am much more confident about his role entering Week 1.
Baltimore’s offense will be transitioning into more of a pass-heavy offense with Todd Monken. If preseason was any indication, Flowers–who Trey graded as this year’s No. 1 WR heading into the draft–should receive a solid target share alongside Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman.
Flowers, with his size and speed, will be a tough cover for Houston’s secondary, so I think he will find open opportunities at all three levels. I think he will be a strong Week 1 contributor and is in line for a strong rookie season ahead if he can stay healthy.
Deon Jackson, RB, Colts
With Jonathan Taylor on the PUP list, I’m expecting Deon Jackson to be the top running back in the Colts backfield, even though they’re going by committee. The Colts’ offense will be shaky with the lack of experience Anthony Richardson has plus a lack of viable skill position players on the outside.
Shane Steichen‘s offenses have ranked in the top 10 in rushing attempts each of his last three seasons as offensive coordinator, so I expect Indianapolis to utilize their ground game behind star guard Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly. They’re going to try to ease Richardson in and limit his mistakes, plus limit Jacksonville’s offensive possessions.
While it might not be successful, I expect Jackson to be involved the most in the Colts backfield.
Who do you think is a Week 1 fantasy football breakout candidate? Let us know in the comments!
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