UFC Vegas 90 Best Bets
UFC Vegas 90 is the final fight night before a historic UFC 300, but it is not time to take our eye off the prize. The upcoming card has a few promising betting opportunities that are worth a look. Here are three of the best bets for UFC Vegas 90.
*All lines taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 2:00 p.m. on Friday, April 5.*
Chris Curtis +180
UFC Vegas 90 best bets kick off with a play on the main event. I like Chris Curtis to get the job done against Brendan Allen. Curtis is currently a +180 underdog while Allen is a -218 favorite.
This bout is a rematch. The pair first fought in 2021 and Curtis landed a knockout victory. Now, Allen is a favorite in a rematch.
A few things have changed since Curtis and Allen first fought. Allen is seemingly more confident, better from the top position, and is riding a six-fight win streak. On the other hand, Curtis has seen spotty results and has had his flaws exposed.
In recent losses, the game plan to beat Curtis has been exposed. If you use length and movement to pick at him with jabs and kicks, he can get frustrated. The problem is that Allen does not possess strong movement skills. Meanwhile, Curtis used strong takedown defense and boxing to beat Allen in their first fight. In the time since Allen has not fought an opponent with elite skills in those areas. Furthermore, Allen tends to participate in dangerous boxing exchanges. That is not a positive when at a boxing disadvantage.
I could see a world where Allen shows a strong amount of improvement in his takedown offense and gets this fight to the ground more frequently. Similarly, he could adjust his game plan on the feet to better expose Curtis’ flaws. That said, he is being lined as a -218. I would prefer not to bet on that price while projecting that a fighter is making improvements. Instead, I’ll take the fighter that has proven to be a tough matchup at a +180 price tag. That makes Curtis one of my favorite bets on UFC Vegas 90.
Morgan Charriere -118
The second bet that I like on UFC Vegas 90 is for Morgan Charriere to beat Chepe Mariscal. The bout is closely lined with Charriere sitting at -118 while Mariscal sits at -102 underdog.
Charriere should have a striking advantage in this matchup. From a holistic view, he is more technical, and athletic while having more weapons. I think the stylistic matchup plays to his advantage as well. Charriere should be able to land straight shots at will and he can land counter shots when Mariscal gets aggressive. Lastly, he should consistently land kicks to the legs and body. In my eyes, all of these advantages give Charriere the ability to win rounds while holding more knockout upside.
I do not give Mariscal much grappling upside either. I would say that he is more likely to offensively wrestle. That is especially true if Charriere is winning rounds on the feet. I don’t expect him to win rounds with takedowns. If anything, he could potentially use the clinch to stifle Charriere’s offense and dirty box.
Charriere impressed in his promotion debut and I expect his success to continue. At -118, I will gladly bet on him at UFC Vegas 90.
Alexander Hernandez ITD +100
The final bet for UFC Vegas 90 is for Alexander Hernandez to finish Damon Jackson. Hernandez is a -205 favorite with his inside-the-distance prop lined at +100.
Hernandez is going to have a massive athleticism advantage in the striking exchanges. Jackson is stiff and has poor striking defense. That should allow Hernandez to pressure Jackson and land massive strikes. On top of that, Hernandez has the grappling to ensure this fight will stay on the feet. Lastly, Hernandez has shown cardio improvements which extends his finish upside into the later rounds.
It usually does not feel good to play an inside-the-distance prop at +100. In this fight, I am willing. Hernandez has a ton of finish upside and I will take the risk. That makes this prop a solid bet for UFC Vegas 90.
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