UFC Austin 2023 Preview and Predictions
The UFC is taking an outstanding fight card to Houston, Texas. The six-fight main card features four fights with ranked competitors. More importantly, those fights are highly interesting and are crucial to the future of their respective divisions. The main card is set to go down on Saturday, Dec. 2, at 7:00 p.m. EST.
Join Vendetta Sports Media as we preview and predict the UFC Austin main card. You can find our prediction records below.
James: 129-74-3
Garrett: 125-78-3
Anthony: 107-65-2
Jerry: 108-62-2
Punahele Soriano vs. Dustin Stoltzfus–Middleweight Bout
James: The UFC Austin main card opens with a middleweight bout between Punahele Soriano and Dustin Stolzfus. This bout will be crucial for each fighter’s UFC career. Soriano has been more successful between the two fighters. At 3-3, he has had solid performances against lower-tier competition and struggled against higher-quality opposition. Stoltzfus has mostly struggled in UFC and has gone 1-4 in the promotion.
This is the easier UFC Austin bout to preview. The reason for that is because, in my opinion, Soriano is a UFC-caliber fighter while Stoltzfus is not. I am not proclaiming Soriano is an elite fighter; however, he is made to beat fighters who are not above average. Sorinao is well-balanced with powerful boxing and respectable wrestling. In this fight, I trust he can keep the fight standing. If that happens, I do not trust Stoltzfus to stay safe in striking exchanges. I will take Soriano by first-round knockout.
Garrett: Sorinao via TKO
Jerry: Sorinao via KO/TKO
Anthony: Sorinao via KO/TKO
Clay Guida vs. Joaquim Silva–Lightweight Bout
James: The UFC Austin main card features a lightweight bout between Clay Guida and Joaquim Silva. Guida is a legend of MMA. The pioneer joined the UFC in 2006 and has gone 18-17 in the promotion. In that period, he fought a gauntlet of a schedule and consistently put on fan-friendly fights. Siva has had mixed results in the UFC which has led to a 5-4 record. In his nine-fight run, he has consistently fought talented lightweights.
Guida is far from his prime. At 41, he is simply not as efficient as he once was. This is largely because his takedowns are not as strong, he is not as quick, and he struggles to weaponize his cardio. On a positive note, he can still expose grappling and cardio flaws in his opponent’s skill set.
Silva has a lot of paths to finishing a fight. This begins with his punching power. Silva is capable of landing massive counters that deal serious damage. Despite never landing a submission in the UFC, he is dangerous on the mat as well.
I do not think this bout is a good matchup for Guida. Most importantly, it is evident he is declining. On top of that, Guida is very active and throws a ton of strikes. That will give Silva windows to land massive counters. Guida also lacks the power to punish Silva for making mistakes in striking exchanges. If Guida opts to wrestle, Silva can attempt submission. I will take Silva by second-round knockout.
Garrett: Silva via decision
Jerry: Silva via decision
Anthony: Silva via decision
No. 9 Sean Brady vs. No. 11 (MW) Kelvin Gastelum–Welterweight Bout
James: At UFC Austin, Kelvin Gastelum returns to the welterweight division to fight Sean Brady. Gastelum last fought at welterweight in 2016. In his time at 170 pounds, he found success, but he struggled to make weight. In more recent times, he has struggled to stay healthy and has only fought once since the start of 2022.
On a positive note, that bout was an impressive victory over Chris Curtis. On the other hand, Brady is looking to bounce back from the first loss in his career. Before suffering a loss to Belal Muhammad, he appeared to be one of the best prospects in the welterweight division. Now, he is looking to regain that status.
In grappling exchanges, Brady has an outstanding mix of technique and physical strength, allowing him to dominantly control position once he gets on top. In addition, his BJJ skill opens the door for submission wins. On the feet, his game is not as developed, but will still throw counter hooks that deal damage and has a fair kicking game.
Gastelum has a college wrestling background, but he does not offensively grapple as much as you would expect. Instead, he opts to stand and trade. That is often done by throwing boxing combinations and leg kicks. It also helps that he throws at a high rate.
This is one of the harder fights to preview at UFC Austin. It will be very interesting to see how Brady’s offensive grappling attack does against a respected wrestler. That will be the determining factor in this bout. If it stays on the feet, Gastelum will have an edge as he is more technical and throws more. Brady should have an edge in power, however. Ultimately, I think Brady will be able to land takedowns and get to good positions early. That should help him win the early rounds. I will take Brady by decision.
Garrett: Brady via decision
Jerry: Brady via decision
Anthony: Gastelum via decision
No. 8 Rob Font vs. No. 2 (Fly) Deiveson Figueiredo–Bantamweight Bout
James: At UFC Austin, Deiveson Figueiredo is scheduled to make his bantamweight debut against Rob Font. Figueiredo, former UFC flyweight champion, is moving up a division after struggling to make the cut down to 125 pounds.
