2022 NCAA Tournament West Region Preview
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No. 1 Seed Overview: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Another year, another No. 1 seed for Mark Few and company. Gonzaga rolled through the WCC yet again and enters the NCAA Tournament with a 26-3 record. The Zags were the unanimous No. 1 team in Jimmer Range’s Preseason Top 25, and their play this season certainly validated that distinction. After falling short in the 2021 national championship game, the Bulldogs are looking to capture their first national title.
Gonzaga sits at No. 1 in the KenPom rankings, with the No. 3 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and No. 7 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are also No. 1 in the NCAA NET Rankings. As is starting to become their custom, the Zags played some high-level opponents in their nonconference schedule, picking up wins against Texas, Texas Tech, and UCLA.
Floor general Andrew Nembhard is in the conversation for best point guard in the country. Drew Timme was the 2021-22 WCC Player of the Year and led the Bulldogs in scoring with 17.5 points per game on 58.8% shooting from the field. Freshman phenom Chet Holmgren, potentially the No. 1 overall selection in the 2022 NBA Draft, was the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year. He averaged 14.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 3.6 blocks per game while shooting 61% from the field and 41.2% from three. Nembhard, Timme, and Holmgren were all named to the All-WCC First Team.
Gonzaga also has an excellent supporting cast. Julian Strawther and Rasir Bolton are both phenomenal shooters who averaged double-digit points this season and were named All-WCC Honorable Mention selections. Those who don’t know any better like to call Gonzaga fraudulent because they don’t play in a power conference and have never won a national title. Make no mistake: the Zags are real title contenders.
Sleeper Team to Win Region: No. 5 UConn Huskies
This will be a very tough region for a potential sleeper to win, but UConn has an underrated ceiling. The Huskies are led by the one-two punch of guard R.J. Cole and big Adama Sanogo. Cole posts 15.7 points and over four assists per game while Sanogo averages 15 points and nine boards. That’s not even including Tyrese Martin’s contribution from the other guard spot where he shoots 42.7% from three. This UConn team has the results this season to indicate they could pull off a massive upset or take advantage in the unlikely scenario that Gonzaga is dispatched in the second round. The Huskies hold wins over two No. 2 seeds in Auburn and Villanova. At their best, they can defeat some of the best teams in the country.
Double-Digit Seed Most Likely to Make Noise: No. 13 Vermont Catamounts
I’ll give a quick little shoutout to Davidson here, because I really like them to take down Michigan State in the first round. However, an impending matchup with Duke makes me nervous about Davidson’s chances of going on a run. Vermont has a fighter’s chance to defeat Arkansas in the opening round. Beating the Razorbacks would mean beating UConn is very much on the table assuming that is who moves on. The Catamounts have an extremely efficient offense, shooting 49.4% from the field, the fourth-best mark in the nation. They are a top-30 three-point shooting team and are loaded with veterans.
Player to Watch: Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga Bulldogs
Chet Holmgren is one of the most unique prospects I can remember watching. The seven-footer can do pretty much anything you want on a basketball court and he is considered a lock for the top three selections in the 2022 NBA Draft. However, a criticism of Holmgren is that he has not performed well against the best competition. This draw for Gonzaga gives him a chance to silence the doubters and cement his spot among the top draft prospects. Most opponents will be so concerned with stopping Drew Timme in the post that it should free Holmgren up to make major contributions. He can do that from inside (73.4% on two-pointers) or outside (41.2% on three-pointers).
Honorable Mentions: Jalen Duren (Memphis), JD Notae (Arkansas), Jaden Shackelford (Alabama), R.J. Cole (UConn), Hyungjung Lee (Davidson), Paolo Banchero (Duke)
Most Intriguing First-Round Game: No. 8 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 9 Memphis Tigers
For an 8-9 matchup, this is about as good as it gets. Boise State won the Mountain West Conference regular season and tournament titles. Memphis was one of the most disappointing teams in the country until they turned it around partway through, now winners in 12 of their last 14 games. This will be a game that features an uptempo Tigers offense and a very stingy Broncos defense. Look for this contest to be decided on the boards. Memphis is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country while Boise State is equally good at defensive rebounding. Either one of these sides can give Gonzaga a challenge, and it should be a lot of fun figuring out who gets that opportunity. Memphis head coach Penny Hardaway has had plenty of talent come through the doors in the four years since he took the job, but this is his first NCAA Tournament appearance. Can he get it done?
Prediction
Gonzaga doesn’t have an easy path whatsoever and if they emerge from the West Region they will certainly have earned it. They wound up with a severely under-seeded No. 16 seed in Georgia State and have two teams in this region that have defeated the Zags in No. 2 Duke and No. 6 Alabama. I expect a few minor upsets in this region, but mostly chalk by the time the Elite Eight shakes out. I’ll take the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense in the country to meet up in the region final.
Region Final Prediction: No. 1 Gonzaga over No. 3 Texas Tech
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