2022 NCAA Tournament East Region Preview
Welcome to our 2022 NCAA Tournament coverage! For other region previews, click below!
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No. 1 Seed Overview: Baylor Bears
I thought the defending national champion Baylor Bears would fall off a cliff after losing Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, MaCio Teague, and Mark Vital – all irreplaceable contributors to the title run. It turns out that all the newcomers fit right in and Baylor is right back in the picture. Sophomore LJ Cryer has emerged as an important piece, averaging 13.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting from three. Freshman Jeremy Sochan has also had a remarkable season in the frontcourt, which is exactly what Baylor needed to stay in contention.
The Bears currently rank No. 5 on KenPom with both their offense and defense ranking in the top 15. Scott Drew’s system panned out even with major roster turnover, thrusting the Bears into the conversation for a potential title repeat.
The biggest concern regarding Baylor is how hard the Bears have been hit with injuries this season. It was just reported that leading scorer LJ Cryer will not be available for the first weekend of the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is out after suffering a season-ending injury a month ago. Key pieces James Akinjo, Adam Flagler, and Jeremy Sochan have all dealt with injuries at some point this season. Credit to head coach Scott Drew for navigating a difficult situation well enough to get Baylor a No. 1 seed, but Drew isn’t a miracle worker.
Sleeper Team to Win Region: No. 7 Murray State Racers
Murray State didn’t get a favorable draw, but don’t count out the OVC Champions that quickly. This team went 30-2 overall and reside in the top 30 on KenPom. It’s entirely possible Murray State is better than everyone realizes and makes a run to win the region, defeating teams like Kentucky and Purdue in the process. KJ Williams, Tevin Brown, and Justice Hill are a formidable trio that can pour in points, all averaging over 13 points per game. The odds are against them based on their path, but the Racers are a true sleeper in the East.
Double-Digit Seed Most Likely to Make Noise: No. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech was always a talented team, but they finally tapped into their potential towards the back half of the season. I predicted they would finally go on the run they were due for and make it to the ACC title game. Lo and behold, they went and won the whole thing, dominating North Carolina and Duke in the process. The Hokies are clicking at the right time (13-2 in last 15 games), shots are starting to fall, and they look much better than the average No. 11 seed. It’s not clear how long they can make this hot streak last, but they are No. 23 in KenPom, so the analytics are in their favor. Virginia Tech has an efficient offense, capable defense, and a ton of momentum that can get them a few more wins.
Player to Watch: Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky Wildcats
In case you’ve been living under a rock, Oscar Tshiebwe has been an absolute force this season. He is the favorite to win National Player of the Year, averaging an astounding 17.0 points and 15.1 rebounds while shooting 60.2% from the field. This guy’s bad games are a double-double. It isn’t often we see a player dominate with a skill like rebounding, but Tshiebwe manages to do it at 6’9″. He adds a dimension to Kentucky that makes them extremely hard to match up with effectively. The former West Virginia big man’s motor is ridiculously high, which will hopefully be something that keeps the Wildcats in games where outside shots aren’t readily falling.
Most Intriguing First-Round Game: No. 6 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies
This one is really interesting. Texas is undeniably talented and have a coach with Final Four pedigree in Chris Beard, but there are real chemistry concerns with this team. Once considered a Final Four contender, the Longhorns never really put it all together consistently. They picked up some really good wins as a direct result of their talent but have not been the dominant contender many expected. Virginia Tech is finally playing as a cohesive unit and it’s a beautiful thing to see. Storm Murphy and Hunter Cattoor have really stepped up in the backcourt. But can the Hokies continue their run of success against a battle-tested Big 12 opponent that could suddenly click without warning?
Prediction
Ultimately, Baylor’s injury concerns make me less confident that they get out of the East Region without taking a loss. Tough matchups await them at every turn and the Bears are vulnerable. Although I don’t love how UCLA plays with a propensity for inefficient midrange shots, the Bruins have the tournament experience (remember Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez?) and a fairly distinguishable path to the Elite Eight. In the end, I think the Kentucky Wildcats make it to the Final Four out of the East. Coach Calipari’s roster is well-constructed with virtually zero holes. It has excellent backcourt play, wing scorers, and a dominant big. If Purdue loses early, this region can really open up for them.
Region Final Prediction: No. 2 Kentucky over No. 4 UCLA
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