2023-24 NBA In-Season Tournament Final 4: Best Bets
The first-ever NBA In-Season Tournament is officially set, with the Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans competing for the NBA Cup. The final four tips off Thursday evening, and each player on the winning team (which will be decided Saturday) will earn $500K.
Do you want to also win $500K (don’t answer that question; call 1-800 GAMBLER if you say yes)? Let’s hop into some best bets I have ahead of the two-game slate Thursday!
(All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:00 p.m. EST)
Game 1: Milwaukee Bucks v. Indiana Pacers (5:00 p.m. EST):
Bet No. 1: Bennedict Mathurin o13.5 PTS (-110):
The Pacers and Bucks both place in the top-9 in adjusted pace, per DunksandThrees.com. The former can be prone to operate at such a chaotic rapid pace that it’ll make your head spin. Milwaukee? Not so much, even though its offense has looked much smoother in recent weeks. Anyway, Mathurin has reached the 14-point mark in five of his last eight games and scored 26 points on 9-of-18 shooting in Indiana’s first meeting against Milwaukee on Nov. 9. Apropo to nothing, but Mathurin is a hyper-competitve player that’s built for this type of environment. So I’m rolling with this play and not thinking twice about it.
Bet No. 2: Damian Lillard o7.5 AST (-104)
I’m playing the pace yet again! The Pacers are also allow opponents to take 40.7 percent of opponents’ shots to be taken at the rim and 25.3 percent in the short mid-range (~4-14ft), per Cleaning The Glass. I’m expecting Milwaukee to span the Lillard-Giannis Antetokounmpo high pick-and-roll plenty, which will allow Antetokounmpo an open runway to the rim, where he’s most dangerous. While they’ve done a good job defending the 3-point line, the Pacers still have below-average point-of-attack defense, which will allow Lillard to generate paint touches and create offense in those situations. He’s reached eight assists in four of his last six games and I think he’ll get to that mark again Thursday.
Favorite SGP? (+225):
- Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ PTS
- Tyrese Haliburton 12+ AST
- Myles Turner o1.5 3PT
Game 2: New Orleans Pelicans v. Los Angeles Lakers (9:00 p.m. EST):
Bet No. 1: LeBron James o42.5 PTS + REB + AST (-113)
LeBron James has averaged 43.2 PRA throughout the in-season tournament and 45.2 PRA his last seven postseason games last year. James has typically turned it up a notch or two when the stakes are at its greatest. The Pelicans rank just outside the top-5 in adjusted defense, but the Lakers rank are No. 6 in adjusted pace and No. 9 in average offensive possession. A lot of that is spearheaded by James, who will try to create and take of any advantage in transition. He’s only had to play one game over the last six days, so his legs will be fresh. I’m expecting another strong performance in Las Vegas–where it will practically be a home game for LA–with a chance at the NBA Cup at stake.
Bet No. 2: Lakers -2 (-108):
A similar reasoning as the one above. The Lakers haven’t gotten off the cleanest start at 13-9, playing one of the NBA’s easier schedules. The Pelicans, however, are 5-1 when CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are all healthy this season. But the Lakers have two of the the three most dominant players on the floor in James and Anthony Davis. In games with high-er stakes, I think that carries a little more extra weight. If you want to take a stab at the Pelicans ML (+114), I’m not going to argue with you. It’s a coin flip, but I’m rolling with James and Co. in this one.
Favorite SGP (+513):
- CJ McCollum 6+ AST
- Austin Reaves 15+ PTS
- Brandon Ingram 20+ PTS
- Anthony Davis 12+ REB
O.K. … so who wins it all?
Gut Pick: Lakers +230
Favorite long shot: Indiana Pacers +480
Don’t ask. Just tail (actually don’t … I’m not good at gambling.)
***
Subscribe to Vendetta’s Twitch
Subscribe to Vendetta’s YouTube
Check out the Vendetta Shop
Click here for more NBA content
