Is Aaron Jones An Overrated Fantasy Running Back in 2021?
Don’t get me wrong, Aaron Jones is a fantastic NFL running back, and I really do wish Matt LaFleur would give him the volume he deserves to become an Alvin Kamara type producer in fantasy football. However, LaFleur doesn’t do that, which is exactly the reason we may need to rethink Aaron Jones’ fantasy value.
To start, as Jamaal Williams has left, Aaron Jones should see a similar, if not a greater amount of receiving work, whether that be out of the backfield or even lined up out wide like he did so often last season. This does bode well for his upside as well as giving him a safer floor and allows for him to not be as dependent on scoring touchdowns to score fantasy points like many other running backs.
My problem with Jones isn’t really with his talent or his work in the receiving game. It’s simply if he’ll get the touches he needs to be elite. With A.J. Dillon looking like a beast in the tail-end of the season last year, it’s hard to imagine that he doesn’t get around at least 10 carries on average. After watching a lot of Packers games, LaFleur would legitimately keep Jones on the field for an entire drive and then give Jamaal Williams an entire drive. It was super gross to watch and an absolute gut-punch for fellow Aaron Jones owners. What’s to say that doesn’t happen this year again, just with Dillon? In fact, say the Packers are up by 17 on the Lions, why would Aaron Jones even be in the game at that point? That’s a game in which we would see a ton of Dillon and essentially cry if we were Aaron Jones owners in fantasy.
Now I don’t want to make it sound like there’s no hope for Jones. One of his best traits is his efficiency, and in the past few years, he has been a great fantasy football option even with limited volume. I am not high on other running backs like Jonathan Taylor, who also have a lack of volume. However, the reason Jones would be a far better option than someone like Taylor, who is also in a committee, is that Jones is just way more talented and gets a lot of receiving work. Rodgers’ ability to trust in him in the pass game as well as Jones’ ability to break big runs and make the most out of his carries is exactly why Jones will still be extremely fantasy relevant.
We had a similar problem with Aaron Jones and his workload last year, and after seeing the results, I doubt this year is much different. He seems to be a lock to finish as a top twelve running back. However, I think he lacks the consistent workhorse volume and upside to finish in the top 5 like Joe Mixon, who could finally be angling towards a breakout year. The verdict on Jones would be that I wouldn’t want him as my RB 1 if I didn’t have a very solid RB 2 to pair with him, simply because Jones doesn’t have that league-winning upside himself this year. Thus, just keep in mind when drafting Aaron Jones, the Green Bay Packers are far more of a running back committee than you would think.
