UFC Vegas 64 Preview and Predictions
The UFC is at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for the second week in a row. This time with UFC Vegas 64. The event is headlined by top women’s strawweight contenders Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos. The winner of that bout will be in serious contention for the next strawweight title fight. Outside of that, the card features a handful of talented fighters that are working towards the UFC rankings. I am joined by Garrett Burroughs, Chris Chick, and Jerry Walker as we preview and predict each fight on the main card.
- James: 43-33
- Garrett: 47-29
- Chris: 26-13
- Jerry Walker: 16-10
Grant Dawson vs Mark Madsen- Lightweight
James: Lightweights Grant Dawson and Mark Madsen are set to open the UFC Vegas 64 main card. Dawson and Madsen are both tremendous lightweight prospects who excel in wrestling. Madsen is the elder of the two at 35 years old. Traditionally, 35-year-old prospects are rare, but Madsen was an Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler that did not transition to MMA until after his wrestling career. This Greco-Roman career culminated in a silver medal at the 2016 games in Rio. This wrestling background has become a solid base for his MMA career. He has used that base to tally a 12-0 MMA record and a 4-0 UFC record. Meanwhile, Dawson is considerably younger as he is 28. Dawson has also gotten off to a hot start in his MMA career as he is 18-1-1. In the UFC, he is 6-0-1. The winner of this bout will prove to be the better prospect and will be knocking on the door of the rankings.
I am very interested to see how this fight plays out. Traditionally, wrestler vs wrestler matchups either result in elite wrestling scrambles or a lot of striking. Realistically, we will not know what we will get until the fight takes place. Regardless of the outcome, I like Dawson. On the ground, he is more well-rounded. He has more ways to get a takedown and has better Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. At the same time, he should be the better striker. Simply put, he seems far more comfortable on the feet than Madsen. In theory, Dawson should still be making improvements as he is still in his 20s. That could be crucial as this fight will likely be close. I will take Dawson by decision.
Garrett: Dawson via decision
Chris: Dawson via second-round submission
Jerry: Madsen via decision
#15 Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nathan Maness- Flyweight
James: At UFC Vegas 64 Nathan Maness will make his flyweight debut. Welcoming him to the division will be Tagir Ulanbekov. Ulanbekov will be a great test for Maness as he is a talented flyweight. Ulanbekov is coming off a decision loss to Tim Elliott that came due to questionable scorecards from the judges. Regardless, Ulanbekov is a solid flyweight that has gone 13-2 in MMA and 2-1 in the UFC. Maness has also been successful in the UFC as he has gone 14-2 in MMA and 3-1 in the UFC. That lone UFC loss came to Ulanbekov’s teammate Umar Nurmagomedov. No shame there as Nurmagomedov is one of the best prospects in the bantamweight division. With that in mind, it is strange to see Maness drop down a division with that being his only UFC loss.
I think this fight will be close and competitive. Maness is a solid striker. He is very long and he can pressure his opponent with volume. In addition, he is a solid grappler that can find submissions. Overall, Maness could be a lot to handle for most flyweights. However, Ulanbekov is not a great stylistic matchup. Ulanbekov excels at landing takedowns and controlling position from the top. The issue is that he does not do a lot when on top. That usually is not a major problem as his opponents struggle to get back to their feet. I would like to pick Maness in this bout. If he could provide some resistance against Ulanbekov’s grappling and outland him on the feet he could win. That is a tough ask though. Plus, his weight cut will not be easy. Maness had solid size for bantamweight. I do not know how he will make flyweight. I think this fight is close and I was leaning toward Ulanbekov. The potential weight-cut issues for Maness only solidify my original thought. I will take Ulankbekov by decision.
Garrett: Ulanbekov via submission
Chris: Maness via decision
Jerry: Ulanbekov via submission
Chase Sherman vs Josh Parisian- Heavyweight
James: I would love to explain to you how this fight found its way onto the UFC Vegas 64 main card, but I honestly have no clue. Heavyweights Chase Sherman and Josh Parisian are barely UFC-caliber fighters. They certainly are not main card talents. Parisian has been the more successful of the pair as he has gone 2-2 in the UFC. Meanwhile, Sherman is on his second stint in the UFC. The first came from 2016 to 2018 which netted a 2-5 record. He re-signed in 2020 and has gone 2-4 since. This fight is crucial for each fighter as the loser will be in danger of being cut from the promotion.
