UFC Austin 2023 Best Bets

UFC Austin 2023 Best Bets

The UFC has assembled a great fight card for UFC Austin. The event features several ranked matchups and a few unranked scraps. In turn, that provides a few appealing betting opportunities. Let’s discuss the three best bets you can make on UFC Austin.

*All lines are taken from Draft Kings and are accurate as of Friday, Dec. 1, at 11 a.m.*

Arman Tsarukyan & Over 2.5 Rounds -110

We are venturing outside the box to find a bet on the UFC Austin main event. The money line is too wide to play as Arman Tsarukyan sits as a -298 favorite over Beneil Dariush. Instead, I like Tsarukyan to win and the fight to go over 2.5 rounds. That bet is lined at -110.

To be clear, this bet is not available at every book. Still, the logic I will use to explain this bet can be used to justify similar bets. For example, other books offer Tsarukyan and the fight to start the second round.

The key factors of this bet are how the fight will transpire in the early stages and each fighter’s cardio in the later rounds. I am expecting to see a ton of grappling exchanges early. In the past, we have seen both fighters participate in high-paced grappling battles. That is the type of fight I expect to see early. In that clash, I doubt either fighter wins dominantly. It is unrealistic to expect high-paced grappling for five rounds, however. Once this fight goes late, Tsarukyan should have a cardio edge which will help him pull ahead.

In short, I expect this to be highly competitive early which covers the over 2.5 rounds while Tsarukyan’s cardio leads him to a win.

The one concern I have is that Dariush does not have a great striking defense. With that being said, that is a risk I am willing to endure because Tsarukyan is not an elite boxer and tends to wrestle early in fights.

All things considered, this bet is unorthodox, but I think it is a great way to get a heavy favorite at a fair price. That makes it one of my favorite bets for UFC Austin.

Joaquim Silva ITD -110

At UFC Austin Joaquim Silva will fight Clay Guida. Silva is currently a -310 favorite while Guida is a +250 underdog. I am not interested in the money line, but I like Silva to finish the fight at a -110 price tag.

I have a lot of respect for Guida. The guy is a legend and pioneer of mixed martial arts. The problem is that it’s 2023 and Guida is 41-years-old. A lot of the physical reasons that Guida was effective are diminished. The most notable are his cardio and speed. On top of that, his takedowns are not as effective.

The one aspect of Guida’s game that remains is his volume. The problem is that Silva is a dangerous counterstriker. If Guida attempts to drown him with volume, Silva can sit down on massive punches. Furthermore, if Guida looks to wrestle, Silva has slick submission skills.

It is evident Silva will have various avenues to find a finish. That makes a bet on Silva to finish this fight one of the best bets on UFC Austin.

Punahele Soriano KO -105

The final bet I like for UFC Austin is for Punahele Soriano to win by knockout against Dustin Stoltzfus. That bet is currently lined at -105.

This bet is relatively straightforward. I do not view Stoltzfus as a UFC-caliber fighter and do not like his defense in the pocket. Meanwhile, Soriano has proven to be a solid fighter with serious power. That is a bad combination for Stoltzfus.

If we want to dive into the skills further, Soriano is fairly well-rounded and should be able to fight off Stoltzfus’ takedown attempts. That keeps the fight standing where Sorinao has a big advantage.

At -105, Soriano to win by knockout is one of my favorite bets from UFC Austin.

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