Font is an appropriate entry into the division. At this stage in his career, Font has fought a good portion of the elite bantamweights and a fight against him can help determine where Figueiredo lands in the division’s pecking order.
Font is one of the best boxers in the bantamweight division. The 36-year-old has an outstanding jab. Once he lands that jab, he will open up and throw long combinations. In turn, he spends a lot of time pressuring opponents with volume.
The issues in his skill set are his chin and defensive grappling. Font’s chin is an enigma. In the past, he has been knocked down on many occasions, but he has never been finished via strikes. Still, that flaw leads to him quickly falling behind on the judges’ scorecards. On top of that, he has shown massive flaws in defensive grappling, which was most evident in his most recent fight against Cory Sandhagen.
Figueiredo’s skill set revolves around finishing fights. On the feet, he has demonstrated powerful boxing. At flyweight, that allowed him to walk opponents down. On top of that, he has slick transitions that open up a plethora of submissions. The most impressive is his ability to set up and land his guillotine.
This is the most difficult fight to preview on UFC Austin. The fight features several questions that are difficult to answer. How will Figueiredo look at bantamweight? How will his power translate? Will Font’s durability continue to hold up? How often does Figueiredo offensively grapple? Will Font’s defensive grappling be more effective against a smaller fighter?
I do not think we have answers to those questions until the fight begins. I am leaning towards Figueiredo. It is hard to pick Font after his last performance. I am expecting Figueiredo to have a grappling-heavy game plan. That said, if he does not, Font could do serious damage in striking exchanges. I will take Figueiredo by second-round submission.
Garrett: Font vs. Figueiredo should be a lot of fun. I’ll take Font via decision but I wouldn’t be shocked if Figueiredo won somehow.
Jerry: Figueiredo via decision
Anthony: Figueiredo via decision
No. 12 Jalin Turner vs. No. 13 Bobby Green–Lightweight Bout
James: The UFC Austin co-main event previews to be a fan-friendly scrap between Jalin Turner and Bobby Green. Turner took this bout on short notice. The 6-foot-3 lightweight is looking to get back in the win column after dropping his last two bouts. A win in this bout will reestablish his spot in the rankings. Green is the exact opposite position. The veteran is entering this bout with a ton of momentum after finishing Grant Dawson and Tony Ferguson in his last two bouts.
Turner is an absurdly large lightweight. That size gifts him massive power. Turner will use his length to stay on the outside and land straight shots and big kicks. On the inside, he is capable of landing knees and elbows. Despite not grappling much, he does have lethal front chokes that provide issues to opposing grapplers.
Green is a boxer with quick hands and great head movement. In fights, he keeps his hands low. That is not standard, but it allows him to strike from unique angles. At the same time, he stays safe because he has great head movement.
The most important aspect of this fight will be how Turner approaches striking against a fighter with unique defensive movements. The best plan would be to throw kicks to all three levels. Simply put, it will be easier to land kicks rather than deal with Green’s head movement. If he kicks the leg, it should also stop Green’s footwork and movement. Meanwhile, if Green can survive the early rounds, he will have a cardio advantage late. I lean toward Turner landing big shots. I will take Turner by first-round knockout.
Garrett: Green via TKO
Jerry: Turner via decision
Anthony: Turner via KO/TKO
No. 4 Beneil Dariush vs. No. 8 Arman Tsarukyan–Lightweight Bout:
James: The UFC Austin main event features a lightweight showdown between sensational grapplers Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan. In this fight, Dariush is looking to bounce back after losing a title eliminator to Charles Oliveira. Before that loss, he was riding an eight-fight win streak. On the other side, Tsarukyan is an elite fighter looking to break into the upper echelon of the lightweight division. A win over Dariush would accomplish that.
Dariush is an outstanding grappler. On the offensive side, he can land takedowns and threaten submissions. Though his defensive grappling is the aspect of his skill set that stands out–Dariush is great at combining his BJJ and wrestling skills to win high-paced scrambles. On the feet, Dariush has defensive flaws, but he has serious power in his hands.
Tsarukyan is an elite grappler in his own right. The biggest difference is that his grappling is focused on wrestling rather than BJJ. This is most evident in his takedowns. Tsarukyan can land double legs and clinch takedowns. Once he gets the fight to the ground, he has great control and throws heavy shots. In striking exchanges, Tsarukyan kicks the body and throws boxing combinations. The problem is that he leaves himself open for counters.
This bout should produce some fast-paced exchanges early. That includes striking and grappling exchanges. The only thing that I question is how each fighter’s cardio holds up. Tsarukyan’s style heavily consists of grappling and kicking–a taxing game plan.
On the other hand, this will be Dariush’s first five-round fight. I lean toward Tsarukyan because he has shown the ability to fight for five rounds. That will translate into an edge in the later rounds. Plus, I believe Tsarukyan will be the cleaner striker in the early rounds. I will take Tsarukyan by decision.
Garrett: Tsarukyan via decision
Jerry: Dariush via decision
Anthony: Tsarukyan via decision
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