2022-23 NBA Rookie Rankings: January
We’re about halfway through January. The holiday season part of the schedule has come and gone. It’s high time we check in on this season’s first-year men in the third edition of our NBA rookie rankings.
While the top two remain the same as they have all season (spoiler alert) there are some substantial changes below those two. Expect that movement to continue. We’re now past the halfway point in most teams’ schedules and this is the point where we start to see players run headlong into the infamous ‘rookie wall’.
Whilst that means some of our first-year players could drop off from this list in the coming month it also grants the opportunity for others to get their moment.
A reminder that this ranking isn’t inclusive of the entire season. Rather, it’s simply a judgment of how the players have performed since our last rookie rankings.
1. Paolo Banchero – Orlando Magic (Last Ranking: 1)
The Magic’s Manchild keeps rolling on.
Banchero is taking similar shots to those he had through the opening two months of the season and is now pairing that with increased efficiency. The number one pick is shooting 71 percent at the rim and 48 percent from the mid-range since the calendar flipped over He’s showing more patience, waiting an extra half second for his defender to open up their stance or compromise their position rather than forcing the ball over or through the defense.
Banchero opened the year with a series of statements games. He posted 25 points, eight rebounds and seven assists against fellow up-and-comers in the Thunder, before hanging 30 and nine against Memphis and 25 points (with four treys) versus Golden State.
Banchero is making this Rookie of the Year race somewhat of a foregone conclusion.
2. Bennedict Mathurin – Indiana Pacers (LR: 2)
Mathurin has started the Pacers last three contests. If this continues it will clearly scupper his bid for an historic Rookie of the Year/6th Man double.
The move into the starting unit hasn’t really affected the Arizona product, though, as he put up an effortless 26 points against the Hawks’ (alleged) defense.
Whilst he’s undoubtedly going to evolve into a lethal scorer on the 1st unit, Mathurin’s scoring average from the bench (17.5 ppg) is the highest since the 1982 season, when starter/reserve stats were first kept.
3. Jalen Williams – Oklahoma City Thunder (LR: 5)
As a collegian, Williams became known for his ability to improve his game. He started as a little used reserve and developed into an eventual lottery pick over the course of his three seasons at Santa Clara.
In the pros, after not seeing the floor in four of Oklahoma City’s first five contests, Williams has worked his way into the rotation, then the starting five and is now a key player for the rebuilding Thunder.
Shooting aside – his 3PFG% sits south of 30% – Williams gives the Thunder a little dose of everything. He’s a fine defender for a rookie, a great athlete, a solid finisher and an outstanding distributor.
It’s that passing that has stood out thus far. Lots of rookies get sticky hands as they process the faster NBA game. Not Williams, though. He’s always making the extra pass. It can be a simple pass around the horn or it might be something a little more flashy. Either way, he’s already an impressive playmaker.
4. Walker Kessler – Utah Jazz (LR: 10)
Even at the moment, there was a very real possibility that the Rudy Gobert trade could be a disaster for Minnesota, given the astounding amount of draft capital they gave up, let alone the actual players involved in the swap.
Coupled with Gobert’s own lacklustre start in the Twin Cities, the play of Walker Kessler is making that trade look absolutely horrible for the Wolves in the short term, as well.
Rubbing salt into those wounds was a virtuoso performance against the team that officially drafted him: 20 points, 21 boards and a pair of blocks.
Kessler is 4th in the NBA in total blocks and is shooting a ridiculous 71.5% from the floor.
The Jazz have their Gobert replacement.
5. Jaden Ivey – Detroit Pistons (LR: 7)
Be it his court vision or his jaw-dropping athleticism, Jaden Ivey is a highlight machine in a similar vane to a young Russell Westbrook or even early career Ja Morant.
Impressively, Ivey has greatly improved his efficiency after struggling mightily in the aftermath of Cade Cunningham’s season ending injury. Ivey’s counting stats remain good, but somebody has to shoot on this moribund Pistons outfit.
Ivey, as should be expected, does most of his damage driving headlong to the hoop (his 9.5 drives per game lead all rookies) but he’s added some finesse to his drives with a developing floater and pull-up game.
6. Keegan Murray – Sacramento Kings (LR: 4)
The reanimation of the decaying corpse that was the Sacramento Kings is a great story. Keegan Murray proving himself worthy of a top four pick is just as lovely.
Murray is the only rookie currently shooting over 40% from beyond the arc (minimum 100 attempts). He combines that long range marksmanship with 1.5 ‘stocks’, demonstrating all the hallmarks of a potentially elite 3-and-D wing.
Murray is already starring within the confines if his role in Sacramento. He could well turn into an elite 2nd or 3rd option when it’s all dais and done.
7. Jabari Smith Jr. – Houston Rockets (LR: 3)
Smith’s inconsistency on the offensive side of the ball is frustrating, though he’s not exactly the only Rocket that can’t put it together from night to night. The Rox are (by design, admittedly) a hot mess.
Whilst his shooting (currently clocking in with 39/31/80 splits) should come around eventually – it may not be this season – it’s encouraging to see Smith’s defense holding up well after his initial struggles. Smith is averaging close to a block per game and a half a steal. The stats only tell half the story.
I’d encourage you to watch a Rockets game to take a look at Smith’s defensive possessions (any other reason you might have for watching Houston could border on masochism). On the ball, he moves he feet fantastically well for such a big man. He still struggles to hold his ground against more physically developed players but his ability to corral smaller guards demonstrates his switchability.
Away from the ball he’s diligent and active – two traits that many rookies don’t possess – and communicates really well.
He has a long way to go, but I think that the Rockets have themselves a beauty.
Oh, by the way, this was fun:
8. Jalen Duren – Detroit Pistons (LR: 8)
Duren may have been higher on this list had he not missed the past five games with injury, not to mention potentially missing the Pistons trip to Paris after forgetting his passport – a literal rookie mistake.
Despite those setbacks, Duren’s production can’t be denied. Since moving into the starting lineup in mid December, Duren – still just 19 years old – is pulling down 11.2 boards a contest.
Offensively he’s never going to be Nikola Jokic, or even Deandre Ayton. He has, though, already shown better touch around the hoop than former Piston All Star big man Andre Dummond, a player he’s often compared to.
9. Andrew Nembhard – Indiana Pacers (LR: 9)
The just turned 23 year old (Happy Birthday, young fella) Nembhard continues to impress as the least heralded core member of the surprising Indiana Pacers.
The Gonzaga product ranks 2nd amongst rookies in three point percentage, 3rd in assists and 4th in steals. He does all of this whilst sporting a comically low 14.4% usage rate, the lowest of the Pacers starters (for comparison, Myles Turner is 4th with 20.4) and 13th on the squad overall.
Nembhard is somebody who simply understands basketball and makes plays as a result. He’s a baller.
10. Jeremy Sochan – San Antonio Spurs (LR: Not Ranked)
One of the few bright spots to come out of San Antonio’s first genuine rebuilding season since the 1980’s, Sochan’s energy is contagious. For a team that is finding itself that is vital.
Rightly known for his defense, Sochan has picked it up offensively since our last rankings, averaging 11.3 points per game, reaching double figures in 11 of 16 outings. Encouragingly, after an abhorrent start to his career from the free throw line, Sochan and his one-handed release are connecting on a hair under 75% (30 for 41) from the charity stripe over that span.
Dropping out: AJ Griffin
