UFC Paris 2023 Best Bets
The UFC octagon will be set up in Paris this weekend. The Paris fans are being given a card with a lot of local talent. The card is not the deepest from a betting perspective. Thankfully, I have found three solid plays at a plus money. At the end of the day, that sets us up for a solid betting slate. Let’s discuss three of the best bets for UFC Paris.
*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 11:00 a.m. on Friday, Sept. 1, 2023.*
Serghei Spivac +160
The UFC Paris bet slip begins at the main event. I like the underdog Serghei Spivac to spoil the party and defeat Frenchman Ciryl Gane. Spivac currently sits as a +160 underdog while Gane is a -192 favorite.
This is a mixture of styles. Spivac has a heavy grappling style while Gane is a striker. In the past, Gane has struggled against grapplers. The most obvious examples came against Jon Jones which saw his grappling defiences exposed. Those struggles were present against Francis Ngannou too. On the other hand, Spivac’s entire skill set is centered around his grappling. In the clinch, he has a good arsenal of throws. On the ground, he wears on fighters with top pressure and throws massive ground-and-pound. In extension to that, he has great mat returns which allows him to keep the fight on the ground.
The challenge for Spivac will be to track down the quick and elusive Gane. That does not suede me, however. That is because Spivac’s grappling is tiring. Once he lands a takedown, he uses ground-and-pound to force fighters to work up. He then lands a mat return. This up-and-down pacing is tough on fighters. In this fight, that taxing grappling can zap Gane’s footwork and movement. In turn, once he lands the first takedown the following attempts should come easier.
All of this could be for nothing if Gane lands an early strike that hurts Spivac. Still, that is less of a concern to me when we are betting at a +160 price tag. Despite the risks present, I like Spivac as one of my favorite bets for UFC Paris.
Manon Fiorot -3.5 +100
The only favorite that will be included in the UFC Paris best bets is Manon Fiorot. Fiorot sits as a -198 favorite while her opponent, Rose Namajunas, is a +164 underdog. I am not in the business of laying -198. Instead, I’ll take Fiorot on the -3.5 point spread.
If you are unaware of what an MMA point spread is, essentially this bet will cash if Fiorot gets a finish or the judges’ scorecards combine to favor her by four points or higher.
I think this fight favors Fiorot massively. This bout will be Namajunas’ flyweight debut. The issue is that she was not a big strawweight. That will be a problem in this bout. Fiorot excels at using side kicks to manage range. If opponents get over-aggressive, she lands jabs and lead hooks. Those strengths will be exaggerated since she will be taller and longer than Namajunas.
I am expecting Fiorot to control this fight with great distance management. In turn, she should win rounds clearly. Plus, she has the power advantage and has more finish upside. All of those factors make Fiorot on the point spread a solid bet for UFC Paris.
Thiago Moises +140
The final bet for UFC Paris is for Thiago Moises to beat Benoit Saint-Denis. Moises is currently lined at as a +140 underdog while Saint-Denis is a -166 favorite.
In this matchup, I slightly favor Moises. The main reason for that is because his striking is cleaner and quicker with better fundamentals. At the same time, I am concerned that Saint-Denis can put himself in bad positions which allows him to be hit clean. As far as grappling goes, these two are pretty even despite having different grappling approaches.
As far as betting goes, I think this line should be much closer. Frankly, I think +140 on Moises is too wide which makes it one of the best bets for UFC Paris.
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