Player Props to Target for the 2022 NFL Season: Week 5
As we enter Week 5 of the NFL season, we have almost passed the quarter-way mark of the regular season. With that being said, we have seen our fair share of good and bad weeks with the player prop plays of the week. Last week, we saw our plays go 3-2 which pushes the overall, four-week record to 10-10. Travis Kelce, Romeo Doubs, and Chris Olave all hit their totals last weekend while Lamar Jackson and Christian McCaffrey both fell short. This week, we look to move our record over the .500 mark with some of my favorite plays of the week.
Mike Evans OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards vs ATL
So far in the 2022 NFL season, the Buccaneers offense hasn’t been the efficient, high-scoring offense we have become accustomed to over the past two years. However, Mike Evans has still produced week after week for Tampa Bay. This week, Evans faces a favorable matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who are ranked as the eighth-worst pass defense in all of football. So far this season, Evans has averaged 78 yards per game, and has hit this number in four out of his last five games dating back to last season. The Bucs will also most likely be without tight end Cameron Brate this week. This number for Evans seems like a good value with the consistent amount of targets he sees regularly. This player prop could get bumped up if one of the other receivers on Tampa’s roster is inactive this weekend.
Joe Burrow OVER 1.5 Pass TD @ BAL
Joe Burrow and the Bengals go on the road to Baltimore to face their divisional rivals Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Last year, Burrow torched the Ravens secondary throwing for 941 yards last season with seven touchdowns. This game could be a repeat of the two games from last year as the Ravens have the worst pass defense in the league. Burrow has thrown two touchdowns in three out of his four games this year. I expect a shootout between both teams with Burrow throwing multiple touchdowns on the day. Cincinnati isn’t the greatest red zone-efficient team this season: however, the playmakers Cincinnati has could take a 10-yard pass to the house on any given play.
Deebo Samuel OVER 4.5 Receptions @ CAR
Last week against the Rams, everyone saw the Deebo Samuel from last year. With Trey Lance done for the season, Jimmy Garoppolo has stepped in nicely for the 49ers’ offense. Samuel has been one of the few to experience the change of quarterback when looking at his stats. During the four weeks of the season, Deebo has gone over five catches three times, with the only exception being in week one when Lance was still healthy. Kyle Shanahan loves to draw up plays to get Deebo involved, and he’s Garoppolo’s favorite receiver to target throughout the game. Deebo sold on me earlier this season with his rushing yards, but I’m confident enough in this number to play him again based on the value of this play.
Terry McLaurin OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards vs TEN
McLaurin hasn’t seen the numbers he has been used to over his first couple of years in the league. You can blame Carson Wentz or you can blame Jahan Dotson for being so good so early in the season. However, Jahan Dotson is out this week against Tennessee and Curtis Samuel is also questionable for the game. McLaurin becomes the lone receiver Wentz will have available against the fifth-worst pass defense in the league. McLaurin so far has seen around seven targets per game while having three and a half receptions and 62 yards per game. I have a good feeling Scary Terry will have a huge game for the Commanders this weekend. This is one of the favorite plays this week for the player prop board.
Saquon Barkley OVER 76.5 Rushing Yards @ GB
So far this year, we saw Saquon Barkley look like the type of talent we have all expected when he came out of Penn State. This weekend, Barkley faces a favorable matchup against a Green Bay defense that has been torched on the ground multiple times this year. Against the Packers, Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, and Damien Harris all saw success this year. So far this year, Barkley is averaging 115.7 rushing yards per game, hitting the projected 76.5 number in three out of the four games. Barkley finally looks healthy this year and I expect him to continue his success this week. This is another great find, searching throughout the player prop board in terms of value.
Hopefully, we can profit once again this week and push past the .500 mark for the year. You can either tail these picks with me at your own risk, or completely fade me. All five of these plays have good value if everything goes as expected throughout the game. Check back next week to see how we did, and what we have in store for Week 6.