Phillies Need More From Their Stars, Bats In Second Half: 7th-Day Stretch
It is a bit eery how similar things are for the Phillies to where they were a year ago. They headed into the All-Star break on a winning road trip that ended with three games in Miami. They are right on the National League Wild Card bubble. It could be better — as always — but it is a good outcome given the adversity they have faced. No Rhys Hoskins. A month-and-a-half without Ranger Suárez. An injury-plagued first half from their top two relievers. No game-action for Andrew Painter — MLB or otherwise. And yet the Phillies are seven games over .500 and gearing up to buy at the trade deadline.
The Phillies have added at the deadline each of the prior five seasons. But what pulled their 2022 season in a different direction than the decade of disappointments that preceded it were the pieces on the margins. For the first time in years, the Phillies had quality depth, allowing them to be a team better than the sum of its parts. Many players received minimal or no playing time during the postseason — Garrett Stubbs, Darick Hall, Nick Maton, Bailey Falter — were essential to getting them there in the first place.
The contributions around the margins are still coming. Cristian Pache has a 158 OPS+ and delivered perhaps his first signature moment as a Big Leaguer via his dramatic game-winning home run on Friday. For a few months, Kody Clemens did what Hall did last year — admirably holding down the fort for Bryce Harpe, this time preparing for a move to first base instead of recovering from a broken thumb. Cristopher Sánchez‘s emergence has given the Phillies five true starting pitchers for the first time all season. The bullpen, even with José Alvarado and Serantony Domínguez seldom simultaneously healthy since May, has been a consistently effective unit.
Yet entering the second half, the Phillies have just one player with at least 50 at-bats — noted All-Star centerfielder Nick Castellanos — sporting an OPS above .800. Five members of last year’s club (min. 100 at-bats) surpassed that threshold, including three starters, and Hoskins was just six points short. The most obvious number that stands out is Harper’s mere three home runs, the last of which came on May 25. But this is a time of year when it is ok for players to have slumps and shortcomings, as long as there is tangible evidence that a peak is coming.
That exists for Harper. He is still hitting the ball hard and making solid contact. He ranks in the 80th percentile in expected slugging percentage, which is both his second-lowest mark since the stat was first tracked in 2015 and suggests positive regression is due. Harper’s .386 OBP easily leads the team. And all of this has come during a time before when the Phillies initially expected him back from Tommy John. Harper being 18 percent above league average by OPS during that time is much closer to a feature than a bug, even if the Phillies would sure like to see some balls fly over the wall again soon.
The picture improves in similar ways for Kyle Schwarber. He ranks in the 70th percentile or better in Barrel%, xwOBA, xSLG, HardHit% and Average Exit Velocity. Schwarber delivered another patented dominant June before laboring through the first two weeks of July.
And, like Harper, there is something else to consider beyond the stat sheet — his days in left field are likely numbered. Just like last year, Schwarber is in the first percentile in Outs Above Average. But Schwarber at least made most of the routine plays last year. Even those have become an adventure in 2023. Schwarber has consistently hit better when playing left field than DHing in Philadelphia, although that may be a coincidence. And even if isn’t, Schwarber did have a 1.042 OPS in 61 plate appearances at DH in 2021 — a nearly identical figure to the one he put up in 38 PAs at first base, which made up most of his playing time in the second half after a trade to the Red Sox.
There is less to be optimistic about under the hood with Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto. Both, of course, have long track records of Major League success that temper a disappointing 100 days or so. But neither is hitting the ball nearly as (consistently) hard as they did a year ago. Turner, at least, showed more willingness to run in June, more than doubling his stolen base total from the first two months (although he is just 1-1 in July) and his defense is back to his Washington level. Both are free swingers. And as much as Hoskins’ power is missed, the value of his plate presence and patience has become more evident with each passing game.
There are ways for the Phillies to mitigate this even if these trends only partially reverse themselves. Moving Schwarber to DH, Brandon Marsh to left field, and inserting Pache or potentially prospect Johan Rojas in center would dramatically improve the club’s defense and put more speed in the lineup. Marsh is hitting just .206/.250/.353 against lefties in 2023. Rojas, the team’s No. 6 prospect thanks to 70-rated run and 65-field tools on the 20-80 scale, has performed much better in Double-A this year against righties and was slightly better against them in Single-A in 2022.
The Phillies’ offensive struggles have naturally been the main focus. But a funny thing happened in June. Suárez and Taijuan Walker performed like the team’s aces, while Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, by the numbers, did not. Wheeler fits the Harper/Schwarber mold — by both xERA and FIP, he has been incredibly unlucky in 2023. His K/9 and BB/9 are both better than last year and essentially identical to his 2021 rates when he finished second in Cy Young voting. There have been times when Wheeler hasn’t looked quite as dominant. But positive regression is likely coming his way.
Nola, meanwhile, is more in the Turner/Realmuto vein. The track record is clearly there, but it’s hard not to have flashbacks to his maddening 2021 season. Nola’s 9.1 K/9 is the lowest since his 13-start 2015 rookie season. And the extra contact is especially a bad thing because Nola is giving up more hard contact than last year. He has allowed more home runs than any pitcher in the National League. More than half have come on his knuckle curve — usually his go-to strikeout pitch. It is unfair to simplify everything down to just that. But a 4.39 ERA in a contract year isn’t what Nola or the Phillies had in mind.
Of course, free agency does not happen until November, not July. The Phillies knew well before last year that true triumph does not come this time of year. They entered the All-Star break losers of two straight and winners of 23 of their last 32. There is always some good and some bad to take in during the summer. But it is paramount for the Phillies to figure out what is real and what is just a mirage over the coming weeks to put themselves in the best position for when the stakes begin to rise.
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