Trey Lance, an FCS quarterback, is considered by some to be one of the top three QBs in the 2021 NFL draft. However, the consensus is that he is one of the rawest QBs in the draft as well. So why is his draft stock so high? Look no further than current NFL quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Josh Allen. Their impressive 2020 seasons have left many to lean away from safe and successful college QBs. Instead many are beginning to understand the importance of the physical tools that can help a QB develop in the NFL, in spite of a not so spectacular college resume. Both are helping to improve the draft stock of Trey Lance.
Trey Lance shares many similarities with Justin Herbert and Josh Allen. Coming out of college all three had excellent, but raw, physical talent. As well as a lack of any eye-popping or noteworthy tape. Whether it was because of lack of competition or a lack of surrounding talent.
When Josh Allen played at Wyoming where he carried his team every year. None of the receivers that Justin Herbert has played with are in the NFL. Dillon Mitchell was the closest to making it. The Minnesota Vikings selected Mitchell in the 7th round. However, the Vikings waived Mitchell before the season began. He never made it to any active roster since. Trey Lance only had one year as a starter, but he dominated the FCS with his physical talents. He did this despite his inexperience and his sometimes foolish decision-making.
Trey Lance does not have the tape and the resume of some of the top prospects such as Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, or even Mac Jones. However, drafting the so-called “safe pick” with a QB with less than optimal physical talent, but excellent tape can lead to trouble.
In the 2020 draft, the Dolphins selected Tua over Herbert. They assumed that the Alabama QB was the safer pick over the Oregon product. Although their futures are unclear, it is obvious that Herbert outplayed Tua in 2020. When the Bills selected Josh Allen in 2018 many mocked the Bills for not taking Josh Rosen instead. Rosen is now a third-string QB for the 49ers The Browns and the Jets picked Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Both at the time were seen as safer selections, but neither are even close to what Josh Allen is now. Even the Bears passed up on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson for Mitchell Trubisky, only because he seemed like the safer pick.
At the end of the day, raw QBs with a lot of talent could end up two different ways. Either a bust like JaMarcus Russell and Johnny Manziel. Or they can end up as superstars, like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen.
Which one will Trey Lance end up being? At this point, nobody knows. However, we will most definitely be hearing his name come draft night. Most likely sooner rather than later. And Trey Lance can thank formerly raw QBs like Justin Herbert and Josh Allen for raising his draft stock.
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