Why Yankees should target Seiya Suzuki, not Cody Bellinger

Why Yankees should target Seiya Suzuki, not Cody Bellinger

Even after losing Juan Soto to the New York Mets exactly one week ago, the New York Yankees have had a busy start to free agency.

Though all of their work has come on the pitching side of things: They signed starting pitcher Max Fried to an eight-year deal, traded for Devin Williams and even acquired a pitching prospect from the rival Red Sox. If you’re going to close the gap after the amount of offensive firepower by the loss of Soto, doing so with run prevention is the best way to do it.

But they still need to prioritize offense. One name that has been floated over the last several days–especially after the Astros traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs–is outfielder Cody Bellinger. While Bellinger offers positional versatility in the outfield and at first base, let’s explain why they should really be targeting Seiya Suzuki if they’re looking to target the Cubs’ outfield.

Bellinger, 29, is far from what his 2019 self was when he won the NL MVP, two years after winning the NL Rookie of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, he’s put together solid seasons in each of the last two years, slashing .286/.340/.475 (125 OPS+) with 44 combined home runs, 175 RBIs, 52 doubles, four triples and 29 stolen bases in 260 games.

While the athletic outfielder has featured excellent whiff and strikeout rates, multiple peripherals suggest that he’s still vastly overperforming. Last year, he failed to sport marks in the 40th percentile or greater in expected batting average, slugging, barrel percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit rate; in 2022, he was hitting the ball harder, but most of the marks were still very pedestrian relative to the rest of MLB, according to Baseball Savant.

One could expect his swing to play well in Yankee stadium, but that doesn’t change that he simply hasn’t made enough hard contact. His defense would play well in center field or first base, but the latter isn’t valuable to his athletic skillset and his defense in the outfield isn’t spectacular.

Additionally, there is a need for a left-handed bat in the lineup, but the Yankees were already littered with below-league-average left-handed bats in Anthony Rizzo, Alex Verdugo, Austin Wells (playing a very taxing catcher position) and Trent Grisham. Why try to add another for the sake of him being left-handed when there are better external options?

Let’s talk about Suzuki, his teammate. He’s just one year older than Bellinger with one additional year of control, per Spotrac.

The right-handed slugger has improved in each of his first three MLB seasons at the plate. Last year, he slashed .283/.366/.482 with a career-high 21 home runs, 73 RBIs, 27 doubles, six triples and 16 stolen bases in 132 games (585 PA’s). Baseball isn’t played on a spreadsheet, but all of his underlying metrics are better, even though he strikes out more than Bellinger.

He grades in the 75th percentile or better in barrel percentage, hard-hit rate, walk rate and chase rate with above-average speed and an above-average arm in the outfield. Suzuki isn’t quite the defender Bellinger is, but the gap isn’t great enough to justify Bellinger’s offense over his.

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Not to mention: Suzuki’s cheaper! I don’t expect New York to take back the majority of Bellinger’s hefty deal in a potential trade, and I understand that Suzuki will be a DH in Chicago’s new context. But the Yankees need offense way more than anything else, which Suzuki provides more than Bellinger.

If the Yankees are looking for a left-handed bat, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Naylor, Brendan Donovan (switch), and Ryan McMahon should all be viable trade targets; Anthony Santander (switch), Carlos Santana (switch), Joc Pederson (even though he’s a DH) and Max Kepler (off a down season) aren’t terrible free-agent options.

Even though they have operated with plenty of speed since Soto’s departure, the New York Yankees don’t have to rush into the trade market to acquire Cody Bellinger instead of Seiya Suzuki if they don’t have to, I promise you.

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