Could Derek Carr Break The Top 5 For Fantasy QBs In 2022?
As most of us know, I’m probably one of the biggest Raiders fans in existence, but that doesn’t dismiss the fact that Derek Carr is primed to have a huge year for fantasy this year. I’ve prematurely been high on him in years past, but I finally think this is the year that he explodes in fantasy this year. All the stars are aligned for it, it’s now time for Derek Carr to get the job done.
The Ugly
Statistically, Derek Carr has shown improvement almost every year, but his best year came from his last year in 2021. He had 4800 yards, 23 TDs, and 14 INTs. Although, the 14 INTs can be concerning, especially when you only have 23 TDs. That’s only a 1.6 TD/INT ratio. Not ideal. However, there are some factors to look at. The Raiders did a great job moving the ball, they were 11th in total yards, and 6th in passing yards. The problem with the Raider’s offense last year was the inability to put the ball in the endzone. Blame it on the offensive playcalling or the lack of Red Zone threat, but the Raiders heavily struggled to score TDs, which makes Derek Carr’s 23 TDs not look great.
The Good
However, those problems should be fixed or at least improved now. The Raiders got Davante Adams. (I’m still geeked about it.) He should be the go-to person for the Raiders in most situations, but for sure in the Red Zone. The offensive play-calling will be way better for the Raiders with Josh McDaniels at the helm. The Patriots were 7th in Red Zone scoring (TDs only) compared to the Raiders’ 29th Red Zone Scoring. The Patriots had a rookie QB in Mac Jones and WRs like Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, and N’Keal Harry. None of those guys can touch Hunter Renfrow and now Davante Adams. Include Darren Waller into that equation, and Josh McDaniels should be in his bag with the Raiders offense.
The Bad
The top 5 Fantasy QB room will be tough to crack through for Derek Carr. Realistically, it’s probably a long shot that Carr gets here without some QBs getting injured. You’re asking him to beat out a group of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford at least. That’ll be tough to do, but maybe it’s possible. The Raiders have a tough schedule this year. They, of course, play the rest of the AFC West 6 times, but they also play a stout NFC West that includes Super Bowl Champions Los Angeles Rams, the Cardinals, and the 49ers. With probably 3 more competitive games in the Colts, Titans, and Steelers. The Raiders aren’t the pushover they used to be, I called them being 10-7 last year, and now they are on notice to at least put some scare in some teams.
The fact of the matter is that in at least 12 games of the regular season, the Raiders are going to have to grind out a win. The Raiders’ defense isn’t great, but it’s not bad either. It’s getting better by the season and I think they’re average leaning toward above average soon. With the Raiders’ offense, I can only imagine the Raiders will be in a lot of shootouts. (RIP to my blood pressure.) However, as a fantasy owner, this is an ideal situation. With great offensive weapons like Adams, Waller, and Renfrow, and an average defense, that is only a recipe for success for fantasy QBs. If Derek Carr was able to get 4,800 yards with Waller missing games, questionable play-calling, and a season full of turmoil, why can’t he get 5,000 yards at least with a new play-caller and adding a top 3 WR into the mix?
The biggest thing for Derek Carr’s fantasy owners will be his TD production. Someway, somehow, he’s got to put the ball in the end zone. He was top 5 in passing yards and was… (hold on, let me scroll) 13th in TDs. We just can’t have that. So no, I don’t think Derek Carr is a top 5 fantasy QB (I’m hoping he is), but I do think he should be a lock for top 10 fantasy QB. When those 7 QBs are off the board, start looking at Carr to be your fantasy QB. I can’t see how this goes poorly, and I have 4 eyes.
