The NBA All-Star game is upon us. So whilst the league partakes in its annual mid-season break (that takes place 70% of the way through the season, but still) let’s check in once again on this season’s freshmen with the latest edition of our NBA Rookie Rankings.
And has there been a shake-up in the rankings? (with a little thanks to the trade deadline and the fabled rookie wall)
The top two have been set in stone all season; they’ve fallen considerably this time around. We have a new entry into the top 10 who was barely seeing the court a month ago. It’s a new look top 10, without a doubt.
A reminder that this ranking isn’t inclusive of the entire season. Rather, it’s simply a judgment on how the players have performed since our last rookie rankings.
1. Jalen Williams – Oklahoma City Thunder (Last Ranking: 3)
The Thunder continue to get it right on draft night. Nabbing Williams with pick 12 could prove to be one of the steals of recent drafts. He continues to give the Thunder a little bit of everything: versatile defense, playmaking, finishing and occasional deep shooting.
Thunder coach Mark Daigneault uses Williams in a variety of defensive matchups, thanks to his stout 6’6” frame and 7’2” wingspan, guarding everyone from point guards through to power forwards and the occasional small ball centre.
Offensively ‘J-Dub’ (who is definitely not J-Will) has demonstrated enough versatility to show that he might be a 3rd or even a 2nd option on a genuinely contending team. The great Jonathan Givony recently compared Williams to Bucks All-Star Khris Middleton. Far be it from me to counter Givony but I just don’t think the jump shooting will ever reach Middleton’s level. He’s shooting an even 50% from deep on reasonable volume since our last rankings, but given that only brings his average on the season up to 32.4%, it shows how far he has to come in that regard.
Williams has, though, had some big games, including a 25 point, seven rebound, six steal effort against the Lakers on a night when LeBron James did something or other. The ceiling is there. Could he become a poor man’s Jimmy Butler, perhaps?
2. Walker Kessler – Utah Jazz (LR: 4)
Rudy Gobert looks to have finally found his footing as a Minnesota Timberwolf. Luckily for them, because otherwise, that trade would look utterly awful (or at least worse than it already does) for the Wolves.
Kessler continues to impress since his ascension into the Jazz starting five. Whilst many – I include myself in this – had a sneaking suspicion that Kessler could be the latest in an astonishingly long production line of Giant White Stiffs, Kessler’s fluidity and athleticism, combined with his near perfect timing when leaping to contest a shot, already sees him as one of the NBA’s preeminent shot blockers, posting 4.8 blocks per 100 possessions – a number that puts him on the verge of those posted by the Jazz’s greatest shot blocker, the late Mark Eaton.
(Any excuse to post that clip)
The Jazz’s recent trade of – among other rotation pieces – Jarred Vanderbilt has opened up more opportunity for Kessler, who has played 30+ minutes in four of the five games since the trade, after only five such occurrences prior. Expect his production to soar.
3. Keegan Murray – Sacramento Kings (LR: 6)
The accepted trade-off for an older rookie is that whilst you may lose a little at the top end of their potential, they do generally have a higher floor.
That has proven to be the case with Murray who, as one of the older rookies in this class (certainly amongst the bigger names) doesn’t project as a high level shot creator who you could build an offense around.
However, as a key support piece who can use the threat of his dead-eye jump shot (his 41.5% on threes leads all rookies with a minimum 100 attempts by a ludicrous margin) to create space for his star teammates, Murray is perfect. Murray’s mature game has slotted in seamlessly beside Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox as a competent 3rd option for the resurgent Kings.
At the defensive end of the court, Murray averages 1.2 ‘stocks’ per game and does a reasonable job staying in front of his man.
Whilst he has shown some star flashes (30 points against the Rockets; 29 with 14 boards versus the Thunder) Murray is likely never going to be an All NBA level talent. He will, though, be a highly coveted player for a long, long time.
4. Jaden Ivey – Detroit Pistons (LR: 5)
Since Cade Cunningham was lost for the season, Ivey has – as expected – posted solid stats (he hasn’t scored in single figures since his last game of 2022) on average efficiency. Encouragingly, that efficiency has skyrocketed over the past month.
Since our last check in Ivey has averaged 14.6 points, 3.3 boards, 5.9 assists and a steal per game. Those are basically in line with his counting numbers throughout the campaign. His efficiency, however – 50/38/71 splits – is a long way north of the 42/33/73 splits he averages across the season.
