NBA 2022 Offseason guide: Toronto Raptors
For a franchise that is as consistently excellent as the Toronto Raptors, a first round exit could be seen as a disappointment.
Since their 2019 championship run, though, the Raptors have seen Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Norman Powell and Danny Green exit. They’ve also spent a year displaced in Tampa Bay, where it appears that precisely zero people care about basketball. For the team to rebound as well as they have is a credit to Masai Ujiri’s warlock-like ability to unearth gems at every turn and Nick Nurse’s ability to cut and polish said gems.
The Raptors are a team that are perhaps be just a move away from returning to genuine contention. Let’s take a look at where they might make improvements this off-season.
The Roster
Just quietly, this team is really quite talented.
Fred Vanvleet deservedly made his first All-Star game this season, giving the Raps 20.7 points, 6.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals – all career highs – whilst continuing in his role as Toronto’s emotional leader. Vanvleet’s determination (he was famously undrafted back in 2012) permeates through to the rest of his teammates.
Pascal Siakam, who returned from a pre-season injury to earn his 2nd All-NBA nod, is playing career best basketball. He averaged 22.8 points, 8.5 boards and 5.3 assists. His 40 point masterpiece (amazingly in this era of NBA basketball, compiled without a three pointer) against eventual NBA finalists Boston was a sight to behold. His footwork and mastery of the mid-post reminded this writer of prime Bernard King, even for just the one game.
Both Siakam and Vanvleet provide stellar defense, setting the tone for Toronto’s suffocating resistance.
OG Anunoby and NBA Rookie Of The Year Scottie Barnes are devastating defenders, able to shut you down on ball and wreak havoc away from it. They’re both future Defensive Player of the Year candidates. Anunoby’s jump shooting has come along in leaps and bounds. He’s not the most creative type with the ball but has shown enough both off the catch and attacking close outs that he could be a consistent 20 point-per-game scorer in the future.
Barnes could reach that level, too, though he’s a very different type of player. The 20 year old is already a better ball handler and far better passer than Anunoby, able to instigate the offense for extended stretches. His shooting has a long way to go and, frankly, may never be anything more than average. That shouldn’t prove too much of an impediment though, given Barnes abilities with the ball in hand.
The Raptors often play with Siakam or Barnes as their nominal centre in an all-switching defensive nightmare of a lineup. They do have the ability to play traditionally, though, through Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher and Khem Birch.
Birch is nothing more than a solid backup, though those players have a place on a roster. Boucher is a rail thin pogo stick capable of closing out and blocking shots from remarkable distances. He’s a free agent and what he earns on the open market will be fascinating.
Achiuwa was acquired as a part of last off seasons Kyle Lowry trade. Frankly, he was less impressive that the Raptors would have hoped. His decision making was often poor and his finishing around the hoop was disappointing. He did, however, flash a decent outside stroke. After attempting just the one three pointer as a rookie in Miami, Achiuwa hit 35.9% of his 156 attempts as a Raptor.
Overall the Raptors are in a good place. Only veteran reserve forward Thad Young has more that five NBA seasons under their belt. With their best players all either pre-prime or just entering their best years (Vanvleet, aged 28, is the eldest of their top six players by minutes played) the Raptors core is only going to get better.
Team Needs
Much like the Raptors team from the mid to late 2010’s, this squad has the look of a talented team without that talisman to put them over the top.
Siakam and Vanvleet, fine players both, are not first options on a contender. Unfortunately for the Raptors there isn’t an obvious ‘star who wants out’ candidate right now. Then again, this is Ujiri we’re talking about. Toronto wasn’t on anybody’s radar as a Leonard destination back in 2019. If there is a deal to be made, trust Ujiri to sniff it out.
Could the Raps swing a deal for Bradley Beal if he finally decides he wants out of Washington? What about either of Utah’s apparently unsettled superstars? Plugging Gobert into this defense would instantly make Toronto the best defense in the NBA.
Who would the Raptors give up, though? Anunoby, with his potential to jump another level as a scorer, is probably that man. He’s on a value contract through to 2024 with a player option for another year. Just about any team would want to get their hands on him.
If Toronto don’t look to swing for the fences then what can they do to improve their current core? With a young and talented starting five, it’s the bench that often lets Toronto down. Their bench players ranked 29th in minutes played this season (behind, of course, Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks). It’s clear that Nurse doesn’t entirely trust his reserves.
Some improvement from Achiuwa would be welcome, adding to Toronto’s versatility as much as to their talent base. The team could also look to trade one of their backup bigs in Birch or Boucher, knowing that Siakam can pinch hit at the five, as can Young, though the veteran is currently an unrestricted free agent.
The Cap Sheet
As you might expect from an expert GM like Ujiri, Toronto’s cap situation is pretty positive. They’ve 11 players under contract – including all of their core players – for $114 million.
The starting backcourt of Gary Trent Jr and Vanvleet can both opt out of their deals at the end of the 2023 season and will likely be extended at some point in the next 12 months. Expect Vanvleet to opt out of his player option, signing something close to his $114 over four years maximum.
Trent Jr is a different matter. The 23 year old has improved year on year and whilst he’s a little one dimensional offensively he’s still worth more than the $17 million his deal will afford him this season. He’s likely to demand something close to $25 million per season, though, which is a little steep. If the Raptors can secure him for something in the $20-$22 million range, they’ll be thrilled. If Trent wants more, he’ll certainly have suitors.
As mentioned in the Team Needs section, Toronto needs to make upgrades to its bench. They’ll have their exceptions – a $10.3 million mid-level and $4.1 million biannual – to spend as well as a little over $8 million in trade exceptions.
Re-signing Thad Young should also be a priority. He’s getting long in the tooth but is still a fine player in smaller minutes. The team acquired him with full bird rights, so he can be signed beyond the cap. Young was paid $14 million in the last year of his deal but he’s not worth that sort of money anymore. Expect a two year deal (the 2nd year may be a team option or partial guarantee) for something in the $8-$10 million per year range.
The Draft
The Raptors sent their 1st round pick out to acquire Young, though they do hold Detroit’s 2nd rounder from an earlier trade.
With the 33rd pick, the Raps are likely to go two ways: either a wing scorer or a mobile project big man who, in time, could complete their fearsome defense.
If Toronto look to go big, there are a pair of projects that the Raptors coaching staff might back themselves to develop: Christian Koloko and Ismael Kamagate. Both are genuinely huge and terrifically athletic, with speed, agility and ranginess in their movements. They both possess good hands and if you squint hard enough there is a defensively dynamic, lob catching, Gobert type prospect in there.
Should Toronto look to augment Anunoby and Barnes with an offensively minded wing, then Michigan’s native Canadian Caleb Houstan is an obvious choice. At 6’8” with a seven foot wingspan he is genuinely wing sized and already has pro level shooting stroke. He’s an energetic player who reads the game well at both ends of the floor. He strikes this writer as a student of the game, always looking to learn.
Houstan is a below average athlete at NBA level, but people said similar things about Desmond Bane. He’s turning out OK.
