Player Props to Target for the 2022 NFL Season: Week 16
Well, we are three weeks away from the end of the regular season. The playoff picture is getting clearer, but plenty of spots are still up for grabs. Last week, our player props were not the greatest. We saw two injuries happen on top of straight misses.
Let’s move forward and look toward this week. This week features five plays that all have extremely great value. All of these plays will be on Saturday with Christmas on Sunday. With that being said, let’s take a look at our favorite player props of Week 16 of the NFL season.
Derek Carr OVER 217.5 Passing Yards @ PIT
The Raiders have heated up over the past five weeks going 4-1. A large amount of the success Vegas has seen is due to quarterback Derek Carr‘s improved play. Over the past five weeks, Carr has averaged 244 passing yards, with just the lone bad performance coming against the Los Angeles Rams. Vegas has also been a part of a bunch of close games as well. In their past seven games, the game was decided by one score.
This week, Carr and the Raiders offense face off against a Steelers defense that allows 238 passing yards per game. Pittsburgh has seen an improvement in recent weeks, only allowing 147 passing yards. However, in the last three games, the Steelers faced Marcus Mariota, Tyler Huntley and Sam Darnold. Carr should be able to hit this projection with the line being too low due to the Steelers’ recent success, especially if it stays a close game like recent Raiders games have gone.
J.K. Dobbins OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards @ BAL
Baltimore’s third-year running back out of Ohio State has slowly found his way back from injury in recent weeks. J.K. Dobbins had been bitten by the injury bug in his early NFL career. After suffering a season-ending torn ACL last season, Dobbins has only appeared in six games in the 2022 campaign. However, in recent weeks, Dobbins has put together two-100 yard rushing performances.
Dobbins has a good chance this week to have his third straight 100-yard performance against a bad Atlanta Falcon defense. Atlanta ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed with 130 per game, and sixth worse in their last three games by allowing 154.7 yards per game. Without Lamar Jackson once again, expect Baltimore to use a heavy dosage of their rushing attack once again this week, making Dobbins an excellent play for Week 16’s player props.
Derrick Henry OVER 109.5 Rushing Yards vs HOU
Hello, old friend. I’m happy to see this matchup once again. Back in Week 8, I played this exact play when Derrick Henry took on the Texans. I called it a lock and it was one of the most confident plays that I have played all season. Henry finished with 219 rushing yards. It hit in the first half I’m pretty sure. So, let’s jump into why this is such a great play.
First of all, Houston is dead last in the NFL with their run defense allowing 167.5 yards per game. Not good. Secondly, Ryan Tannehill is out for the game, meaning rookie quarterback Malik Willis will get the start. The last time these two teams played, Willis was the starting quarterback. With Tannehill out, Tennessee will have to rely on Henry.
Lastly, in his lifetime against Houston, Henry has just been unstoppable. The Titans running back has rushed for over 200 yards in four straight games. Henry is averaging 223 rushing yards on 30 carries against the Texans. With Tennessee playing for a spot in the playoffs, I expect Henry to repeat his past success against the Texans.
Justin Fields OVER 212.5 Passing+Rushing Yards vs BUF
Justin Fields has been one of the most exciting quarterbacks to watch in recent weeks. Yes, he’s not fully there as a passer yet, but his dual-threat ability keeps any defense on their toes defending him. In his past 10 games, Fields has only gone under this number just once, and in that game, he totaled 211 total yards.
The 3-11 Chicago Bears host the Buffalo Bills this week in a game that has blowout potential. Buffalo allows 219 passing yards through the air on the season, but only allows 15 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. However, the only true running quarterback the Bills have faced this season was Lamar Jackson, who ran for 73 yards.
With Chicago likely playing from behind most of the game, expect Fields to total a lot of yards this week, both through the air and on the ground. This is one of my favorite player props plays this week and expect I it to get bumped before game time.
Rashid Shaheed OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards @ CLE
The New Orleans Saints have been a major disappointment this season. This week, they head to Cleveland to take on the Browns. However, they’ll be without their top two wide receivers this week with both Jarvis Landry and rookie Chris Olave ruled out for the game. Introduce Rashid Shaheed, a wide receiver from Weber State who is in his first NFL season.
Shaheed has been a larger part of the New Orleans offense in recent weeks. In his last three games, Shaheed is averaging 74 yards and three receptions per game. With an increased role due to injuries, expect his usage rate to bump.
Cleveland has been decent against the pass this year, ranking as the 12th-best team in the league in passing yards allowed. However, Shaheed is a big play threat and could hit this mark with one catch. This play is riskier, but a risk I’m willing to take.
Let’s hope for a bounce-back week. You can either tail or fade these plays at your own risk. However, I am very confident in all five plays this week. Make sure you come back next week to see how we did with our player props for Week 16. Also, come back to check out our favorite player props for Week 17 of the NFL season.
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