UFC Vegas 87 Best Bets
UFC Vegas 87 is not a great card from a betting perspective. The event has quite a few massive favorites. It can be a challenge to find many appealing bets on the card unless you are willing to take a stab at a massive underdog. Nonetheless, there are a few appealing spots on the card.
*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 11:00 a.m. on Friday, March 1.*
Jairzinho Rozenstruik +145
The UFC Vegas 87 main event features a heavyweight bout between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev. This is one of the few fights that does not have a massive favorite. The bout has Gaziev lined as a -175 favorite while Rozenstruik is a +145 underdog. I like the underdog shot in this matchup.
Rozenstruik will have a couple of advantages as the underdog. The most potent is his cardio and power. I would also classify him as the more technical striker. That said, the line currently has him as the underdog because of his grappling deficiencies. I typically favor grapples, but in this fight, Gaziev does not have the cardio to consistently grapple for long periods. Furthermore, I do not fully trust that he will grapple early enough.
In order for Gaziev to win this fight, he will need to find a quick finish. On the feet, Gaziev has power and could land a knockout. The catch is that Rozenstruik’s counter striking ability will be a massive threat if Gaziev is aggressive. On the ground, Gaziev will likely land takedowns; however, Rozenstruik has shown the ability to survive on the ground. Rozenstruik has only been finished on the ground against Jailton Almeida. On the contrary, he survived against Curtis Blaydes and Alistair Overeem. In comparison to Gaziev, I would label Almeida and Blaydes as much more proficient finishers.
Ultimately, I think Rozenstruik survives the early moments of this fight. If he can do that, he will be able to land a big shot once Gaziev becomes slow and stationary. In my opinion, that makes him a good underdog bet at UFC Vegas 87.
Vitor Petrino ITD -110
It is much harder to find a playable bet on the UFC Vegas 87 co-main event. Unfortunately, the fight is not lined nearly as close. Vitor Petrino currently sits as a -305 favorite while Pedro is a +245 underdog. I think the best way to approach this bout is to play the favorite to find a finish at -110.
I think this is a volatile fight that ends inside the distance. Petrino and Pedro are both dangerous fighters who could land a knockout or submission. Ultimately, I lean toward the Petrino side because his finishing ability will carry into the later rounds.
Petrino has very underrated cardio. A fighter of his size rarely carries power and technique into the late rounds. That will open up more opportunities to land a knockout shot or work to a submission. That should not outweigh the fact that could finish the fight early as well.
Petrino can finish this fight early or late while being capable of landing a knockout or submission. That type of fighter is ideal for an inside-the-distance prop. At -110, that makes it one a solid bet for UFC Vegas 87.
Steven Erceg ITD -125
The final bet that I like for UFC Vegas 87 is for Steven Erceg to finish Matt Schnell. Erceg is a -440 favorite while Schnell is a +340 underdog. Once again, I like the favorite to finish this fight. This time the price tag sits at -165.
This bet is fairly simple. Schnell is a massive underdog and usually gets finished when he loses. In seven professional losses, he has six finish losses. The decision loss was in 2013 and was the third fight of his career. Furthermore, he has two finishes losses in exhibition bouts on The Ultimate Fighter.
It should be noted that past performance does not indicate what will happen in this fight; however, Erceg has finishing abilities. In the UFC, Erceg has hurt opponents with his hands and kicks. On the regional scene, he landed a ton of submissions. That combination makes Erceg very live for a club and sub finish.
All things considered, the massive favorite can finish fights and the massive underdog can be finished. That is a strong combination for an Erceg finish victory. At -165, that makes this a strong bet for UFC Vegas 87.
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