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Pat Mahomes

(Photo Credit: Jeff Roberson / Associated Press)

2022 AFC Divisional Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

Pat Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes. Photo Credit Associated Press Jeff Roberson

2022 AFC Divisional Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

The Jacksonville Jaguars are traveling to Kansas City, Missouri, after an impressive comeback win in the wild-card to face the Kansas City Chiefs in a battle between Patrick Mahomes and breakout long-haired star quarterback, Trevor Lawrence. The two teams are meeting for the second time this season, as the Chiefs took down the Jaguars in a Week 10 matchup by a score of 27-17.

With the Chiefs coming home to face the Jaguars again, can Mahomes and company stick a fork into Lawrence’s dreams of having a perfect Saturday schedule?

Here are three reasons why each team will win this 2022 AFC Divisional matchup, culminating with a prediction for the game.

10-8 Jacksonville Jaguars @ 14-3 Kansas City Chiefs

Saturday, Jan. 21, 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Three Reasons Why the Kansas City Chiefs Will Win

  1. Chiefs passing offense too much for Jaguars pitiful pass defense

Throughout his entire career, Mahomes and the Chiefs’ air raid offense has proven to be dominant. This year, the Chiefs rank first in touchdowns, yards, passing yards, passing touchdowns, total touchdowns, first downs, red zone attempts and red zone touchdowns.

This offense is nuclear and there is nothing stopping them, especially this pitiful Jaguars pass defense. The Jaguars are ranked 27th in opponent passing yards per game and tied for 19th in passing touchdowns allowed this season.

Safe to say, Mahomes should have a field day against this Jaguars defense.

2. Mahomes has never lost a game after a bye week

Through his six-year career, Mahomes has been unstoppable — which may be an understatement. But, after a bye-week, Mahomes is another beast, including in the playoffs.

Mahomes has 19 total touchdowns compared to only three interceptions in games after bye-weeks. That means for every interception, Mahomes would score six touchdowns. Jaguars, watch out.

3. Defense is stepping up and applying pressure

Chris Jones and the rest of the Chiefs defense has stepped up in a big way these last few weeks. Jones has become an All-Pro defensive tackle and is the best in the league right now. The rest of the Chiefs defense has followed in his footsteps. In weeks 14-18, the Chiefs’ defense has had an 81.1 QB rating against, 60.9% completion, 9-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 19 sacks, 181.8 pass yards per game and 5.6 yards per attempt.

Those numbers are crazy for this mediocre Chiefs defense. If they can keep those numbers up, we might see the Chiefs in Glendale, Arizona, soon.

Three Reasons Why the Jacksonville Jaguars Will Win

  1. Trevor Lawrence is historically good on Saturday

In his history as a quarterback, Trevor Lawrence has, miraculously, never lost a game on Saturday. That statistic stretches from high school to Clemson and now, the NFL.

I’m going to let you think about that mind-boggling stat for a little, when was the last time a QB has ever done that? Has it ever been done before?

One major way that DUUUVAL country is coming out with a win on Saturday is that Lawrence plays like himself and how he has been playing like on Saturdays for his whole career: nothing short of excellence.

2. Jaguars are the comeback kids

The hope that is both keeping the Jaguars fans in misery and in content is that they’re never out of a game. Earlier in the season, the Jaguars came back from a 27-10 deficit against the Dallas Cowboys with only five minutes left in the third quarter. Just last week, the Jaguars came back against the Los Angeles Chargers after being down 27-0 at one point.

Doug Pederson changed that. These guys can win at any moment; they’re never out of a game. With a blink of an eye, they can comeback out of nowhere. That’s how the Jaguars can win this game in Kansas City.

3. Turnovers, turnovers, and turnovers

This Jaguars defense is turning back the clock in 2022 and recovering from their defensive woes last year. They’re a huge anchor for this team and have proven to be successful for them in their playoff push.

The Jaguars are tied for the third most turnovers this season with 27 total defensive turnovers. In their last six games, this Jaguar’s defense has forced 12 turnovers. They’re hot right now, and if the Jaguars can get after Mahomes and force him to make mistakes, they can and or will win this game.

This would be a tremendous victory for the Jaguars and all the Waffle Houses across Kansas City and Jacksonville.


As most of the public is, I am taking the Chiefs in this matchup. I really can’t bet against Mahomes in this scenario. But, for all the Jaguars fans out there, this will be a close game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a game-winning field goal by Harrison Butker.

Even if the Jaguars are scorching hot right now, they won’t be able to squeeze out a win on Saturday. Mark my words though, the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence will be back, and they should be proud of the season they put together.


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