UFC Vegas 74 Best Bets
After an absence last week, the UFC is returning with UFC Vegas 74. In all honesty, this is a tricky card from a betting perspective. I do not think it is a bad card, but there are some closely lined fights and strange numbers being thrown around. Nonetheless, it is time to take a look at three of the best bets you can make on UFC Vegas 74.
(*All lines are taken from BetMGM and are accurate as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Friday, June 2, 2023.*)
Kai Kara-France -110 & FDNGTD -120
The main event of UFC Vegas 74 features a flyweight bout between Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi which is currently lined at a pick ’em price tag. Overall, I have to separate bets on this fight. The first is Kara-France to win at -110. The second is that the fight does not go to a decision at -120.
This fight will serve as a stylistic clash between the striking of Kara-France and the grappling of Albazi. On the feet, Kara-France will be more technical and much faster. That should help him find a ton of success on the feet. Albazi is not bad in that realm; however, he is not nearly as advanced as Kara-France. On the ground, Albazi is an outstanding grappler that can control the top position while also creating submission opportunities.
I am playing Kara-France because of his takedown defense. The Australian kickboxer has made a lot of progress after being more flawed early in his career. At this point, I trust his takedown defense enough to play him in this spot.
The second bet I have in this fight is for the fight not to go the distance. I really like the idea of playing this alongside Kara-France. This is simply because both fighters have a lot of finish upside. If Kara-France can keep the fight standing, he has the power to finish the fight. I believe that is the outcome we see.
That said, Albazi can finish this fight as well — he may not be the better striker, but he has power in his hands. More importantly, his most likely win outcome is a submission. If Kara-France can not stop the takedown, he will be submitted.
Essentially, I think Kara-France will win this fight while both fighters have the ability to finish the fight. Therefore, I will bet on Kara-France and the fight to not go to a decision.
Victor Altamirano +150
At UFC Vegas 74, Victor Altamirano will fight Tim Elliott in a flyweight bout. Altamriano sits as a +150 underdog while Elliott is a -185 favorite. I am playing the underdog in this one.
Altamirano and Elliott seem destined to get into a firefight. Elliott attempts to push the pace with high-volume striking and constant wrestling. Altamirano should be more than able to keep pace in that type of fight. I trust Altamirano’s cardio more than Elliott’s. As far as skills go, Altamirano is a more dangerous striker: He has great kicks and decent boxing. The only issue with his striking is that he can throw technique out the window in favor of pace and madness. On the ground, Elliott is a solid wrestler, but Altamirano can grapple as well.
Altamirano, 32, will also be the younger fighter. Elliott, 36, is much older and has taken more damage in his career. With this fight taking place at flyweight, the younger fighter will have even more of an edge. Elliott, who previously fought under James Krause, will be fighting under a new camp for the first time since the UFC banned Glory MMA and Fitness fighters.
Overall, I like the skills of Altamirano and believe some of the outside factors favor him as well. I will gladly make a bet on him at +150.
What are your best UFC Vegas 74 bets? Let us know in the comments!
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