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UFC Vegas 62 Best Bets

UFC Vegas 62

(Photo by Buda Mendes/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

UFC Vegas 62
(Photo by Buda Mendes/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

UFC Vegas 62 Best Bets

The UFC is back with UFC Vegas 62 after a week-long break. This may not be the most bettor-friendly card, but, as always, there are still some good bets that can be made. Last time out at UFC Vegas 61, we did not have a terrible day. Nevertheless, there is room for improvement. Let’s get right into it with four of the best bets for UFC Vegas 62.

*All lines are taken from FanDuel and are accurate as of 12:30 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 14*

Viviane Araujo +168

In the main event of UFC Vegas 62, Viviane Araujo will fight Alexa Grasso. This fight should be competitive as both fighters have clear strengths in this bout.

Grasso will be the better boxer. Her volume and efficiency should help her finds success in that realm. On the other hand, Araujo will be the better grappler. She has solid takedowns; nothing too crazy but solid. On top of that, once the fight is on the ground she can go to work with her Brazilian jiu-jitsu. At the same time, Grasso has not displayed great takedown defense throughout her career. This could create an avenue to victory for Araujo.

Essentially, Araujo is a tough stylistic matchup for Grasso. With that in mind, Araujo at +168 is a solid play.

Dusko Todorovic +100

The fight outlook for Dusko Todorovic and Jordan Wright is simple. These two are going to bang. They both want to throw heavy leather and they each struggle defensively. Put these factors together and you get a knockout finish. If you want proof, the odds for this fight to end by KO/TKO and the under one-and-a-half rounds are both -260. Now, I cannot give you a -260 play and act like it is a good bet. Instead, Todorovic, the -215 favorite, to win by KO/TKO is +100. This is a good way to get a favorite at plus money.

Cub Swanson vs Jonathan Martinez to go the distance -118

Cub Swanson and Jonathan Martinez are set to get into an entertaining fight at UFC Vegas 62. I would not advise betting on either fighter in this fight. It is simply too close to pick a side.

However, the odds of this fight going the distance is -118. In my opinion, there is some recency bias in play with that line. Yes, Swanson’s last three fights have ended in a finish, but those fights are outliers in his full career. Traditionally, Swanson is only finished if he is submitted. Outside of that, he rarely wins via finish. Of his 12 losses, seven have come via submission while two have come via knockout. I know, that sounds like a lot of finish losses.

In this fight, that should not be a worry. Martinez only has two submission wins and neither came in the UFC. As far as knockouts go, Martinez has seven in his career and two in the UFC. Neither of these knockouts came against fighters as durable as Swanson. Typically, I like to include plays that are plus money, but this is still a good bet. 

Sprinkle of the Week: Viviane Araujo by Submission +1600

If you are unfamiliar with this portion of the post, sprinkle of the week is where I find a long shot that could be worth a small bet. Obviously, you do not want to put a full unit down here, rather a quarter unit or less would be more appropriate here. For UFC Vegas 62, Viviane Araujo to win by submission is that bet at +1600.

We have already discussed this fight so I will not go too in-depth here. Basically, if Araujo can find sustained success on the ground, she can work towards landing a submission. That is no slam dunk, but it is possible, and we are getting it at +1600. That makes this a good pick for sprinkle of the week.

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