Ivey is, of course, a world class athlete. He gets to the rim at will and can finish explosively. The playmaking repetitions he’s getting with Cunningham sidelined will only help him in the long run. If these recent efficiency numbers are a true indication of what Ivey can be? Look out world.
5. Jalen Duren – Detroit Pistons (LR: 8)
The NBA’s youngest player, Duren is already an interior force.
Since taking over starting duties for the Pistons, Duren is averaging a double-double (on 67% shooting, admittedly from very, very close to the cup), with 1.5 assists and close to a block per game thrown in. He leads all rookies in rebounds – though Kessler is coming for that crown – and double-doubles. He’s 5th in the entire league in offensive rebounding and eight in dunks.
Duren had his best game of the season against San Antonio, dropping 30 points, corralling 17 boards and blocking four shots. He became the second youngest player in NBA history – behind LeBron – to amass a 30 points/15 rebound game.
6. Benedict Mathurin – Indiana Pacers (LR: 2)
Consider that rookie wall hit!
The usually smooth scoring wing is shooting just 27 from downtown since our last Rookie Rankings. With that, his scoring has dropped to 12.3 points in that span against a season average of 17.2.
It’s no wonder that the surprising Pacers have sunk like a stone, winning just three of their 14 games in that time.
Mathurin has fallen away in both efficiency and pure numbers since our last check in, though encouragingly he has picked it up again in his past four outings (20.8 points over that span) so there is a chance that this is a temporary blip for the 6th overall pick.
The Pacers are certainly hoping so.
7. Paolo Banchero – Orlando Magic (LR: 1)
You think Mathurin has hit the wall? Paolo Banchero has slammed headlong into that thing!
After being an automatic 20+ points through the first half of the season, Banchero has struggled mightily since late January. His season scoring has dropped below the 20 point per game threshold thanks to a torrid shooting slump. In February alone Banchero’s shooting splits are a vomit inducing 34/4/69…yes, you did read that correctly. The Magic man is shooting just four (4) percent from beyond the arc in February.
Banchero is still able to put up numbers because of his skill on the ball, strength and aggressiveness – he still gets to the free throw line with regularity. He’s also rebounding with greater effect and still providing solid playmaking. So it’s not all bad for Banchero and the Magic.
Nonetheless, the likely winner of the Rookie of the Year award will have to rest and recuperate over the All-Star break, hoping to push the Magic into the playoff picture.
8. Jabari Smith Jr – Houston Rockets (LR: 7)
It’s not been the most impressive rookie campaign from the 3rd overall selection. It must be asked though: who could have thrived in the inmate-led asylum that is the Houston Rockets?
Without any long term, successful veterans to guide him (the recently traded Eric Gordon had long since checked out emotionally), Smith has had to learn by feel. The results haven’t always been positive.
The flashes are there, though. Especially on the defensive end. Despite his slender frame and tender years, Smith is a good rebounder and shot blocker who moves his feet well. He possesses excellent instincts away from the ball. He should be fine at that end in the long run.
If only his jump shot would fall every once in a while…
9. Jeremy Sochan – San Antonio Spurs (LR: 10)
After struggling mightily in the pre-season, Sochan has made incremental improvements to his game throughout his rookie campaign.
That is, in part at least, down to Sochan getting all the repetitions he can handle as the Spurs nakedly tank their way to the head of the Wembanyama queue.
Defensively he’s already a versatile wrecker, so pumping as much offensive advancement into Sochan as they can will only benefit the Spurs in the long run.
The benefits are starting to show. In a seven game span across mid-to-late January, Sochan averaged 18 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.7 assists. Impressively, for a young man not at all renowned for his finishing, he put up those numbers with 51/52/84 shooting splits.
10. Mark Williams – Charlotte Hornets (New entry)
It’s hard to pick another rookie that benefitted from the trade deadline more than the ex-Dookie Williams, who might have climbed higher into these ranking had the deadline been a fortnight earlier.
With veteran starter Mason Plumlee now a Clipper, the runway is clear for the athletic Williams to take off. It’s early days – the Hornets have only played four games since the deadline – but Williams is averaging 11 points and eight rebounds with 2.3 blocks thrown in for good measure.
There was serious debate around draft time as to which young, hyper-athletic big man would get picked first: Williams or Duren. Whilst Duren has made the most of the opportunity afforded him, Williams struggled to crack the Hornets rotation for the first two months of the campaign and once he eventually did was stuck behind Plumlee and his career year.
Now we’ll get a chance to see which of the two will prove the better player.
Dropping out: Andrew Nembhard
