UFC Vegas 61 Best Bets
The UFC best bet series was on a roll, but I stumbled last time out with the UFC Vegas 60 Best Bets. After, taking a week off, we are back with three of the best bets for UFC Vegas 61. This card has good betting opportunities to take advantage of and I also tossed in a long shot to spice things up.
*All lines are taken from FanDuel and are accurate as of 12 p.m. EST on Friday, Sept. 30 *
Mackenzie Dern via Submission -110
Mackenzie Dern to win by submission is the worse kept secret in the world of MMA betting. As a result, this line is at -110 instead of being plus money. Regardless, it is still a good bet. Dern has won 12 fights in her career and seven of which have come via submission. Meanwhile, her opponent, Yan Xiaonan, is not a great grappler. The second Dern gets this fight to the ground there will be a serious chance for her to find a submission. With this being a five-round fight, it gives her an extra to rounds two rounds to find that submission. It is not plus money, but Dern to win by submission is a great bet.
Aleksei Oleinik via Submission +260
Dern is not the only submission specialist on UFC Vegas 61. Aleksei Oleinik is quite the submission specialist himself. Oleinik has 60 wins in his MMA career. If that is not ridiculous enough, 47 of those wins have come by submission. Oleinik is 45 and his prime has certainly passed, but he can still land submission. Oleinik will fight Ilir Latifi at UFC Vegas 61. There are reasons to like Oleinik against Latifi. Latifi is a wrestler and he fought at light heavyweight for years. Oleinik will have a size advantage and he will be able to threaten submissions if Latifi looks to wrestle. Oleinik by submission is always a good bet, but Oleinik by submission at +260 is a great bet.
Brenden Allen +100
Brenden Allen will fight Krysztof Jotko at UFC Vegas 61. This fight should be close and competitive. Allen has shown that he has a well-rounded skillset. His grappling and BJJ are likely his best attributes, but his striking is not terrible. Jotko is a kickboxer with good movement. In addition, he has great takedown defense which allows him to keep the fight standing. In this bout, Allen will have more chances to find a finish as he has more power and better submission. He can also look to get into the clinch which can help him win rounds if needed. In this fight, I like Allen as he has more ways to win. Even if Jotko can defend against takedowns Allen will be able to strike with him. Plus, Allen is 26 while Jotko is 33. In theory, that means Allen is more likely to make improvements since his last fight. I like Allen to win this fight. That makes Allen at +100 a good bet.
Sprinkle of the Week: Trevin Jones via KO/TKO +550
Trevin Jones to win by KO or TKO against Raoni Barcelos is the sprinkle of the week for UFC Vegas 61. Now, if you are unfamiliar with sprinkle of the week this is not a bet you should invest a lot in. Rather, this is a small bet that could pay out nicely. At first glance, this may not seem like a great bet. Barcelos is a very good fighter that many people think highly of. However, he has struggled in his last two fights. At 35 years old, I am not confident that he turns the ship around. With that being said, Jones has a lot of power in his hands. He can deal damage when he lands. If Barcelos continues to slip, Jones could land a knockout finish. At +550 it is at least worth a sprinkle.
