It’s week 3 of the NFL season so it’s time for game picks. As always, I will pick the week 3 games against the spread. Thus far on the season, I am now 22-9 for my game picks which you can see for yourself. Picking these games isn’t hard, you just have to find the traps that Vegas wants you to see. I’m also 5-0 on my locks of the week. This week, make sure you put a hefty portion of money on Bucs with an even spread. Without further ado, here are the picks of the week.
Thursday Night: Los Angeles Rams At San Francisco (LAR -3)
I like points so I’ll side with the 49ers. Regardless of the outcome, I expect this one to come down to the wire. A field goal probably wins this one. San Fran is under the new Shanahan regime and has played opponents tough despite the weak roster. With San Fran being home, I will side with the 49ers, but this game could go either way.
Sunday 9:30 A.M ET: Baltimore At Jacksonville – London (BAL -3.5)
It’s the London Jaguars in Wembley Stadium! Yes, don’t be surprised if the Jaguars pull off the win. Even if they don’t, take the points. Baltimore suffered a major loss along the offensive line losing Marshall Yanda for the season. The Jags also have some talent on their defensive line recording 10 sacks against Houston in week one. Sure the Ravens are 2-0 but quarterback Joe Flacco always seems to play to the level of competition. Take the Jags.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Denver At Buffalo (DEN -3)
On the surface, Denver looks like easy favorites, right? That’s what Vegas wants you to think. Let the wise guys blow their money on Denver. Buffalo has shown, despite the tanking, they won’t be an easy out this year. Sean McDermott has done a nice job with this defense and will harass Trevor Siemian. Buffalo’s ability to run the ball will hinge on their success as they were no. 1 in the NFL in rushing yards last season. Tyrod Taylor may be the perfect quarterback to elude that tough Broncos defense. I have Buffalo in a stunner.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Pittsburgh At Chicago (PIT -7.5)
The Steelers are an emotional roller coaster. Pittsburgh has shown they struggle with teams that stink in the past. Just look at their 3 point win over Cleveland in week one. Mike Tomlin’s record the past few seasons is barely over .500 when they face teams with losing records. Forget the fact that Chicago stinks, I have a tough time believing the Steelers win by more than a touchdown. Mike Glennon bounces back and at least keeps it close.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Atlanta At Detroit (ATL -3)
Some things just don’t make sense. The Lions being 3-0 is one of them. Atlanta has proved they still have the offensive firepower they did a year ago. Atlanta also matches up well with the rushers to take advantage of left tackle Greg Robinson. I like Matthew Stafford, but this Falcons defense is much better than a year ago. Take the Falcons.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Cleveland At Indianapolis (CLE -1.5)
One of these trainwrecks has to win. I can’t believe I’m saying this but I like the Browns. Hue Jackson is due for a win. Do the Browns actually have more stability than the Colts? Remember, Indy lost 46-9 against the Rams. This might be the worst roster in the league. I don’t have the courage to bet this game but if I have to pick, go Browns.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Tampa Bay At Minnesota (EVEN)
Tampa Bay is my pick to win the NFC South. If that’s going to happen, they need to win games like this. The even spread here likely indicates that Vegas has no idea whether Sam Bradford will play. If he doesn’t, bet your house Tampa wins it. Jameis Winston is showing the poise of an elite quarterback. Oh yeah, their defense is also vastly underrated. Mike Glennon threw two picks last week and was harassed. Tampa Bay is better than you think.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Houston At New England (NE -13.5)
As I told you last week with the Seattle vs. San Fran game, never pass on a spread that juicy. I don’t care that Deshaun Watson is a rookie, take those points! Houston played New England really tough in that playoff game a year ago with Brock Osweiler. Don’t forget, Houston had the number one defense last season. Why is it so crazy to think they can’t-do so again with Watson? With extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday night, I like Houston to cover. New England will win, just not by 14.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: Miami At New York Jets (MIA -6.5)
It took me awhile to come around to this thought; Adam Gase is a hell of a head coach. He’s reshaped players mentality in Miami and built a winning culture. After winning 10 games with that nightmare Ryan Tannehill, they likely do so again with Jay Cutler. The Jets are not only 0-2. They are 0-2 against the spread. The Jets may go winless so I like Miami by at least 10.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: New York Giants At Philadelphia (PHI -6)
The Giants cannot protect Eli Manning to save their life. Philadelphia is also second in the league in sacks. Philadelphia is also home. I normally like points, but I’m finding it difficult to take the Giants. The Eagles played the Chiefs really tough despite the loss. New York also has less time to prepare after playing on Monday. The Giants defense is talented. They just can win games playing doubleheaders. Take the birds.
Sunday 1 P.M. ET: New Orleans At Carolina (CAR -5.5)
Since 2014, the Saints are 1-11 in the month of September. They are also going through a bunch of turmoil as Sean Payton seems to be on the hot seat (Despite being an awesome head coach). Adrian Peterson is also causing problems as predicted. Scam Newton seems to play really great when things are going well. The Saints probably won’t give him much to worry about with that horrendous defense. Carolina wins big and jumps out to a 3-0 start.
Sunday 4:05 P.M. ET: Seattle At Tennessee (TEN -2.5)
How many times do we have to go over this? The Titans aren’t good. Just as the Raiders beat them up in week one, Tennessee is overmatched when it comes to playing elite teams. Do we honestly believe the Seahawks will lose when given points to an inferior team? Yeah, Pete Carroll has some builtin board material this week. Frankly, Seattle’s offensive line is beyond bad but who scares me as a pass rusher for the Titans? Russell Wilson finds a way to get the job done.
Sunday 4:25 P.M. ET: Cincinnati At Green Bay (GB -9)
Normally, I like the points when it comes to lines this big. The problem is, Green Bay is coming off a really bad loss. I probably wouldn’t bet this game unless I have assurances the Packers bookend tackles are going to play. The same goes for Jordy Nelson. However, if Green Bay is healthy, expect a blowout. Cincy still hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown so…..
Sunday 4:25 P.M. ET: Kansas City At Los Angeles Chargers (KC -3)
This line seems small enough to take the Chiefs. Alex Smith is on a roll. As long as the weather stays nice, look for Smith to continue to produce. I can’t take that joke of a coach Anthony Lynn to beat Andy Reid, it’s that simple. KC wins by a field goal as the worst case scenario. Take them to win regardless.
Sunday Night: Oakland At Washington (OAK -3)
The Raiders are turning into my Super Bowl pick. They absolutely have the firepower to reach those heights. Giving up 3 points on a prime time game? Take the Raiders. Oakland has way too much swag to lose to the Redskins. The Raiders are second in the NFL in yards per play. That matters.
Monday Night: Dallas At Arizona (DAL -3)
Steve Keim, Cardinals GM, has to face a harsh reality. His team doesn’t have a quarterback. Dallas is a really good team. They just ran into a buzzsaw where no one wins in Denver during the month of September. Coming off some controversy, look for Dallas to cruise against a Cardinals team that barely beat the Colts.
