UFC 283 Best Bets
UFC 283 is a massive card as it features 15 fights. That gives us a bunch of chances to find some strong betting opportunities. We did not hold any shots this week either.
Here are five of the best bets that you can make for UFC 283.
*All lines are taken from BetMGM and are accurate as of 4:00 p.m. on Friday, Jan. 20.*
Jamahal Hill vs. Glover Teixeira O1.5 Rounds -135
The UFC 283 main event features a light heavyweight title fight between Jamahal Hill and Glover Teixeira. This bout is currently lined with Hill as a -135 favorite while Teixeira is the +110 underdog. Now, I do not have a straight play in this bout. I can see either fighter winning so I am not going to bet a side. Instead, I have the over which is set at one and a half rounds with a -135 price tag.
Anytime you take the over in a light heavyweight bout you have to hold your breath for a while. That holds true with this bout too. Hill has early knockout potential while Teixeira has submission potential. Ultimately, I think the over-hits. After all, a round and a half is not that long. I think we see a Teixeira mix in some early grappling which will help this fight hit the over. Plus, if Hill is able to land early, I think Teixeira can at least make it a round and a half before the fight ends.
At -135, I will take an aggressively lined over. It helps that the two fighters have shown toughness and the ability to fight through adversity in the past too.
Jailton Almeida via First Round Submission -125
Jailton Almeida is one of the best prospects in the UFC and has proven to be a threat in two divisions. At UFC 283, he is getting a ton of respect from the oddsmakers as he sits at a -1100 favorite against Shamil Abdurakhimov. Almeida at -1100 is obviously not the bet though.
I am taking the aggressive play here with Almeida via first-round submission. I think Almeida is going to ragdoll Abdurakhimov and finish this fight early. It is the outcome that is most likely by a wide margin. To be honest, I am not even worried about Abdurakhimov defending the submissions, rather, I am worried about him opting to land a ground-and-pound TKO. That worry is not enough to stop me from placing this bet though.
As far as value goes, -125 is not the best, however, when you are able to work a -1100 favorite down to -125 it makes it possible to bet on the fight.
Mounir Lazzez +130
At UFC 283, Mounir Lazzez will take on UFC debutant Gabriel Bonfim. The debutant is the favorite as he sits at -160 while Lazzez is +130.
I am on the side of Lazzez in this fight. He is too much too soon for Bonfim. I really like Bonfim and thought highly of him after his performance on Dana White’s Contenders Series. My issue is that Lazzez is not an entry-level opponent. He has three UFC fights and has looked really solid in two of them. In addition, Bonfim does not have a massive stylistic advantage that he can take advantage of. Both fighters are high-quality strikers. They do not really strike the same though. Bonfim has better interior boxing while Lazzez is better on the outside.
I think this fight will be close. With that being said, in a close fight give me the underdog that has more UFC experience.
Warlley Alves -125
Warlley Alves finds himself at a -125 favorite against Nicolas Dalby, a +105 underdog, at UFC 283. I am riding with the favorite here.
Alves and Dalby have both had inconsistent and rocky UFC careers. The difference between the two is that Alves’ peaks are much higher. I mean, he beat Colby Covington. Plus, Alves will have a higher finish upside as he has more power and better submissions.
I am taking Alves here. Simply put, I think he is far better than Dalby which makes the -125 line strong value.
Daniel Marcos +120
The first fight of UFC 283 features a bantamweight bout between Daniel Marcos and Saimon Oliveira. Marcos is making his UFC debut and sits at +120 while Oliveira is sitting at -145.
I am on Marcos’ side. In his DWCS bout, he showed that he has UFC-caliber striking. A lot of his skills are centered around the basics. For example, he throws nasty leg kicks and has a solid jab. On the flip side, Oliveira is a wild striker and has a sick guillotine. In most cases, fundamental skills will beat the unorthodox fighter. That is why I am picking Marcos. As long as he can avoid Oliveira’s guillotine, I think he gets his hand raised.
I think Marcos wins this fight and getting him at an underdog price makes this one of the best bets you can make for UFC 283.
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