2024-25 NBA Season: Which 3 Teams Qualify For 40-20 Rule?

2024-25 NBA Season: Which 3 Teams Qualify For 40-20 Rule?

We are roughly 75 percent of the way through the 2024-25 NBA Season. As the regular season winds down, let’s examine who the possible contenders for an NBA Title may be solely based on the 40-20 rule.

What is the 40-20 rule?

The 40-20 rule was coined by former Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers head coach Phil Jackson, which is used as a barometer to best predict who is an NBA contender. The rule is for the team to win 40 games before losing 20–the measure of an “elite” team.

Each of the last three and 17 of the last 18 champions have been 40-20 teams. Since the 1976 merger, only eight champions have broken the rule, so it’s a fairly big indicator.

Three teams fall under the 40-20 rule qualifications this year. Let’s dive into who those teams are!

Which 3 teams qualify?

Cleveland Cavaliers:

The Cavaliers, under first-year head coach Kenny Atkinson, have been the best team in the East all season. That doesn’t mean they’re the immediate title favorite, but they certainly belong in the conversation.

Cleveland is 47-10 — six games above the Celtics in the East standings — with the league’s most-efficient offense and seventh-best defense. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland have been the best backcourt in the NBA while Evan Mobley‘s enjoyed a breakout fourth season, making the All-Star team for the first time in his career.

We debated this early in the season, but this team deserves to be taken seriously–regardless if they’re your favorites or not to make it out of the East.

Boston Celtics:

The reigning-champion Celtics qualify under the 40-20 rule for the second consecutive season. They were one of two teams (Denver Nuggets) to do so last year, though they haven’t been as crisp as they were last season.

That hasn’t mattered much lately, however. Boston is winners of five straight and 10 of its last 12 dating back to Jan. 25, outscoring teams by 11.8 points per 100 possessions over that span.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown continue to be the head of the snake, but Jrue Holiday‘s ramping it up on both ends of the court while Payton Pritchard is the likely frontrunner for Sixth Man of the Year because of his valiant contributions.

The Celtics are currently my favorite to make it out of the East. Though let’s hope this year is more competitive than it was last year.

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Oklahoma City Thunder:

The Oklahoma City Thunder were projected to be the best team in the Western Conference this season and have surpassed people’s expectations. They are 46-11 despite being without at least one of Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein for much of the season.

Their defense has been historically good in this pace-and-space era, all things considered. They have an array of multi-positional, switchable defenders that wreak havoc. Oklahoma City owns the NBA’s best defense by over three points per 100 possessions while being incredibly disruptive (17.8 oTOV%, 1st; 5.7 BLK per 100, 6th).

The Thunder also have the MVP frontrunner in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s ascended as one of the NBA’s top shot creators and shot makers. He’s averaging 32.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 6.2 assists on 52.3/36.4/89.2 shooting splits. I’m not sure how you guard him because of how remarkably crafty he is. But that’s for NBA coaches to game plan for, not me.

Do you think there are any other worthwhile contenders? Let us know in the comments!

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