Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert is the homeless man version of Josh Allen. I’ve officially sold all my draft stock on Herbert. I’ll pass. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

It seems like every draft expert loves Justin Herbert. It’s not hard to see why. On the surface, Herbert is my kind of guy. Scout first traits, not results. You can’t teach 6-foot-6 with that kind of mobility. All the pure tools, Herbert has them. 99 percent of the time, I’ll roll this dice with this guy. I’m a sucker for size, weight, speed demons at any position. Not this time. This is my official declaration that I’m out on Justin Herbert. I’m not doing this. I’m not falling for it. Justin Herbert is just a homeless man version of Josh Allen and I am out on this one.

There are three types of quarterbacks. One that can throw it through the door. That’s Herbert. He’s sure as hell, not the kind that hits the doorknob or throws it through the keyhole. Herbert has a power fastball but it never gets to the desired location. It’s one thing to be inaccurate. It’s another thing to never hit the broad side of the barn. That’s Herbert. He’s not even accurate enough to hit the door.

I”m sure you’re already aware that I hate PFF. They are mostly trash. However, this is a really good graphic from them. Quarterbacks with the highest miss rate that is solely their fault. Nobody is worse than Herbert in the upcoming draft other than Jordan Love (who we already discussed).

Justin Herbert
(PFF)

You have to really watch Herbert play to understand this. Just looking at the box score can fool you. On the season, Herbert has thrown for 3,456 yards, 32 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. On the surface, that looks incredible. You will always take that. The problem is when you watch him play, you see a quarterback that looks great physically, but looks horrible when you watch him play. A lot of dump offs and short throws allowing the Oregon athletes to take over. The evidence shows that’s the case.

Just on throws behind the line of scrimmage, Herbert has 806 yards and 8 touchdowns. That’s the second highest mark in the country. He has 806 yards and 8 touchdowns on bubble screens and running back screens. That’s not translating to the NFL. Herbert’s average depth of target when you watch him play is just not that. Oregon doesn’t trust him. It’s all short throws. If he does chuck it deep, it’s nowhere close. Don’t let the end results dictate your thought process.

This is the difference between Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. When Allen was at Wyoming, he didn’t have athletes to win like Oregon does. Allen was throwing the ball to empty water bottles and soda cans. Unlike Herbert, when Allen made a play, it took your breath away. He has the strongest arm from a prospect I can ever remember. Yes, Allen was inaccurate (and still is) but he had no help. He did, however, have talent and can guide a team to the playoffs like he did this year. Deep ball to John Brown? No issue. Show me the week where Herbert is firing deep balls down the field? There isn’t one.

Every time I watch him, he gets worse to me. It’s nothing against Herbert either because I wanted to like him. The pure tools are everything I look for. Herbert just sucks and I can’t do it anymore. Nothing has changed. The Oregon signal caller completed 57 percent of his throws as a Junior and still can’t throw an accurate ball as a Senior. I’ve also noticed some really bad pocket awareness. If his first read isn’t there, he fleas the pocket and makes shit up. I’m not doing this anymore.

Don’t blame the Oregon offense either. Does anybody understand the team that Mario Cristobal put together? This team has dudes everywhere. A minimum of 4 of his offensive lineman will get drafted. I’m not sure anybody has had better protection all year. 5 star recruits on both sides of the ball and Oregon is extremely physical which should help any quarterback. Herbert still stinks.

I’ve seen Herbert multiple times. Jacob Eason was the better quarterback when Oregon played Washington. He laid a total egg against Arizona State and really only put up garbage time numbers when his team was out of it. Oregon won the Pac 12 over Utah 37-15 and he completed 53.8 percent that game. That’s the type of team Oregon has. What about the pathetic Rose Bowl where Wisconsin is trouting out slow ranchers and he throws for 138 yards. I’m done. No more Justin Herbert talk for me. This guy just stinks. I’ve sold all my stock on Herbert. Justin Herbert is just a homeless man version of Josh Allen.

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