Despite each of these fighters struggling in the UFC, they have some solid skills. Sherman is a solid boxer that throws with far more output than the majority of heavyweights. He also throws solid leg kicks. Parisian is a good offensive wrestler who can take his opponent down and land ground-and-pound. He also does well in the clinch. In this fight, I expect Parisian to get inside and take Sherman down. From there, he can land ground and pound and wear on Sherman. I will take Parisian by third-round knockout.
Garrett: Sherman via TKO
Chris: Parisian via second-round TKO
Jerry: Sherman via TKO/KO
#13 Neil Magny vs #14 Daniel Rodriguez- Welterweight
James: In the co-main event of UFC Vegas 64 ranked welterweights Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez will square off. As Magny sits at No. 13 with Rodriquez sitting at No. 14 the winner will retain their ranking while the loser falls outside of the top 15. Magny has long been a staple in the welterweight rankings. His first fight in the promotion came back in 2013 and he has complied a UFC record of 19-8 since. Magny is looking to get back in the win column as he was dominated by Shavkat Rakhmonov in his last fight. In fairness to Magny, Rakhmonov has shown that he is pretty good. Meanwhile, Rodriguez is looking to pick up the most important win of his UFC career. In his last bout, he won a decision against Li Jingliang, but the judges fumbled that decision. However, if he can defeat Magny that will be irrelevant.
It is difficult to predict any Magny fight. On one hand, he is well-rounded enough to expose his opponents’ weaknesses while winning a decision. On the other hand, he does not have an elite skill that he can rely on. For Rodriguez, his go-to skill is boxing. He has tremendous hands. This is led by a good jab, various combinations, and solid bodywork. In this fight, if Rodriguez can get his hands going he will win handily. Magny will look to prevent that by entering the clinch and potentially landing takedowns. I could see both of these outcomes happening. I will take Rodriguez by decision as he has been more successful as of late.
Garrett: Rodriguez via TKO
Chris: Rodriguez via third-round TKO
Jerry: Magny via decision
No. 3 Marina Rodriguez vs No. 7 Amanda Lemos- Women’s Strawweight
James: In the main event of UFC Vegas 64 Marina Rodriguez will fight Amanda Lemos. This fight will be crucial to the women’s strawweight title picture as Rodriguez sits at No. 3 while Lemos is No. 7. You could make an argument that Rodriguez has already earned a title fight. She is currently riding a four-fight win streak that includes wins over Xiaonan Yan, Mackenzie Dern, Michelle Waterson-Gomez, and Amanda Ribas. This has helped guide Rodriguez to a 16-1-2 MMA record and 6-1-2 UFC record. Lemos has looked good in the UFC too. She has a 6-2 record in the promotion and a 12-2-1 total record. Lemos has quickly become a force in the strawweight division due to her finishing abilities. She has won four of her six UFC bouts by finish.
This bout should be fun. Both fighters strike very differently, but they are each entertaining in their own right. Rodriguez is very technical. She manages the range well and lands a lot of strikes from the outside. Her speed helps with that as well. When the fight is close, she lands knees from the clinch. Lemos’ success on the feet comes from her tremendous power. She is one of the hardest-hitting strawweights on the UFC roster. Plus, she throws massive leg kicks that deal a lot of damage. I doubt that much of this fight takes place on the ground. If it does Lemos will have the advantage. She has better submissions and Rodriguez has struggled against wrestlers in the past. The fact that this fight is five rounds will greatly play in Rodriguez’s favor. Her style is far more conducive to a five-round fight than Lemos’. I think Rodriguez will be able to avoid the knockout shots from Lemos and leave UFC Vegas 64 with a victory. I will take Rodriguez by decision.
Garrett: Rodriguez via decision
Chris: Rodriguez via decision
Jerry: Rodriguez via decision
